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The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Months After It Began
- lamontcg 3y agoOr we're about to complete a large double top.
- franky47 3y agoI'm not into finance, but may I assume this is not about actual bears?
- mdp2021 3y agoThe bull hits from below to above: the object is rising. A "bullish" market is pulled upwards. The bear hits from above to below: the object is falling. A "bearish" market is pushed downwards.
- UtopiaPunk 3y agoOmg, is this where the terms come from? Finance people are full of themselves
- LeafItAlone 3y ago> Finance people are full of themselves I’m not sure I understand why using bear/bull terms makes one full of themselves?
- withinboredom 3y agoI thought y'all were just trying to rhyme.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- olddustytrail 3y agoYes, it's where the terms come from. But if using jokey terms for things is being full of themselves, where does that leave software development? The field is rife with jokes and punny naming.
- UtopiaPunk 3y ago1) My remark comes from not understanding bull and bear as jokey, but as, like, cool aggressive forces of nature to describe what a line on a chart looks like. 2) People in the software industry, also extremely full of themselves.
- withinboredom 3y agoI'd always heard (I grew up next to a cow pasture): you want to pet the bull, but run from the bear.
- mdp2021 3y agoAnd you are right to point that out, because all those senses ("horn thrust and paw slam", "domesticated vs savage") are backformations. We adopted them because they made sense. The real origin of the terms is from the early 1700: "seller of the bear skin before the bear is caught" - old proverb - was called the player that tries to deliver goods after their price has fallen (so a seller in advance). In 1709 the term was in fact 'bearskin'. Ten years later the "bull" was introduced as a counterpart - this time probably with relation to the images.
- brvsft 3y agoThe fact that bears are known to hibernate sounds like a better reason behind the term. So I looked it up because your comment just sounds like some ridiculous folklore etymology someone made up (no offense, and apparently my guess is not right either). https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/the-origins-of-the-bear-and-bull-in-the-stock-market https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/the-origins-of... > The bear came first. Etymologists point to a proverb warning that it is not wise "to sell the bear's skin before one has caught the bear." By the eighteenth century, the term bearskin was being used in the phrase "to sell (or buy) the bearskin" and in the name "bearskin jobber," referring to one selling the "bearskin." Bearskin was quickly shortened to bear, which was applied to stock that was being sold by a speculator and the speculator selling stock. ... > At about the same time, another animal symbol made its appearance in the marketplace. The term bull originally meant a speculative purchase in the expectation that stock prices would rise; the term was later applied to the person making such purchases. The animal seems to have been chosen as a fitting alter ego to the bear. Thus poet Alexander Pope wrote in 1720: > > Come fill the South Sea goblet full; > > The gods shall of our stock take care: > > Europa pleased accepts the Bull, > > And Jove with joy puts off the Bear. > This eighteenth-century animal imagery caught on, and bears and bulls have been in the stock market ever since. I'm not really satisfied with the bull explanation either, as it sounds a bit tauotological, but whatever.
- mdp2021 3y agoYes, you can check my other comment nearby at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36835497 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36835497 , which I was composing while you were composing yours. In short, > all those senses ("horn thrust and paw slam", "domesticated vs savage") are backformations. We adopted them because they made sense. But now, about > ridiculous folklore etymology someone made up (no offense, and apparently my guess is not right either) It does not work that way. An etymology as an history of a term will produce a chronicle, not yet a meaning: in 1709 somebody started to use "bearskin" out of the proverb, etc. But there is not just that: there is the meaning of terms that we recognize during that development - "horn thrust and paw slam", "domesticated vs savage", as I wrote nearby. So, what I wrote in the original is the meaning that came after the origin - what is intended (or part of what is intended). In fact, "bear" (in market speculation) comes from "bearskin", but where did they take the "bull" from (image that was construed to have a bear as a counterpart)? There you have to reason about the terms and construct a working image. There is no need to call it "ridiculous": it is normal sense attribution for jargon creation. Edit: in fact, for a study of the origin you can also consult Investopedia, "Where Did the Bull and Bear Market Get Their Names?", at https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/bull-bear-market-names/ https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/bull-bear-market-na... where you will find foremostly the images of their ways of attack. Then the origin, the "bearskin jobber", and the need to have a counterpart. Then it noted, importantly, that bets on bull and bear fights were very popular in the past centuries - which can be another origin of using those animals for a bet.
- anotherboffin 3y agoYou are correct, though my knowledge of finance is insufficient to give you much more detail.
- melling 3y agoIn the old days, we would just google it. These days ChatGPT will write a nice answer: “A bear market is a financial term used to describe a prolonged period of declining stock prices, typically by 20% or more, across various financial markets. During a bear market, investor confidence is low, and there is a prevailing sense of pessimism about the economy's future performance. It is the opposite of a bull market, which is characterized by rising stock prices and increased optimism.” It’s kind of cool to have a tutor like this. Wish it could teach math.
- mdp2021 3y agoOnly, now you have to check each output sentence, because if formerly you could suspect that an output could be a figment wit shaky sides, now it becomes the rule.
- astura 3y agoWhen stock prices are treading downwards it's known as a "bear market," when stock prices are treading upwards it's know as a "bull market." No actual animals involved.
- di4na 3y agoThe 401k flow into institutional investors did not disappear. No new sink for the money appeared. Limited supply of shares and financial products to buy and near infinite, constantly replenishing, demand for putting the money somewhere. Until the pensions get emptied (not happening for the next few decades) the trend can only be up. Money need to go somewhere. And yes, this means that it is nearly totally decoupled from "fundamentals". Same as with real estate and housing. Unless we actively force this money into the economy and wreck pensions, university endowments and charities funds, there is no way out anytime soon. The Boomers need their money somewhere. And yes. This is why productivity is down, every company has massive war chest and noone invest in fundamentals. The rise of the MBA is due to Boomers 401k, not to something fundamentally useful there.
- beebmam 3y agoAren't we seeing LESS capital in the market now with boomers retiring?
- di4na 3y agoNot yet, it is not only boomers. Also return are still high and there is low supply because shares buybacks. So even if the retirement impacted it, it will take a long time. If ever.
- Temporary_31337 3y agoProbably the boomers are not liquidating their stock market assets until very last minute - after all it’s pretty liquid so personally I would only sell if I really needed the money or had an a idea of where else to put it for a better short term return. Many boomers also have rental income from properties and other forms of savings. Finally on average people of that generation tend to save more than they need and still have money leftover when dying. So based on that I would say don’t expect heavy liquidation from the boomers ever.
- di4na 3y agoYeeeep exactly. We have pretty good data on this nowadays. I have seen some research from the french INSEE, equivalent probably exist from the OECD if you search. The data is a pita to collect and compare but it supports this scenario.
- formvoltron 3y agothis is how it works: whales with huge amounts to invest simply collude to buy everything in size. they add, add, add, add to their positions. This draws in everyone else. index funds automatically, and hedge funds that need to "outperform" the indexes. Then the whales sell. On the average they make money with this methodology.
- formvoltron 3y agoi find hacker news to be funny these days. What I wrote is the actual truth of the matter. And yet it gets downvoted. I suppose because people would rather believe something else. oh well!
- candiddevmike 3y agoAnecdotally, I've never seen so many folks laid off on LinkedIn since I've been on the platform. Some are going on 3+ months. Recruiter spam is at all time lows. Are these companies getting by with less?
- the_only_law 3y agoThey must be. I’ve been out much much longer than 3 months and I’m ruined now. I’ve had recruiters contact me talking about these roles they had that look like a perfect fit, nearly all of them ghosted me before any interview could happen. It’s totally an employers market now. Out of the few interviews I’ve managed to scrap together most have been shockingly hostile, feeling more like an interrogation than an interview. And I’m not just talking about tech companies, even the non tech companies seem to be doing this now.
- yterdy 3y agoThere's a worker's rights movement sweeping large parts of the workforce right now. Businesses are being defensive, trying to lower expectations. It's a bit of a game of chicken; they're not actually "making due", but if they show their weakness, it gives labor an advantage. So they're feigning strength.
- the_only_law 3y ago> Businesses are being defensive, trying to lower expectations. It's a bit of a game of chicken; They’re going to win. They have a much bigger war chest than me.
- bix6 3y agohttps://www.morganstanley.com/pub/content/dam/mscampaign/wealth-management/wmir-assets/gic-weekly.pdf https://www.morganstanley.com/pub/content/dam/mscampaign/wea... Struggling to copy / paste from my phone but the GIC is always worth a read “The GIC remains convicted that a rapid and strong rebound is unlikely…”
- jt2190 3y agoLet me assist > The GIC remains convicted that a rapid and strong rebound is unlikely and the profits recession is apt to worsen before a genuine rebound is possible. Underpinning our thesis are: > - decelerating real economic activity, > - weak new orders, > - high inventories and > - the lagged impact of higher rates. > Upcoming headwinds from monetary and fiscal policy, as well as negative operating leverage accompanying falling inflation and diminishing pricing power, are additional factors. (Formatted list to bullet points for easier reading.)
- throwaway5959 3y agoI guess if you doom and gloom about a recession long enough you can slow down the economy.
- throw0101a 3y agoTwenty months is about the historical average: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/how-long-do-bear-markets-last/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/how-long-do-bear-ma... * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/investing-in-a-bear-market/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/investing-in-a-bear... If you have a long-term goal (e.g., retirement) then generally you shouldn't bother worry gyrations too much: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market... Simply put away a little every month in an automated fashion and things will generally be okay: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/
- RickJWagner 3y agoYes! Read more about effective, common-sense investing at bogleheads.org. Your future self will be glad you did!
- barefeg 3y agoIf the recession is short lived compared to long term goals, would it make sense to invest more every month during that period? Or even shift capital into the market, expecting greater returns when the recession eventually ends?
- Gibbon1 3y agoThere is a simple algorithm one can use to determine how much to put in or take out based on what the market is doing month to month. I don't remember the name of it. But if the market sector is going up you increase investment by X%. Going down decrease investment by X%. I think it works mostly because it avoids going all in at the top and all out at the bottom. Which is the strategy a lot of naive investors end up doing.
- IanCal 3y agoNo, because to do that you have to have deliberately kept money out of investments, waiting for a downturn. It only works if you can predict the downturn before it happens, and how low things will go.
- frob 3y agoEvery time I click this link, it tries to redirect me to the android store to install some app. Is anyone else having this issue?
- hd4 3y agoClose to 60% of the market gain this year is the Big Tech 7 (this kind of top-heavy weighting tends to foreshadow bad economic events). The yield curve is still inverted at historic levels. There is something fundamentally very wrong in the US and global economy and it may not have manifested fully yet but it will. We're bullish for now but for how long.
- cloudking 3y ago"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett
- jdjdjdhhd 3y agoIt's just like crypto... It doesn't really mean anything