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Toyota already said it was around the corner in 2017[0]. Now it's 2023 and it's still around the corner. I'll believe it when I see it. [0] https://www.forbes.

by float4 3y ago

Toyota already said it was around the corner in 2017[0]. Now it's 2023 and it's still around the corner. I'll believe it when I see it. [0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/07/25/ultrafast-charging-solid-state-ev-batteries-around-the-corner-toyota-confirms/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/07/25/ultraf...

simbolit 3y ago
HN really needs an audio player with a certain Run DMC song on loop.
- jansan 3y ago
  I did not know there is a song from Run DMC called "Two more weeks".
amadeuspagel 3y ago
> In another five years, and if a report in a Japanese newspaper is to be believed, Toyota will have the key technology for wide-spread adoption of battery-electric vehicles: Solid-state batteries with twice the range of today’s EVs, while charging only in minutes. Well, it's six years now, but that doesn't seem that much of a delay?
- simondotau 3y ago
  Toyota are still saying it's five years away. So that's a minimum of eleven years.
  - labster 3y ago
    But why get a battery car when fusion cars are just 20 years away?
    - tiffanyg 3y ago
      Hmm, I thought 2015 for fusion? https://youtu.be/xvacBzZtYag?t=1m3s https://youtu.be/xvacBzZtYag?t=1m3s There's just too much Bannon-esque "flooding the zone" these days... And now, we wait for the entirely justified downvotes (though, this thread being so AG-ED* at this point, more likely I'm just talking to myself. Again...) * https://youtu.be/V4gJfATGr9k?t=42s https://youtu.be/V4gJfATGr9k?t=42s
- Dalewyn 3y ago
  About every 3 years[1], Toyota comes around to say they have a new battery tech coming out in about 3 years. I wish this was a stupid meme, but apparently this is more reality than meme. [1]: https://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=22960448&cid=63660976 https://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=22960448&cid=6...
- throw0101a 3y ago
  > Well, it's six years now, but that doesn't seem that much of a delay? If Tesla can work that way, why can't Toyota?
  - SyzygistSix 3y ago
    Tesla also released the Model Y 4 years ago and now it may outsell the Corolla this year. What do the waitlist and sales for the RAV4 or Prius Primes look like?
    - justsid 3y ago
      I’m in the market for a RAV4 plugin hybrid and the wait time here is at least a year if not two. I’d love a Toyota EV though, I have no interest in a Tesla so if Toyota truly entered the market I’d be all over it.
    - jdeibele 3y ago
      5 to 24 months according to this site: https://rav4resource.com/rav4-prime-availability/#:~:text=How%20long%20is%20the%20waiting,dealerships%20that%20I%20spoke%20to https://rav4resource.com/rav4-prime-availability/#:~:text=Ho... I was looking at plug-in hybrids and ran across a reference to people having to wait 2 years for a RAV4 Prime.
    - bdcravens 3y ago
      They announced the Cybertruck that year and they still haven't delivered one, and ditto for the new Roadster 2 years prior. Tesla has demonstrated that long development cycles aren't bad, especially when creating a new tech (the Model Y is built on the Model 3 platform)
      - pie420 3y ago
        The cybertruck was largely a marketing exercise, and hype generator, same as the Roadster 2. They were "announced" in a time when Tesla needed all the spare cash it could get, so they opened up pre-orders that they had no intention of fulfilling for 4-5 years.
- TheRealSteel 3y ago
  The Tesla Model 3 has been out for six years. Toyota could release this tomorrow and still have alot of catching up to do.
  - sieabahlpark 3y ago
    Not really? Mileage is probably the single largest thing people care about. If they never have to go to a charger and can just do it at home then it's a win. Getting an EV with 200 miles that effectively is 120 is a joke. I couldn't even drive to and from work comfortably with that.
    - theshrike79 3y ago
      My EV has a WLTP of 300km. I can count with my fingers the times I've had to stop to charge it during my regular life. Half of those were just this month because I'm on my summer holiday. All other times the car is sitting and charging while I'm doing non-driving things anyway.
    - mowse_winded 3y ago
      Range is find, if charging time was equivalent to filling up a gas tank and if EV chargers were as common as gas stations.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      > Not really? Mileage is probably the single largest thing people care about. And yet in lots of places we are 30% of total market and its growing. Mileage isn't actually that important because most people don't actually need it very much. Yes, if Tesla had some uber mileage car that would be nice, but that's not actually where the main market competition and limits are.
    - xp84 3y ago
      What’s funny is, you’re both wrong and very right at the same time. I’m sorry to tell you, only crazy outliers commute 100+ miles roundtrip to work (feel free to prove me wrong with real data) so current gen EVs are just fine in range for mainstream[1]. Just as some people NEED a snowplow attachment on their car because they live on a 5 mile driveway in the mountains, or NEED a v12 engine to pull a 20 ton RV, you will always have special needs with that commute. But!! As far as Americans tending to absolutely obsess about range you’re right. Even dozens of non-outliers I’ve heard worrying themselves sick about “what if they do that road-trip they’ve been meaning to do.” And in a country where suburbanites buy $90,000 pickups and never even get the bed dirty with any kind of cargo, people will be buying vehicles with odd priorities in mind like the once-yearly road-trip. [1] they’re not fine in infrastructure though since owning one without at least some home garage charger is certainly worse, and tens of millions of Americans live in apartments with garages and carports not even remotely equipped for even a handful of residents to electrify, and others just have to find a spot on the street. This is the thing really capping adoption today.
JKCalhoun 3y ago
> Toyota already said it was around the corner... One of those "corners" that are more like a telephone pole that we keep going around.

by float4 3y ago

simbolit 3y ago

HN really needs an audio player with a certain Run DMC song on loop.

jansan 3y ago
I did not know there is a song from Run DMC called "Two more weeks".

amadeuspagel 3y ago

> In another five years, and if a report in a Japanese newspaper is to be believed, Toyota will have the key technology for wide-spread adoption of battery-electric vehicles: Solid-state batteries with twice the range of today’s EVs, while charging only in minutes. Well, it's six years now, but that doesn't seem that much of a delay?

simondotau 3y ago
Toyota are still saying it's five years away. So that's a minimum of eleven years.
- labster 3y ago
  But why get a battery car when fusion cars are just 20 years away?
  - tiffanyg 3y ago
    Hmm, I thought 2015 for fusion? https://youtu.be/xvacBzZtYag?t=1m3s https://youtu.be/xvacBzZtYag?t=1m3s There's just too much Bannon-esque "flooding the zone" these days... And now, we wait for the entirely justified downvotes (though, this thread being so AG-ED* at this point, more likely I'm just talking to myself. Again...) * https://youtu.be/V4gJfATGr9k?t=42s https://youtu.be/V4gJfATGr9k?t=42s
Dalewyn 3y ago
About every 3 years[1], Toyota comes around to say they have a new battery tech coming out in about 3 years. I wish this was a stupid meme, but apparently this is more reality than meme. [1]: https://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=22960448&cid=63660976 https://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=22960448&cid=6...
throw0101a 3y ago
> Well, it's six years now, but that doesn't seem that much of a delay? If Tesla can work that way, why can't Toyota?
- SyzygistSix 3y ago
  Tesla also released the Model Y 4 years ago and now it may outsell the Corolla this year. What do the waitlist and sales for the RAV4 or Prius Primes look like?
  - justsid 3y ago
    I’m in the market for a RAV4 plugin hybrid and the wait time here is at least a year if not two. I’d love a Toyota EV though, I have no interest in a Tesla so if Toyota truly entered the market I’d be all over it.
  - jdeibele 3y ago
    5 to 24 months according to this site: https://rav4resource.com/rav4-prime-availability/#:~:text=How%20long%20is%20the%20waiting,dealerships%20that%20I%20spoke%20to https://rav4resource.com/rav4-prime-availability/#:~:text=Ho... I was looking at plug-in hybrids and ran across a reference to people having to wait 2 years for a RAV4 Prime.
  - bdcravens 3y ago
    They announced the Cybertruck that year and they still haven't delivered one, and ditto for the new Roadster 2 years prior. Tesla has demonstrated that long development cycles aren't bad, especially when creating a new tech (the Model Y is built on the Model 3 platform)
    - pie420 3y ago
      The cybertruck was largely a marketing exercise, and hype generator, same as the Roadster 2. They were "announced" in a time when Tesla needed all the spare cash it could get, so they opened up pre-orders that they had no intention of fulfilling for 4-5 years.
TheRealSteel 3y ago
The Tesla Model 3 has been out for six years. Toyota could release this tomorrow and still have alot of catching up to do.
- sieabahlpark 3y ago
  Not really? Mileage is probably the single largest thing people care about. If they never have to go to a charger and can just do it at home then it's a win. Getting an EV with 200 miles that effectively is 120 is a joke. I couldn't even drive to and from work comfortably with that.
  - theshrike79 3y ago
    My EV has a WLTP of 300km. I can count with my fingers the times I've had to stop to charge it during my regular life. Half of those were just this month because I'm on my summer holiday. All other times the car is sitting and charging while I'm doing non-driving things anyway.
  - mowse_winded 3y ago
    Range is find, if charging time was equivalent to filling up a gas tank and if EV chargers were as common as gas stations.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    > Not really? Mileage is probably the single largest thing people care about. And yet in lots of places we are 30% of total market and its growing. Mileage isn't actually that important because most people don't actually need it very much. Yes, if Tesla had some uber mileage car that would be nice, but that's not actually where the main market competition and limits are.
  - xp84 3y ago
    What’s funny is, you’re both wrong and very right at the same time. I’m sorry to tell you, only crazy outliers commute 100+ miles roundtrip to work (feel free to prove me wrong with real data) so current gen EVs are just fine in range for mainstream[1]. Just as some people NEED a snowplow attachment on their car because they live on a 5 mile driveway in the mountains, or NEED a v12 engine to pull a 20 ton RV, you will always have special needs with that commute. But!! As far as Americans tending to absolutely obsess about range you’re right. Even dozens of non-outliers I’ve heard worrying themselves sick about “what if they do that road-trip they’ve been meaning to do.” And in a country where suburbanites buy $90,000 pickups and never even get the bed dirty with any kind of cargo, people will be buying vehicles with odd priorities in mind like the once-yearly road-trip. [1] they’re not fine in infrastructure though since owning one without at least some home garage charger is certainly worse, and tens of millions of Americans live in apartments with garages and carports not even remotely equipped for even a handful of residents to electrify, and others just have to find a spot on the street. This is the thing really capping adoption today.

JKCalhoun 3y ago

> Toyota already said it was around the corner... One of those "corners" that are more like a telephone pole that we keep going around.