6 ms·

Germany was uber green for like 50 years, yet it failed to deliver technological breakthrough. All green bets like diesel, biomass, natural gas, wind and solar,

Germany was uber green for like 50 years, yet it failed to deliver technological breakthrough. All green bets like diesel, biomass, natural gas, wind and solar, failed to deliver. And current leader in solar and batteries is China. Germany is now burning huge amount of coal, and importing it across globe from South America. And yet it struggles to heat it's houses. Current German economy is not sustainable without cheap energy.

thedrbrian 3y ago
Turns out the real force behind German engineering was cheap gas after all
orangepurple 3y ago
Now that it is beyond doubt, do not forget how German media and journalists have been misrepresenting and lying about their green energy successes for decades.
chewz 3y ago
Both German export to China and German automotive industry faced disruptions. China's economy slowed down and China anyway can do without German technology at this point. And German automotive industry cannot compete with EV's yet. BYD is replacing Volkswagen. End of cheap gas is just a cherry on top (de-industralizing German Chemical sector which moves outside Europe). But Germany is capable country in crisis. They will overcame... > During the last 26 years the exports of Germany to China have increased at an annualized rate of 11.8%, from $6.58B in 1995 to $121B in 2021. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/deu https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/d...
- Thoeu388 3y ago
  EVs are not disruption, those are pushed by regulations and subsidies. Germans basically decided to dismantle their car manufacturing industry.
  - chewz 3y ago
    > pushed by regulations and subsidies a sort of disruption it is... ;-)
pjmlp 3y ago
How can we deliver when there are laws where anyone can block wind energy only because they don't like how it disturbs the beauty of the landscape?!? Back home in Portugal there is no discussion, wind parks are built and that is it.
- warning26 3y ago
  Yup -- people don't realize that if you want to get large-scale projects done, you have to step on a few people's toes.
  - krona 3y ago
    And kill scores of birds of prey and wildfowl?
    - pjmlp 3y ago
      All the countries that have won wind parks over Germany still have their nature just fine. Even better, their nature appreciates the amount of green energy being generated, that Germany still is catching up to.
    - xboxnolifes 3y ago
      Same thing happens even if you build a house. Every square foot of land human take, removes a square foot of land for animals, bugs, plants, fungi. It may be less impactful to the human psyche when it's indirect damage, but it's still damage.
      - krona 3y ago
        Bald eagles, buzzards, griffon, sea eagles, red kites, ospreys, harriers, merlins, eagle owls, kestrels, Egyptian vultures and so on do not fly in to houses on a daily basis. What a ludicrous comparison.
        xboxnolifes 3y ago
jacooper 3y ago
Because of stupid decisions like shutting down nuclear plants. The greens are going to lose big time in the next election. But nonetheless AFAIK Germany is still one of the largest countries pushing for renewable energy.
- Thoeu388 3y ago
  It was not stupid decision. Those plants were at end of their life, extending their life would be very expensive. There were no major investment in this industry for past 20 years. French nuclear plants have the same problem, and will be retiring soon.
  - jacooper 3y ago
    They almost cost nothing to start again https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1681951312492253185 https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1681951312492253185
    - lispm 3y ago
      > Krümmel, big enough to power a million people, still has an operating license despite closing 2011: saved by antinuclear politics, ironically I don't think this reactor has a license. Currently it is planned to dismantle it , soon. The reactor was especially ill fated, since it was plagued with a series of serious problems. To get it running again, would be expensive. Shows that the guy posting on Twitter has no idea about the actual reactor.
fsh 3y ago
None of this is true. Germany has had a conservative government from 1982 to 1999, and from 2005 to 2021. The Green party has been in the government as a junior partner only once from 1999 to 2005. The conservative governments mainly bet on nuclear (until Fukushima) and on cheap russian gas, while neglecting renewables. Coal consumption has dropped significantly in the last decades with a small resurgence last year due to the russian gas embargo. Nonetheless, the gas supply for heating never ran low since the russian invasion.
- bozhark 3y ago
  Is Germany on a fault line?
  - SpookyChoice 3y ago
    Yes https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Erdbebenzonen.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Erdbebenzonen.png
    - hollerith 3y ago
      All of Germany is less shaky than zone 4, according to the map you link to. In comparison, half the population of California lives in zone 4 if I recall correctly.
- Thoeu388 3y ago
  Green party is irrelevant in this. Germany had huge scare from Chernobyl. On 2006 there was no single student graduating from nuclear energy, in entire country! How did they bet on nuclear energy?
Ygg2 3y ago
It Is Difficult to Get a Country to Change Something When Their Profits Depend on not Charging It. It's not just solar and batteries China has a lead in. ICE cars requires many precise manufacturing that Germany has lots of experience with. Electric cars are way more simpler and China has a leg up here.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  They are simpler but that doesn’t mean they are more reliable yet. At least in the US electric cars score poor reliability pretty consistently, because there’s a lack of maturity and quality.
  - Ygg2 3y ago
    I'm not taking about reliability. I'm talking about complexity. ICE have a method of converting gasoline explosions to rotational energy which powers the drive and the battery. Electric car have a method of converting electrical potential to rotational energy. Germany is very specialized in making precise part for ICE that just don't exist in Electrical cars. Could they be reoriented for something more? Maybe but not in near term.
Noughmad 3y ago
> All green bets like diesel, biomass, natural gas That's a huge clue right there. Germany bet on the most conservative solutions (keeping their diesel cars and house heating systems) and guess what, they don't work. Burning food for energy was never going to be good idea, and biodiesel was never going be clean enough for cars, but they went for it anyway because they didn't dare touch the auto companies.
V__ 3y ago
It was (sadly) never uber green. It was always mostly coal based. These green bets you are talking about, just like e-fuels today, were mostly greenwashing gimmicks pushed by the industry.
locallost 3y ago
Parts of HN continue to live in an alternative reality. I fail to grasp how this obviously factually wrong comment can even exist, let alone be a top comment. * Germany's coal use is now at a historic minimum, comparable to the 2020 COVID year outlier * Germany does not use coal for heating * Germany does not struggle to heat its homes. Even if it did, it was around 16 degrees Celsius around new year's, so people did not need to heat much in the warm winter * Solar, wind and renewables in general are one of the most exciting and fastest developing industries in the world Could people check basic easy to find facts before posting?
- bozhark 3y ago
  But Germany hardly has any renewable options. Why’d they screw up Nuclear so badly? Their “green” approach had a lot of problems
- Thoeu388 3y ago
  Last year they passed law to reduce heating temperatures. Using radiators too much could be fined. > Germany's coal use is now at a historic minimum, With coal powerplants in hot standby for wind? And imports from other countries that use coal heavily? > Solar, wind ... exciting and fastest developing That is the point! It should not be exiting and developing. By now it should be booring and reliable.
  - lispm 3y ago
    > Using radiators too much could be fined. Source?
  - locallost 3y ago
    The law was not changed to reduce heating temperatures since you can regulate temperature yourself. The law defines a minimal temperature that needs to be reached, otherwise you are entitled to have the heating fixed or get your rent reduced. This minimum was reduced. Ironically this helped my neighbor finally get her heating fixed since she realized she can complain about this to her landlord and they fixed it fast once she did that. Again, coal use is at a historic minimum and this is easy to find. Here is the chart for electricity production until 2022 [1] and here is the data for the first half of this year [2]: > The electricity production from lignite was down 21 percent, hard coal was down 23 percent, natural gas was down 4 percent, and nuclear declined by 57 percent, compared to 2022 values. As far as I know heating with coal is negligible. I don't get your point about renewables - their expansion has been on a basically exponential curve, but the starting point was practically zero. The world is installing massive amounts and will continue to do so - Germany played a large role in that. [1] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig2-gross-power-production-germany-1990-2022.png?itok=Ux7oiZ60 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g... [2] https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/2023/german-net-power-generation-in-first-half-of-2023-renewable-energy-share-of-57-percent.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/...

thedrbrian 3y ago

Turns out the real force behind German engineering was cheap gas after all

orangepurple 3y ago

Now that it is beyond doubt, do not forget how German media and journalists have been misrepresenting and lying about their green energy successes for decades.

chewz 3y ago

Both German export to China and German automotive industry faced disruptions. China's economy slowed down and China anyway can do without German technology at this point. And German automotive industry cannot compete with EV's yet. BYD is replacing Volkswagen. End of cheap gas is just a cherry on top (de-industralizing German Chemical sector which moves outside Europe). But Germany is capable country in crisis. They will overcame... > During the last 26 years the exports of Germany to China have increased at an annualized rate of 11.8%, from $6.58B in 1995 to $121B in 2021. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/deu https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/d...

Thoeu388 3y ago
EVs are not disruption, those are pushed by regulations and subsidies. Germans basically decided to dismantle their car manufacturing industry.
- chewz 3y ago
  > pushed by regulations and subsidies a sort of disruption it is... ;-)

pjmlp 3y ago

How can we deliver when there are laws where anyone can block wind energy only because they don't like how it disturbs the beauty of the landscape?!? Back home in Portugal there is no discussion, wind parks are built and that is it.

warning26 3y ago
Yup -- people don't realize that if you want to get large-scale projects done, you have to step on a few people's toes.
- krona 3y ago
  And kill scores of birds of prey and wildfowl?
  - pjmlp 3y ago
    All the countries that have won wind parks over Germany still have their nature just fine. Even better, their nature appreciates the amount of green energy being generated, that Germany still is catching up to.
  - xboxnolifes 3y ago
    Same thing happens even if you build a house. Every square foot of land human take, removes a square foot of land for animals, bugs, plants, fungi. It may be less impactful to the human psyche when it's indirect damage, but it's still damage.
    - krona 3y ago
      Bald eagles, buzzards, griffon, sea eagles, red kites, ospreys, harriers, merlins, eagle owls, kestrels, Egyptian vultures and so on do not fly in to houses on a daily basis. What a ludicrous comparison.
      - xboxnolifes 3y ago

jacooper 3y ago

Because of stupid decisions like shutting down nuclear plants. The greens are going to lose big time in the next election. But nonetheless AFAIK Germany is still one of the largest countries pushing for renewable energy.

Thoeu388 3y ago
It was not stupid decision. Those plants were at end of their life, extending their life would be very expensive. There were no major investment in this industry for past 20 years. French nuclear plants have the same problem, and will be retiring soon.
- jacooper 3y ago
  They almost cost nothing to start again https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1681951312492253185 https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1681951312492253185
  - lispm 3y ago
    > Krümmel, big enough to power a million people, still has an operating license despite closing 2011: saved by antinuclear politics, ironically I don't think this reactor has a license. Currently it is planned to dismantle it , soon. The reactor was especially ill fated, since it was plagued with a series of serious problems. To get it running again, would be expensive. Shows that the guy posting on Twitter has no idea about the actual reactor.

fsh 3y ago

None of this is true. Germany has had a conservative government from 1982 to 1999, and from 2005 to 2021. The Green party has been in the government as a junior partner only once from 1999 to 2005. The conservative governments mainly bet on nuclear (until Fukushima) and on cheap russian gas, while neglecting renewables. Coal consumption has dropped significantly in the last decades with a small resurgence last year due to the russian gas embargo. Nonetheless, the gas supply for heating never ran low since the russian invasion.

bozhark 3y ago
Is Germany on a fault line?
- SpookyChoice 3y ago
  Yes https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Erdbebenzonen.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Erdbebenzonen.png
  - hollerith 3y ago
    All of Germany is less shaky than zone 4, according to the map you link to. In comparison, half the population of California lives in zone 4 if I recall correctly.
Thoeu388 3y ago
Green party is irrelevant in this. Germany had huge scare from Chernobyl. On 2006 there was no single student graduating from nuclear energy, in entire country! How did they bet on nuclear energy?

Ygg2 3y ago

It Is Difficult to Get a Country to Change Something When Their Profits Depend on not Charging It. It's not just solar and batteries China has a lead in. ICE cars requires many precise manufacturing that Germany has lots of experience with. Electric cars are way more simpler and China has a leg up here.

bobthepanda 3y ago
They are simpler but that doesn’t mean they are more reliable yet. At least in the US electric cars score poor reliability pretty consistently, because there’s a lack of maturity and quality.
- Ygg2 3y ago
  I'm not taking about reliability. I'm talking about complexity. ICE have a method of converting gasoline explosions to rotational energy which powers the drive and the battery. Electric car have a method of converting electrical potential to rotational energy. Germany is very specialized in making precise part for ICE that just don't exist in Electrical cars. Could they be reoriented for something more? Maybe but not in near term.

Noughmad 3y ago

> All green bets like diesel, biomass, natural gas That's a huge clue right there. Germany bet on the most conservative solutions (keeping their diesel cars and house heating systems) and guess what, they don't work. Burning food for energy was never going to be good idea, and biodiesel was never going be clean enough for cars, but they went for it anyway because they didn't dare touch the auto companies.

V__ 3y ago

It was (sadly) never uber green. It was always mostly coal based. These green bets you are talking about, just like e-fuels today, were mostly greenwashing gimmicks pushed by the industry.

locallost 3y ago

Parts of HN continue to live in an alternative reality. I fail to grasp how this obviously factually wrong comment can even exist, let alone be a top comment. * Germany's coal use is now at a historic minimum, comparable to the 2020 COVID year outlier * Germany does not use coal for heating * Germany does not struggle to heat its homes. Even if it did, it was around 16 degrees Celsius around new year's, so people did not need to heat much in the warm winter * Solar, wind and renewables in general are one of the most exciting and fastest developing industries in the world Could people check basic easy to find facts before posting?

bozhark 3y ago
But Germany hardly has any renewable options. Why’d they screw up Nuclear so badly? Their “green” approach had a lot of problems
Thoeu388 3y ago
Last year they passed law to reduce heating temperatures. Using radiators too much could be fined. > Germany's coal use is now at a historic minimum, With coal powerplants in hot standby for wind? And imports from other countries that use coal heavily? > Solar, wind ... exciting and fastest developing That is the point! It should not be exiting and developing. By now it should be booring and reliable.
- lispm 3y ago
  > Using radiators too much could be fined. Source?
- locallost 3y ago
  The law was not changed to reduce heating temperatures since you can regulate temperature yourself. The law defines a minimal temperature that needs to be reached, otherwise you are entitled to have the heating fixed or get your rent reduced. This minimum was reduced. Ironically this helped my neighbor finally get her heating fixed since she realized she can complain about this to her landlord and they fixed it fast once she did that. Again, coal use is at a historic minimum and this is easy to find. Here is the chart for electricity production until 2022 [1] and here is the data for the first half of this year [2]: > The electricity production from lignite was down 21 percent, hard coal was down 23 percent, natural gas was down 4 percent, and nuclear declined by 57 percent, compared to 2022 values. As far as I know heating with coal is negligible. I don't get your point about renewables - their expansion has been on a basically exponential curve, but the starting point was practically zero. The world is installing massive amounts and will continue to do so - Germany played a large role in that. [1] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/paragraphs/images/fig2-gross-power-production-germany-1990-2022.png?itok=Ux7oiZ60 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g... [2] https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/2023/german-net-power-generation-in-first-half-of-2023-renewable-energy-share-of-57-percent.html https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/...