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We might see a pull back to December 2019 prices but there's no way absolute house prices will crash to 2014 or 2012 prices. Weak markets might continue to see
by hadlock 3y ago
We might see a pull back to December 2019 prices but there's no way absolute house prices will crash to 2014 or 2012 prices. Weak markets might continue to see a decline in prices but in competitive markets (read: where the jobs/growth are/is) demand far outstrips supply to the tune of about 7 million homes per the Fed.
- solumunus 3y agoI wouldn’t ever say “no way” when it comes to markets. A black swan could always be right around the corner.
- pessimizer 3y agoBut aren't those the places being most damaged by the end of free money?
- hadlock 3y agoIt's offset by a massive housing shortage nation wide. 7 million new homes is like 175 new, large apartment complexes in every city over population 100,000.
- appplication 3y agoI don’t think so. Most current homeowners have absolutely no incentive to sell, and the market has to work both ways. The high interest rates and increase in housing prices mean if you bought a home within the last 15 years there’s a 0% chance a homeowner could buy the same home they live in today for anywhere similar in price. It’s not like stocks where you can sell to reap your gains and just hold onto the cash or move it to a different asset. You have to live somewhere. For most people, selling their home now means moving into a worse quality rental and paying more, or paying 2-3x what you were paying on your 2013 mortgage payment for the same quality home. Prices aren’t going to come down just because interest rates and prices scare away buyers. The sellers don’t care that there are no buyers because they’re also not selling. It’s a weird unhealthy place for the economy where everyone except the banks seem to be losing.
- almost_usual 3y agoThere is so much more money in the economy since COVID. A pullback to 2019 prices seems very unlikely.