Both explanations are probably correctly. This is a bullwhip effect, but that does cause a real build up in inventories and contraction in demand during the do

Both explanations are probably correctly. This is a bullwhip effect, but that does cause a real build up in inventories and contraction in demand during the down part of the cycle. And this will be concurrent with the higher rate environment and contraction in homebuilding and other sectors caused by Fed policy. And so the TSMC warning is likely is forecasting a brewing recession, precipitated in part due to bullwhip effects.