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I wouldn't have ever detected this supposed recession if I hadn't been constantly warned of it by the media

Turskarama 3y ago
There's a two speed economy. If you're in the low speed part earning less than the median then you're already in recession. If you're in the high speed part you will be in recession when you stop being able to extract money from the low speed economy.
- bagacrap 3y ago
  As seductive as that story is, the data doesn't bear it out. Hourly workers have made huge gains in the last three years at the expense of salaried workers, and flyover states are turning the tables on coastal states. Look at: real hourly wages and unemployment figures.
  - Turskarama 3y ago
    I have some fairly big gripes with the way inflation adjustion is calculated. Mainly: I don't think it properly covers the difference between discretionary vs non discretionary spending across different income levels. Ultimately, if you're poor, the only weightings that _actually_ affect you are (in order) food, housing, transportation, and energy. Everything else including healthcare ultimately doesn't become part of the equation, because you can't afford it. It doesn't matter if cars are cheaper if you can't afford to buy one anyway, it doesn't matter if drugs are cheaper if you can't afford your prescription anyway, and it doesn't matter if restaurants are cheaper if you can't afford to eat out anyway. Pretending like the price of consumer electronics (which can be a big one off spend, but amortised over the several years they last are fairly small) or plane trips matters at all to the spending power of poor people is laughable.
    - cudgy 3y ago
      I’d argue housing should be first in that list, since it represents almost 50-70% of a poor persons gross income. Food is critical of course, but beans and rice with occasional road kill are cheap and can sustain someone nutritionally.

There's a two speed economy. If you're in the low speed part earning less than the median then you're already in recession. If you're in the high speed part you will be in recession when you stop being able to extract money from the low speed economy.

bagacrap 3y ago
As seductive as that story is, the data doesn't bear it out. Hourly workers have made huge gains in the last three years at the expense of salaried workers, and flyover states are turning the tables on coastal states. Look at: real hourly wages and unemployment figures.
- Turskarama 3y ago
  I have some fairly big gripes with the way inflation adjustion is calculated. Mainly: I don't think it properly covers the difference between discretionary vs non discretionary spending across different income levels. Ultimately, if you're poor, the only weightings that _actually_ affect you are (in order) food, housing, transportation, and energy. Everything else including healthcare ultimately doesn't become part of the equation, because you can't afford it. It doesn't matter if cars are cheaper if you can't afford to buy one anyway, it doesn't matter if drugs are cheaper if you can't afford your prescription anyway, and it doesn't matter if restaurants are cheaper if you can't afford to eat out anyway. Pretending like the price of consumer electronics (which can be a big one off spend, but amortised over the several years they last are fairly small) or plane trips matters at all to the spending power of poor people is laughable.
  - cudgy 3y ago
    I’d argue housing should be first in that list, since it represents almost 50-70% of a poor persons gross income. Food is critical of course, but beans and rice with occasional road kill are cheap and can sustain someone nutritionally.