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> Downvotes are welcome I won't downvote you, but if I did it wouldn't have anything to do with ideology but the fact that you seem to be presenting an ideolog

> Downvotes are welcome I won't downvote you, but if I did it wouldn't have anything to do with ideology but the fact that you seem to be presenting an ideological viewpoint yourself without accurate data to back it up. > whereas cheapest battery replacement costs are north of 25,000 USD A Bolt battery pack, as I recall, is 16K retail. And that's a previous generation battery that is essentially out of production now, or very close. Given the trajectory in battery prices, that number is just going lower and lower every year. Comparing it to an engine rebuild is a bit disingenuous, too. Buy a brand new engine and let's talk about what it costs. And then don't forget the ongoing fuel cost difference. In the future, there will be rebuilt battery packs for older EVs too. > Aren't at this point electric cars mainly "rich boy's toy" unless something disruptive in energy storage comes along? The TCO on a Bolt is way, way, way below a comparable ICE car right now. And I'm willing to bet the TCO on a RWD Model 3 is also better than competing ICE designs as well. And I have to tell you, I live in an area with mixed incomes and there are lots of regular people in modest neighborhoods with Niro EVs, Bolts, and no small number of Model 3s. The economics are favorable for the type of people who keep a car for at least 5 years.

TheCaptain4815 3y ago
To be fair, that's because of a $7,500 rebate from taxpayers. Remove that and the economics completely change.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  It extends it, sure, and if you only keep cars a few years it will be tough to get the economics to be favorable. As someone who buys a new fun car every 18 months, I recognize it's not a good economic choice. But my nearest neighbors buy a new Camry every 10 years, over and over, and the economics would be really great for them. Here is how the economics are working for me, using my most recent EV as an example: I've spent 197.24 on electricity since buying it, and driven 5428 miles. 127.82 of that was home charging, and 69.42 was spent supercharging. $0.036/mile. Local gasoline is $4.69/gal. A typical Camry hybrid gets 46 mpg overall and costs $0.101/mile. An average modern car is expected to go approximately 200K miles before being recycled. Over that time, assuming fuel prices do not change (they will, of course, but we don't know how that will play out), the Camry will cost an additional $12940 in fueling costs. The battery is warrantied for 8 years or 120K miles, and if it makes it that far without needing replacement then the odds are good it'll make it to the EOL of the car. Even if I had to replace it, by that point it'll cost less than how much I've saved on gasoline. Given the sheer number of Model 3s on the road right now, used battery packs 5-10 years down the road are going to be even more common (it's already easy enough to get used Model 3 packs on eBay for 5-7 grand). I like the economic outlook for EVs, and it just gets better every year.
ComputerGuru 3y ago
> I live in an area with mixed incomes and there are lots of regular people in modest neighborhoods with Niro EVs, Bolts, and no small number of Model 3s. The economics are favorable for the type of people who keep a car for at least 5 years. Without commenting on anything else, I can tell you that what people are buying doesn't have a thing to do with what the those same people should actually buy to be smart with their money. There would be a lot less financial problems in the world if they were one and the same. (I'll go as far as saying that I don't believe purchasing a new-from-the-dealer car ever makes financial sense, no matter how big your wallet is. I'm not sure which forced depreciation scheme is worse: the drop in value of a diamond ring when you walk out the store or the drop in value of a new car as soon as you drive it off the lot.)
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  That's probably true. There are a disproportionate number of people in very middle-of-the-road neighborhoods with solar panels on the roof, and the ROI on solar in Oregon isn't really awesome. So there's some idealism going on, for sure. But I've run the numbers enough times, and for the people who buy a car and drive it into the ground the EV math is pretty great. At least around here, because 9pm-5am every day and all-day weekends our per-kWh electricity cost is under 8 cents (all-in, including transmission costs, etc).
  - ComputerGuru 3y ago
    That's an insane electric cost if it's comprehensive of everything including delivery fees plus taxes and surcharges (i.e. your actual monthly payment divided by total kWh consumed). I'm in Illinois and we are considered to have fairly cheap electricity (and the highest (?) rate of nuclear energy in the States) but even with time-of-use billing heavily biased towards late night and the wee hours of the morning, I still paid net just over 10¢/kWh this past month. (State law mandates the availability of a real-time pricing option by all electric providers in Illinois.) The reason I asked if it was calculable with the simple formula I listed above is that—according to ComEd—my price was 6.809¢/kWh, but that's not taking into account the ~34% of the total bill that's taxes and surcharges.

TheCaptain4815 3y ago

To be fair, that's because of a $7,500 rebate from taxpayers. Remove that and the economics completely change.

rootusrootus 3y ago
It extends it, sure, and if you only keep cars a few years it will be tough to get the economics to be favorable. As someone who buys a new fun car every 18 months, I recognize it's not a good economic choice. But my nearest neighbors buy a new Camry every 10 years, over and over, and the economics would be really great for them. Here is how the economics are working for me, using my most recent EV as an example: I've spent 197.24 on electricity since buying it, and driven 5428 miles. 127.82 of that was home charging, and 69.42 was spent supercharging. $0.036/mile. Local gasoline is $4.69/gal. A typical Camry hybrid gets 46 mpg overall and costs $0.101/mile. An average modern car is expected to go approximately 200K miles before being recycled. Over that time, assuming fuel prices do not change (they will, of course, but we don't know how that will play out), the Camry will cost an additional $12940 in fueling costs. The battery is warrantied for 8 years or 120K miles, and if it makes it that far without needing replacement then the odds are good it'll make it to the EOL of the car. Even if I had to replace it, by that point it'll cost less than how much I've saved on gasoline. Given the sheer number of Model 3s on the road right now, used battery packs 5-10 years down the road are going to be even more common (it's already easy enough to get used Model 3 packs on eBay for 5-7 grand). I like the economic outlook for EVs, and it just gets better every year.

ComputerGuru 3y ago

> I live in an area with mixed incomes and there are lots of regular people in modest neighborhoods with Niro EVs, Bolts, and no small number of Model 3s. The economics are favorable for the type of people who keep a car for at least 5 years. Without commenting on anything else, I can tell you that what people are buying doesn't have a thing to do with what the those same people should actually buy to be smart with their money. There would be a lot less financial problems in the world if they were one and the same. (I'll go as far as saying that I don't believe purchasing a new-from-the-dealer car ever makes financial sense, no matter how big your wallet is. I'm not sure which forced depreciation scheme is worse: the drop in value of a diamond ring when you walk out the store or the drop in value of a new car as soon as you drive it off the lot.)

rootusrootus 3y ago
That's probably true. There are a disproportionate number of people in very middle-of-the-road neighborhoods with solar panels on the roof, and the ROI on solar in Oregon isn't really awesome. So there's some idealism going on, for sure. But I've run the numbers enough times, and for the people who buy a car and drive it into the ground the EV math is pretty great. At least around here, because 9pm-5am every day and all-day weekends our per-kWh electricity cost is under 8 cents (all-in, including transmission costs, etc).
- ComputerGuru 3y ago
  That's an insane electric cost if it's comprehensive of everything including delivery fees plus taxes and surcharges (i.e. your actual monthly payment divided by total kWh consumed). I'm in Illinois and we are considered to have fairly cheap electricity (and the highest (?) rate of nuclear energy in the States) but even with time-of-use billing heavily biased towards late night and the wee hours of the morning, I still paid net just over 10¢/kWh this past month. (State law mandates the availability of a real-time pricing option by all electric providers in Illinois.) The reason I asked if it was calculable with the simple formula I listed above is that—according to ComEd—my price was 6.809¢/kWh, but that's not taking into account the ~34% of the total bill that's taxes and surcharges.