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Personally I don't think AI is very likely to destroy humanity in the next couple of decades. I also don't think that the Ukraine war is very likely to end in a

by kalkin 3y ago

Personally I don't think AI is very likely to destroy humanity in the next couple of decades. I also don't think that the Ukraine war is very likely to end in a global thermonuclear exchange. But I don't think worrying about nuclear war is insanity. What strikes me as insane in the Ukraine case, or at the very least dangerously irrational, is calling for a no-fly zone without thinking about the consequences. And I feel similarly about attitudes towards AI...

mrguyorama 3y ago
At the same time, I think it's pretty clear that a no fly zone could have been done with few American casualties, and Putin would still have no ability to respond because they physically cannot. Putin, and more importantly all the rich assholes under him who like being rich assholes, don't like the idea of being rich assholes in a post nuclear exchange Russia, will likely not hit the button. Add to that the likelihood that most of the Nukes would not go off, or blow up on the launch pad even (Most of Russia's nukes are liquid fueled ICBMs, which are terrible in terms of staying reliable for cheap, and Russia spends less on it's entire military than the US spends on just it's solid fueled missiles). Russia has had at least one nuclear test fail since the war started. We have been holding back equipment because "what if we need it" (to fight who?), or "but they'll retaliate!" (with the one tank they could afford to spare for the parade?) or "but it costs so much money" (only when you calculate it with the price we paid in 1980 instead of the negative value these old machines that need to be sold or decommissioned currently have) or "We can't send cluster munitions because the UXO risk!" while every day Russia is still in Ukrainian territory is actual Russians purposely shooting at Ukrainians and RUSSIANS HAVE LITERALLY USED CLUSTER MUNITIONS ON CIVILIAN POPULATIONS! The actual insanity is sending Ukraine 100 Bradleys instead of 500 and then bitching when their offensive is mediocre.
- kalkin 3y ago
  I don't want to argue about Ukraine in this thread but I guess I do respect the consistency of anyone who says both "eh risking nuclear war is no biggie if the first mechanism for it that occurs to me seems unlikely" and "eh risking losing control of the planet to AI shoggoths is no biggie if..."

by kalkin 3y ago

mrguyorama 3y ago

At the same time, I think it's pretty clear that a no fly zone could have been done with few American casualties, and Putin would still have no ability to respond because they physically cannot. Putin, and more importantly all the rich assholes under him who like being rich assholes, don't like the idea of being rich assholes in a post nuclear exchange Russia, will likely not hit the button. Add to that the likelihood that most of the Nukes would not go off, or blow up on the launch pad even (Most of Russia's nukes are liquid fueled ICBMs, which are terrible in terms of staying reliable for cheap, and Russia spends less on it's entire military than the US spends on just it's solid fueled missiles). Russia has had at least one nuclear test fail since the war started. We have been holding back equipment because "what if we need it" (to fight who?), or "but they'll retaliate!" (with the one tank they could afford to spare for the parade?) or "but it costs so much money" (only when you calculate it with the price we paid in 1980 instead of the negative value these old machines that need to be sold or decommissioned currently have) or "We can't send cluster munitions because the UXO risk!" while every day Russia is still in Ukrainian territory is actual Russians purposely shooting at Ukrainians and RUSSIANS HAVE LITERALLY USED CLUSTER MUNITIONS ON CIVILIAN POPULATIONS! The actual insanity is sending Ukraine 100 Bradleys instead of 500 and then bitching when their offensive is mediocre.

kalkin 3y ago
I don't want to argue about Ukraine in this thread but I guess I do respect the consistency of anyone who says both "eh risking nuclear war is no biggie if the first mechanism for it that occurs to me seems unlikely" and "eh risking losing control of the planet to AI shoggoths is no biggie if..."