Ironically, that anecdote also paints a good reason to sample the data on how long it takes to get there. If you check your own history for how long it takes t

Ironically, that anecdote also paints a good reason to sample the data on how long it takes to get there. If you check your own history for how long it takes to get somewhere, it is probably far more predictable than you'd expect. Of course, this also explains why software estimates are hard. We are all too often estimating things we haven't done before.