3 ms·
There is a common conception that we don't know the future, but we know the past. In our heads, we have models of the past and models of the future. Sure, ther
by stared 3y ago
There is a common conception that we don't know the future, but we know the past.
In our heads, we have models of the past and models of the future. Sure, there is an asymmetry between knowing the past and the future - due to thermodynamics. Still, in both cases, it is good to think of these as probabilistic models, far from any certainty.
- abirch 3y agoThe past also suffers from survivorship bias. Although there's a 1 in 8 chance of flipping 3 consecutive heads, in the future after flipping 3 consecutive heads you forget about the other possibilities. E.g., there was a 1 in 8 chance that Hitler, Stalin, and Mao could have all been born women before they were conceived.
- firebirdn99 3y ago> Although there's a 1 in 8 chance of flipping 3 consecutive heads, in the future after flipping 3 consecutive heads you forget about the other possibilities. In other contexts, also known as the gambler's fallacy if I recall.
- mitchdoogle 3y agoIf you are specifically looking for a result of 3 coin flips, then it's 1 in 8 chance of getting 3 of the same. The gambler's fallacy is seeing 2 coin flips come up heads and thinking there's only a 1 in 8 chance that the last one will come up heads.
- qwnp 3y ago> there is an asymmetry between knowing the past and the future - due to thermodynamics Would you please elaborate on this?
- yakcyll 3y agoI think this may refer to the second law of thermodynamics - entropy cannot decrease over time in an isolated system. One could argue the entire universe is one.
- ChrisSD 3y agoBut our local "system" has a gigantic miasma of incandescent plasma on our doorstep. The Earth itself should not need to worry about entropy for a long while yet...
- high_priest 3y agoWhat @stared means with the entropy quote is that in a world tending from organised to disorganised, it is impossible to KNOW the future, but also very hard to TRULY KNOW the past. As each step into the future causes the remnants of past to decay.
- nobody9999 3y ago>But our local "system" has a gigantic miasma of incandescent plasma on our doorstep. The Earth itself should not need to worry about entropy for a long while yet... I interpret GP's reference to thermodynamics/entropy as generating the "arrow (asymmetry) of time,"[0] Which exists (at least for us matter-based beings) as remembering the "past," but not the "future," and local fluctuations in entropy don't affect that at all. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time
- bamfly 3y agoIt's physics-enthusiast for "time goes one way".
- bluetomcat 3y agoWe have partial impressions of the past. We have seen, felt, thought something at various points in time and then we construct a sequential story of what happened, often employing abstract cause-effect reasoning. Two different observers might come up with different stories. To reach a consensus, they have to exchange their points of view. Once all the observers forget their story or they disappear, the past "fact" disappears from collective memory, unless that story was passed to newer generations by speech, writing, etc.
- speak_plainly 3y agoAnd neither of those models have any reality, they're a product of imagination.
- kelseyfrog 3y agoYep, and the utility of a model doesn't imply its accuracy. To think that it does is our collective greatest blindspot.
- pyinstallwoes 3y agoConsciousness as a solution to Maxwell’s demon? Makes sense to me. Consciousness forms a closure over a deletion mechanism towards less and less paths over time. Eventually inconsistent architecture. It’s exactly what the universe needs.