3 ms·

The distant future. Like five years. Self-aware (or a simulation thereof) AGI with self-directed motivation and the ability to self modify is barely a half step

The distant future. Like five years. Self-aware (or a simulation thereof) AGI with self-directed motivation and the ability to self modify is barely a half step from ASI. And AGI could happen in the coming year. Five if you wanna be pessimistic. Never if you’re extraordinarily pessimistic but that’s looking unlikely. If it’s possible it’s possible now. This isn’t the Yellowstone super volcano that might blow in the next billion years. People who talk like this are idiotic at best. Granted, the other concerns are real too but the accusation that the concern of existential risk is being used to hide the other known problems is dangerous in the extreme.

JimtheCoder 3y ago
"And AGI could happen in the coming year." "People who talk like this are idiotic at best."
- __loam 3y ago
  Someone built what is essentially a fancy markov chain that was trained to look convincing to people and people think that's going to lead to AGI lol.
  - version_five 3y ago
    "Introducing the AI Mirror Test, which very smart people keep failing" https://www.theverge.com/23604075/ai-chatbots-bing-chatgpt-intelligent-sentient-mirror-test https://www.theverge.com/23604075/ai-chatbots-bing-chatgpt-i...
    - seiferteric 3y ago
      99% of what people do day to day is repetitive/unoriginal so it is not too surprising that this is happening, but I wonder if we are really any closer to an AI that can develop a novel and important scientific theory or mathematical result for instance? When can we expect AI to resolve the quantum gravity issue? If it can't do that, but eventually humans do, what does that say about AI I wonder?
      - version_five 3y ago
        We're no closer. Like you say, we're showing that more and more of what we do involves no actual intelligence, but it's in the margins that real intelligence exists. We're no closer to simulating (or even describing) the unique aspects intelligence than we were in the 50s. We just have Eliza with 200 billion parameters.
      - reducesuffering 3y ago
        "Mathematicians at the University of Oxford used the AI to discover a surprising connection between algebraic and geometric invariant knots, establishing a completely new theorem in the field."[0] The goalposts will continue moving until morale impairs. [0] https://news.sky.com/story/mathematicians-hail-breakthrough-in-using-ai-to-suggest-new-theorems-12483934 https://news.sky.com/story/mathematicians-hail-breakthrough-...
  - Vecr 3y ago
    Why can't a (very optimized to the point of not really being a) markov chain be smarter than a person? What are your requirements for outputs, abilities, and internal methods?
atq2119 3y ago
I'm pretty sure you could have expressed your opinion without resorting to insults.

JimtheCoder 3y ago

"And AGI could happen in the coming year." "People who talk like this are idiotic at best."

__loam 3y ago
Someone built what is essentially a fancy markov chain that was trained to look convincing to people and people think that's going to lead to AGI lol.
- version_five 3y ago
  "Introducing the AI Mirror Test, which very smart people keep failing" https://www.theverge.com/23604075/ai-chatbots-bing-chatgpt-intelligent-sentient-mirror-test https://www.theverge.com/23604075/ai-chatbots-bing-chatgpt-i...
  - seiferteric 3y ago
    99% of what people do day to day is repetitive/unoriginal so it is not too surprising that this is happening, but I wonder if we are really any closer to an AI that can develop a novel and important scientific theory or mathematical result for instance? When can we expect AI to resolve the quantum gravity issue? If it can't do that, but eventually humans do, what does that say about AI I wonder?
    - version_five 3y ago
      We're no closer. Like you say, we're showing that more and more of what we do involves no actual intelligence, but it's in the margins that real intelligence exists. We're no closer to simulating (or even describing) the unique aspects intelligence than we were in the 50s. We just have Eliza with 200 billion parameters.
    - reducesuffering 3y ago
      "Mathematicians at the University of Oxford used the AI to discover a surprising connection between algebraic and geometric invariant knots, establishing a completely new theorem in the field."[0] The goalposts will continue moving until morale impairs. [0] https://news.sky.com/story/mathematicians-hail-breakthrough-in-using-ai-to-suggest-new-theorems-12483934 https://news.sky.com/story/mathematicians-hail-breakthrough-...
- Vecr 3y ago
  Why can't a (very optimized to the point of not really being a) markov chain be smarter than a person? What are your requirements for outputs, abilities, and internal methods?

atq2119 3y ago

I'm pretty sure you could have expressed your opinion without resorting to insults.