Exactly. And here is an example of that inability in the much clearer case: "How many years after 1945 ... would it take for the Soviet Union to get the bomb?

Exactly. And here is an example of that inability in the much clearer case: "How many years after 1945 ... would it take for the Soviet Union to get the bomb? Framed this way, it was a much easier question than forecasting the advent of AGI: The Americans were concerned with only one adversary and the development of a single technology which they already knew all the details of. American predictions of Soviet proliferation offer a highly constrained case study for those who would undertake technological forecasting today." https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/how-long-until-armageddon https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/how-long-until-armageddon