3 ms·

Thanks for the detailed response. I don't buy that all science coming from 1/6th of the world (by population) will somehow surpass all the science coming from

• dirtyid 3y ago
  IMO the proper way to frame comparison is science from 1/6 of the globe (mandarin) vs science from 1/5 of globe (english). The entire narrative US/west can draw from the globe greatly overstates how many eligible English speaking candidates are actually available for western bloc to draw from. It’s not the entire pie, but 1/5 of the pie, while some share of that pie are also PRC nationals. Per the linked CIA factbook. Most spoken language English 18.8%, Mandarin 13.8% Most spoken _first_ language Mandarin 12.3% vs English 5.1% The short/medium term competition is 14% of native mandarin speakers vs 5% native english speakers + 13% non native speakers of different fluency. Long / very long term (2050-2100), Mandarin speakers will likely decline to 1/12 of the world, while English speakers will likely increase, maybe 1/4 of the world. But Ultimately only a fraction of talent is properly captured and exploited, so it really depends on state policies, i.e. PRC graduates STEM at 2x the rate of the US or 8x more graduates per year, more than west taking in talent via brain drain. Hence IMO enough to rival English, which is the best PRC can hope for because displacing English with Chinese is too culturally difficult.