3 ms·
Observed excess US deaths: 1.34 million. Expected deaths from an unchecked epidemic: 330 million × 50% infection rate × 4% fatality rate = 6.6 million. 50% in
by munch117 3y ago
Observed excess US deaths: 1.34 million.
Expected deaths from an unchecked epidemic: 330 million × 50% infection rate × 4% fatality rate = 6.6 million.
50% infection rate is the estimated no-lockdown epidemic penetration rate that I remember hearing from an epidemiologist. 4% was the fatality rate in Italy, February 2020, when hospitals were overwhelmed.
Not even close.
- jtc331 3y ago4% in Italy isn't just "when hospitals were overwhelmed", it's with an aging population.
- munch117 3y agoDid you actually look at the population pyramid for Italy, and compared it to the one for the US, before you made that argument? I don't think you did. Besides, even if the true number was 3.8% or 4.3%, that wouldn't change the conclusion.