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> Both SEO and search result ads on Google are dead And then > Google's visibility of all transactions on every e-commerce website on the internet is insane.

> Both SEO and search result ads on Google are dead And then > Google's visibility of all transactions on every e-commerce website on the internet is insane. Ah, so they have all of the information and yet their ad products don't work. They don't know this?

samwillis 3y ago
They appear to work just well enough to keep you hooked while they increasingly eat your margin.
- edmundsauto 3y ago
  My 2 cents - in the past, there were bigger inefficiencies that advertisers could exploit. So they could buy a click for 10 cents, and profit 25 cents from it. Google has gotten better and closed that gap, so now you pay 15 cents (and due to increased competition, you might only profit 20 cents) The opportunities are still there in local minima, places where it's too small for Google to optimize. But the trend is clear.
  - jklinger410 3y ago
    A perfectly optimized ad algorithm reflects the market, and offers little opportunity that isn't present in the business itself. Costs go up because winners have been found. Like monopolies in capitalism.
    - edmundsauto 3y ago
      Naive question, but if a winner had been found in a given niche, wouldn't there not be as much bidding competition and thus costs would go down? Concretely: if I am the only pie baker in the world (I won), who else would bid against me for "place to buy pie"? My unsubstantiated hypothesis is that google has gotten better at cross-promoting - so they could target people who like cake, increasing the market and competition for bids, making prices go up.
      - jklinger410 3y ago
        Incumbents often maintain large budgets to ward off competition. Competition wins enough to keep bidding, etc. If America is not full of monopolies, the bidding environment stays liquid. There is also the threat of using literal brand name targeting, or conquesting, which encourages your competition to run their own ads to keep you out. I believe there are some agreements for larger corporations to continue to promote things even if it is not necessary. People with funny money can treat ad markets like billboards. Another fucked up aspect is that the government often runs ads to promote its own policies. Much like real markets there is sometimes unnatural activity that keeps it moving.
    - geysersam 3y ago
      I've seen this narrative a lot in this thread. But if Googles ad-algorithm was actually good I'd expect to occasionally see useful ads. But Googles ad-algorithm is far from perfect. That's why people use reddit or other community aggregators to find useful products, the search engines just really suck at that task.
      - jklinger410 3y ago
        If you are like many of the commenters on here who is using adblockers and abstains from social networks, this is precisely why you see shitty ads. Also if you aren't buying anything by clicking them, advertisers are ignoring you because you aren't a valuable user to them. You are most likely reaping what you sew. Which shows that the ad networks are actually working.
pixl97 3y ago
It's not good enough that Google makes massive amounts of money for each click, the market demands they make more per each click every day. Gotta chase that growth.
- dmvdoug 3y ago
  Yes. Now the trick is to convince people that satisficing isn’t just laziness or somehow a road to business death.
makeitdouble 3y ago
> their ad products don't work. It works for them. They might need to make it work a tad more for their customers if they had to, but right now they apparently don't.
derefr 3y ago
By "dead" the GP means "at the bottom of a race-to-the-bottom." People are paying $4 (to Google) per customer, to acquire customers with an LTV of $4, making them $0 per customer. That's the natural conclusion to competition under perfect information.
- samwillis 3y ago
  Yes. This is what I'm saying.
drdaeman 3y ago
> They don't know this? Of course they do, but people pay crazy money for this and it plays the important role in Google's market valuation, so it's in Google's best interests to continue chanting the Big Data Big Money mantra. It doesn't help that the myth/meme is strongly backed by the whole cyberpunk genre, as people love the dystopian themes of "big corporations know everything about you, down to your most secret desires you don't even realize yourself". And it probably even work by some small but statistically significant margin, compared to some arbitrarily picked baseline, so they can even back this up if necessary. The king is naked, though.
- nine_k 3y ago
  If online ad campaigns did not bring sales, a lot of people would stop doing them. There are other advertisement media; there is organic-looking product placement, there is overt product placement and "influencers", etc. Still, people buy a lot of AdWords and similar, and occasionally I see a relevant ad I click. BTW ads within Facebook are usually of much better quality (for me as a reader), likely because they can correlate.more sources inside FB.
  - anon25783 3y ago
    You occasionally click on "relevant" ads? I'm really curious why you would do that? Personally, I'll go out of my way to make sure that I don't buy anything referred to me by an ad, on the grounds that advertising is a vile and parasitic industry.
    - jerrre 3y ago
      Not OP but presumably they click a relevant ad because it is relevant...
    - nine_k 3y ago
      I relatively often click on ads for new electronic musical instruments, even though I rarely buy them. These are just interesting things to see, some actually novel. I sometimes click on ads about things related to IT and programming, if they mention something novel and important, just to be aware of the landscape, and what potential competition are pushing. I see ads relatively rarely though, because I run uBlock Origin. So the ads I see are usually placed in context with some care, not just randomly tucked on to an unrelated webpage. Most of the ads are really poor, as I can see if I use an unprotected browser.

samwillis 3y ago

They appear to work just well enough to keep you hooked while they increasingly eat your margin.

edmundsauto 3y ago
My 2 cents - in the past, there were bigger inefficiencies that advertisers could exploit. So they could buy a click for 10 cents, and profit 25 cents from it. Google has gotten better and closed that gap, so now you pay 15 cents (and due to increased competition, you might only profit 20 cents) The opportunities are still there in local minima, places where it's too small for Google to optimize. But the trend is clear.
- jklinger410 3y ago
  A perfectly optimized ad algorithm reflects the market, and offers little opportunity that isn't present in the business itself. Costs go up because winners have been found. Like monopolies in capitalism.
  - edmundsauto 3y ago
    Naive question, but if a winner had been found in a given niche, wouldn't there not be as much bidding competition and thus costs would go down? Concretely: if I am the only pie baker in the world (I won), who else would bid against me for "place to buy pie"? My unsubstantiated hypothesis is that google has gotten better at cross-promoting - so they could target people who like cake, increasing the market and competition for bids, making prices go up.
    - jklinger410 3y ago
      Incumbents often maintain large budgets to ward off competition. Competition wins enough to keep bidding, etc. If America is not full of monopolies, the bidding environment stays liquid. There is also the threat of using literal brand name targeting, or conquesting, which encourages your competition to run their own ads to keep you out. I believe there are some agreements for larger corporations to continue to promote things even if it is not necessary. People with funny money can treat ad markets like billboards. Another fucked up aspect is that the government often runs ads to promote its own policies. Much like real markets there is sometimes unnatural activity that keeps it moving.
  - geysersam 3y ago
    I've seen this narrative a lot in this thread. But if Googles ad-algorithm was actually good I'd expect to occasionally see useful ads. But Googles ad-algorithm is far from perfect. That's why people use reddit or other community aggregators to find useful products, the search engines just really suck at that task.
    - jklinger410 3y ago
      If you are like many of the commenters on here who is using adblockers and abstains from social networks, this is precisely why you see shitty ads. Also if you aren't buying anything by clicking them, advertisers are ignoring you because you aren't a valuable user to them. You are most likely reaping what you sew. Which shows that the ad networks are actually working.

pixl97 3y ago

It's not good enough that Google makes massive amounts of money for each click, the market demands they make more per each click every day. Gotta chase that growth.

dmvdoug 3y ago
Yes. Now the trick is to convince people that satisficing isn’t just laziness or somehow a road to business death.

makeitdouble 3y ago

> their ad products don't work. It works for them. They might need to make it work a tad more for their customers if they had to, but right now they apparently don't.

derefr 3y ago

By "dead" the GP means "at the bottom of a race-to-the-bottom." People are paying $4 (to Google) per customer, to acquire customers with an LTV of $4, making them $0 per customer. That's the natural conclusion to competition under perfect information.

samwillis 3y ago
Yes. This is what I'm saying.

drdaeman 3y ago

> They don't know this? Of course they do, but people pay crazy money for this and it plays the important role in Google's market valuation, so it's in Google's best interests to continue chanting the Big Data Big Money mantra. It doesn't help that the myth/meme is strongly backed by the whole cyberpunk genre, as people love the dystopian themes of "big corporations know everything about you, down to your most secret desires you don't even realize yourself". And it probably even work by some small but statistically significant margin, compared to some arbitrarily picked baseline, so they can even back this up if necessary. The king is naked, though.

nine_k 3y ago
If online ad campaigns did not bring sales, a lot of people would stop doing them. There are other advertisement media; there is organic-looking product placement, there is overt product placement and "influencers", etc. Still, people buy a lot of AdWords and similar, and occasionally I see a relevant ad I click. BTW ads within Facebook are usually of much better quality (for me as a reader), likely because they can correlate.more sources inside FB.
- anon25783 3y ago
  You occasionally click on "relevant" ads? I'm really curious why you would do that? Personally, I'll go out of my way to make sure that I don't buy anything referred to me by an ad, on the grounds that advertising is a vile and parasitic industry.
  - jerrre 3y ago
    Not OP but presumably they click a relevant ad because it is relevant...
  - nine_k 3y ago
    I relatively often click on ads for new electronic musical instruments, even though I rarely buy them. These are just interesting things to see, some actually novel. I sometimes click on ads about things related to IT and programming, if they mention something novel and important, just to be aware of the landscape, and what potential competition are pushing. I see ads relatively rarely though, because I run uBlock Origin. So the ads I see are usually placed in context with some care, not just randomly tucked on to an unrelated webpage. Most of the ads are really poor, as I can see if I use an unprotected browser.