I've seen this even in relatively small private orgs (1000ish) - if you don't spend your budget, then next years +/- across the board spending change will be ap

I've seen this even in relatively small private orgs (1000ish) - if you don't spend your budget, then next years +/- across the board spending change will be applied to the lower number you spent rather than what you forecast originally. Org bloat & empire building is highly incentivized, and insulates you from the bad times. If you can get all your work done with 60% of the staff, then when you are forced to kick out your bottom performers annually.. it's easy to find some. If you are basically operating lean or at the redline, you need to fight the fight hard every time the axeman comes.