4 ms·

Question: will the amount of moisture in the air remain at a net neutral balance? If so, will the precipitation fall elsewhere? What areas do we expect to get

Question: will the amount of moisture in the air remain at a net neutral balance? If so, will the precipitation fall elsewhere? What areas do we expect to get more precipitation? What borderline arable lands will become arable as a result of climate change, if any?

digdugdirk 3y ago
Good question! Unfortunately, the answer to your first question is no. Higher temperature air can "hold" more moisture than cooler temperature air. And for a fun double whammy, higher temperatures also increase ground evaporation, drying out the soil and holding that water vapour in the air. Now, you could generally assume that all that air eventually has to condense somewhere, but the problem is that we've now raised the potential threshold of what precipitation entails. So we've got drier soil (which is worse at holding moisture when it rains), more potential for precipitation, and a longer buildup time between precipitation threshold events. We've just created feedback loop that encourages flash flooding, making it more difficult to farm all areas, both old farmland and new potentially arable land. Its fun to learn about the complex system dynamics of climate physics, it'd just be more fun if it didn't come with a side serving of impending catastrophe.
- gmuslera 3y ago
  Triple whammy. Water vapor is another greenhouse gas, pretty powerful as it. And probably it will have local climate effects if not global ones.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  And then when it does rain the ground is so dried out that the rain runs right through the topsoil into the layers beneath.
rufus_foreman 3y ago
The IPCC regional fact sheets from AR6 showing expected changes in precipitation are at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets. For example, the fact sheet for North America is at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_North_and_Central_America.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC.... Many areas are in fact predicted to have increased precipitation.
csomar 3y ago
It'll fall somewhere eventually. Where, is a complex topic that I don't think anyone has the answer to (we can barely predict the weather for a few weeks). > What borderline arable lands will become arable as a result of climate change, if any? Anywhere with water will experience forestation. With higher CO2 levels, the earth will definitively become greener. But don't hold your breath for humans (pun intended).
- adrianN 3y ago
  It’s easier to predict rainfall patterns over decades than weather over weeks.
singularity2001 3y ago
for every degree the atmosphere warms it can hold 7% more water, and a recent study confirmed that it does. apparently the distribution is not even but in general we are approaching a wetter and warmer climate.

digdugdirk 3y ago

Good question! Unfortunately, the answer to your first question is no. Higher temperature air can "hold" more moisture than cooler temperature air. And for a fun double whammy, higher temperatures also increase ground evaporation, drying out the soil and holding that water vapour in the air. Now, you could generally assume that all that air eventually has to condense somewhere, but the problem is that we've now raised the potential threshold of what precipitation entails. So we've got drier soil (which is worse at holding moisture when it rains), more potential for precipitation, and a longer buildup time between precipitation threshold events. We've just created feedback loop that encourages flash flooding, making it more difficult to farm all areas, both old farmland and new potentially arable land. Its fun to learn about the complex system dynamics of climate physics, it'd just be more fun if it didn't come with a side serving of impending catastrophe.

gmuslera 3y ago
Triple whammy. Water vapor is another greenhouse gas, pretty powerful as it. And probably it will have local climate effects if not global ones.
jacquesm 3y ago
And then when it does rain the ground is so dried out that the rain runs right through the topsoil into the layers beneath.

rufus_foreman 3y ago

The IPCC regional fact sheets from AR6 showing expected changes in precipitation are at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/resources/factsheets. For example, the fact sheet for North America is at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_North_and_Central_America.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC.... Many areas are in fact predicted to have increased precipitation.

csomar 3y ago

It'll fall somewhere eventually. Where, is a complex topic that I don't think anyone has the answer to (we can barely predict the weather for a few weeks). > What borderline arable lands will become arable as a result of climate change, if any? Anywhere with water will experience forestation. With higher CO2 levels, the earth will definitively become greener. But don't hold your breath for humans (pun intended).

adrianN 3y ago
It’s easier to predict rainfall patterns over decades than weather over weeks.

singularity2001 3y ago

for every degree the atmosphere warms it can hold 7% more water, and a recent study confirmed that it does. apparently the distribution is not even but in general we are approaching a wetter and warmer climate.