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At least in the American context, it’s far from clear the lockdowns reduced mortality [1]. Adjusting for age/health Florida had similar mortality to California

At least in the American context, it’s far from clear the lockdowns reduced mortality [1]. Adjusting for age/health Florida had similar mortality to California’s. [1] https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/02/why-major-study-argues-floridas-covid-death-rate-compares-favorably-to-californias/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/02/why-major-study-argue...

ecf 3y ago
Florida also massively doctored their stats so I’m not sure how you can trust them.
- stodor89 3y ago
  I was in my wonderful homeland of Bulgaria. Every time a person died, the hospital always wrote down Covid, so they can get extra money from EU and the state. Car crash? Covid! Old age? Covid! AIDS? Covid! Drank bleach? Covid! F***ing Bulgarians living in year 3020.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    I mean, unlike Florida, that's actually smart of them to do.
  - solumunus 3y ago
    Everyone parrots this. It’s a common belief in the UK too. I’ve never seen any actual evidence that this ever took place. How do you know this? Did you just read it somewhere or is there some meat to it?
    - gorlilla 3y ago
      We had people saying the same thing where i am in the states. Except that county mwdical examiner records are freely available online and did not reflect that in any way shape or form. There were still, far more deaths from overdose and suicide than Complications of Covid-19.
      - zo1 3y ago
        That's like rebutting complaints of a rigged election by saying "the vote results for each county are freely available online, and look, clearly candidate A's votes add up to 51%!". The original complaint is that hospitals were (and provably so?) given instructions on how to mark Covid deaths for statistical purposes, and those instructions were biased to inflate the numbers. At the time this was labelled as a "conspiracy theory" in order to drive the narrative, and afterwards it came to light. "Medical examiner records" can't prove this, because they might as well have been doctored. No non-stupid person would write a report talking about patient having serious conditions A, B, and C, and then fill in a field for "cause of death" with "Covid", so of course you won't find any examples of that. Let's all be honest, the media got caught with their pants down driving a narrative to fit what they felt was right and what "TPTB" wanted, and we're all in denial now about it. The truth will eventually come out.
        manderley 3y ago
        With there being no evidence of this supposedly widespread doctoring of records, sounds more like right-wingers got caught with their pants down driving a narrative to fit what and what they felt was right and what "TPTB" wanted, and you're all in denial now about it. The truth is out.
munch117 3y ago
Observed excess US deaths: 1.34 million. Expected deaths from an unchecked epidemic: 330 million × 50% infection rate × 4% fatality rate = 6.6 million. 50% infection rate is the estimated no-lockdown epidemic penetration rate that I remember hearing from an epidemiologist. 4% was the fatality rate in Italy, February 2020, when hospitals were overwhelmed. Not even close.
- jtc331 3y ago
  4% in Italy isn't just "when hospitals were overwhelmed", it's with an aging population.
  - munch117 3y ago
    Did you actually look at the population pyramid for Italy, and compared it to the one for the US, before you made that argument? I don't think you did. Besides, even if the true number was 3.8% or 4.3%, that wouldn't change the conclusion.
mabbo 3y ago
There's two problems I have with this answer. First: we do not know that the lethality would have been without lockdowns. We didn't (often) see hospitals turning people away. The lockdowns succeeded in preventing that. But more importantly, it's not fair to judge people based on the decisions they made in the past with the information they had then, using the information we have now. Let's presume there was no difference in lethality. We did not know that at the time. But it was reasonable to believe it would be helpful and save lives. Who is sitting there going "yeah but what if it doesn't save any more lives? Let's risk it because I've got a party planned next weekend".
- jjfoooo4 3y ago
  The cost of the lockdowns was more than a missed party or two. And the point of the study quoted above is that jurisdictions that did not implement lockdowns did not experience increased mortality

ecf 3y ago

Florida also massively doctored their stats so I’m not sure how you can trust them.

stodor89 3y ago
I was in my wonderful homeland of Bulgaria. Every time a person died, the hospital always wrote down Covid, so they can get extra money from EU and the state. Car crash? Covid! Old age? Covid! AIDS? Covid! Drank bleach? Covid! F***ing Bulgarians living in year 3020.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  I mean, unlike Florida, that's actually smart of them to do.
- solumunus 3y ago
  Everyone parrots this. It’s a common belief in the UK too. I’ve never seen any actual evidence that this ever took place. How do you know this? Did you just read it somewhere or is there some meat to it?
  - gorlilla 3y ago
    We had people saying the same thing where i am in the states. Except that county mwdical examiner records are freely available online and did not reflect that in any way shape or form. There were still, far more deaths from overdose and suicide than Complications of Covid-19.
    - zo1 3y ago
      That's like rebutting complaints of a rigged election by saying "the vote results for each county are freely available online, and look, clearly candidate A's votes add up to 51%!". The original complaint is that hospitals were (and provably so?) given instructions on how to mark Covid deaths for statistical purposes, and those instructions were biased to inflate the numbers. At the time this was labelled as a "conspiracy theory" in order to drive the narrative, and afterwards it came to light. "Medical examiner records" can't prove this, because they might as well have been doctored. No non-stupid person would write a report talking about patient having serious conditions A, B, and C, and then fill in a field for "cause of death" with "Covid", so of course you won't find any examples of that. Let's all be honest, the media got caught with their pants down driving a narrative to fit what they felt was right and what "TPTB" wanted, and we're all in denial now about it. The truth will eventually come out.
      - manderley 3y ago
        With there being no evidence of this supposedly widespread doctoring of records, sounds more like right-wingers got caught with their pants down driving a narrative to fit what and what they felt was right and what "TPTB" wanted, and you're all in denial now about it. The truth is out.

munch117 3y ago

Observed excess US deaths: 1.34 million. Expected deaths from an unchecked epidemic: 330 million × 50% infection rate × 4% fatality rate = 6.6 million. 50% infection rate is the estimated no-lockdown epidemic penetration rate that I remember hearing from an epidemiologist. 4% was the fatality rate in Italy, February 2020, when hospitals were overwhelmed. Not even close.

jtc331 3y ago
4% in Italy isn't just "when hospitals were overwhelmed", it's with an aging population.
- munch117 3y ago
  Did you actually look at the population pyramid for Italy, and compared it to the one for the US, before you made that argument? I don't think you did. Besides, even if the true number was 3.8% or 4.3%, that wouldn't change the conclusion.

mabbo 3y ago

There's two problems I have with this answer. First: we do not know that the lethality would have been without lockdowns. We didn't (often) see hospitals turning people away. The lockdowns succeeded in preventing that. But more importantly, it's not fair to judge people based on the decisions they made in the past with the information they had then, using the information we have now. Let's presume there was no difference in lethality. We did not know that at the time. But it was reasonable to believe it would be helpful and save lives. Who is sitting there going "yeah but what if it doesn't save any more lives? Let's risk it because I've got a party planned next weekend".

jjfoooo4 3y ago
The cost of the lockdowns was more than a missed party or two. And the point of the study quoted above is that jurisdictions that did not implement lockdowns did not experience increased mortality