Prediction markets could help.[0] If you create a financial incentive to evaluate probabilities more accurately (conversely, expensive to manipulate), and force

Prediction markets could help.[0] If you create a financial incentive to evaluate probabilities more accurately (conversely, expensive to manipulate), and force market participants to come to an agreement, then people who are seemingly confident could "put their money where their mouth is" quite literally, or admit that they were bullshitting in the first place. There's also the opportunity to use prediction markets to hold policymakers accountable.[1] Claiming you can reduce emissions by X year is easy, but what's harder is convincing a prediction market to agree with the statement "If X is implemented, will X policy lower emissions by 10% by the year Y?" [0] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq [1] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/instead-of-pledging-to-change-the https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/instead-of-pledging-to...