4 ms·

The El Nino pattern is not an oscillation... it is a fluctuation. Nobody has ever been able to predict the next El Nino based on the historical record. That's t

The El Nino pattern is not an oscillation... it is a fluctuation. Nobody has ever been able to predict the next El Nino based on the historical record. That's typical of fluctuations driven by non-linear phenomena. These are systems that display sensitive depenence to initial condition. Even a trivial research effort should have revealed this. Go read Edward Lorenz 1995 Essence of Chaos. https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295975146/the-essence-of-chaos/ https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295975146/the-essence-of-ch... This is really embarrassingly ignorant and incorrect. Classic case of experts in one field having no idea of what's been going on in another field for decades and so making fools of themselves.

kergonath 3y ago
That is par for the course for this specific publication. I wish heir articles did not appear as often here; most of the time they do not really deserve more than an eye roll.
- MattPalmer1086 3y ago
  The article isn't about El Nino though, it is mentioned only twice. One mention is the El Nino Southern Oscillation which actually is the accepted term for it. Honestly, Quanta doesn't get everything right, but it generally has the best lay scientific articles I have found. Where else have you found that is better?
  - futurisold 3y ago
    There's nautil.us too.
gandalfgreybeer 3y ago
I’ve only taken introductory meteorology courses but I remember ENSO [1] (which uses the term oscillations). Maybe that’s what they’re referring to? [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
stevenhuang 3y ago
But if the new theory is able to predict successful observations, then what was once fluctuations can now indeed be termed oscillations as the cause is characterized. Being so hung up on the term is a bit strange considering that's precisely what the theory is setting forth to describe...

kergonath 3y ago

That is par for the course for this specific publication. I wish heir articles did not appear as often here; most of the time they do not really deserve more than an eye roll.

MattPalmer1086 3y ago
The article isn't about El Nino though, it is mentioned only twice. One mention is the El Nino Southern Oscillation which actually is the accepted term for it. Honestly, Quanta doesn't get everything right, but it generally has the best lay scientific articles I have found. Where else have you found that is better?
- futurisold 3y ago
  There's nautil.us too.

gandalfgreybeer 3y ago

I’ve only taken introductory meteorology courses but I remember ENSO [1] (which uses the term oscillations). Maybe that’s what they’re referring to? [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

stevenhuang 3y ago

But if the new theory is able to predict successful observations, then what was once fluctuations can now indeed be termed oscillations as the cause is characterized. Being so hung up on the term is a bit strange considering that's precisely what the theory is setting forth to describe...