3 ms·

Here's the paper, decide for yourself. https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-8 https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-

by ctrlp 3y ago

Here's the paper, decide for yourself. https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-8 https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-8

xapata 3y ago
Looks like my hypothesis is supported by the evidence: On page 4, you can see their regression results. In fact, they don't estimate the statistical significance of any occupation as a factor, not even the law enforcement occupation that they focused on. The "media and communications equipment workers" category had a reported 0.00% divorce rate! It seems implausible that we should infer causality from this.
- ctrlp 3y ago
  There are a few other studies on this. Maybe I'm reading these incorrectly so would appreciate your analysis. As far as I can interpret, the pattern is legit. What is especially counter-intuitive (unless you have a negative view of the profession, as I do) is that so-called professionals in mental health have a higher divorce rate even than respondents who score high on the "anger scale". So what's that all about? Divorce among physicians and other healthcare professionals in the United States https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 Medical Specialty and the Incidence of Divorce https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 Some callouts: > Survey results from 2008 through 2013 included responses from more than 40,000 physicians; 200,000 other health professionals—dentists, pharmacists, nurses and health care executives; and more than 6 million other adults who reported currently being employed and ever being married. While 24 percent of physician respondents had ever been divorced, the probability of being divorced was 25 percent among dentists, 31 percent among health care executives and 33 percent among nurses. Only pharmacists, at 23 percent, were less likely than physicians to have been divorced. Lawyers had a 27 percent probability of being divorced, and *in all non-health-care occupations, the probability of ever being divorced was 35 percent.* > A subsequent, larger study of 1118 medical graduates of Johns Hopkins University found cumulative rates of divorce of 29% *with rates higher among psychiatrists (50%)* and surgeons (33%) but was limited by its analysis of physicians from a single institution. > The choice of specialty was significantly associated (P>0.001) with the risk of divorce (Fig. 1 and Table 2). The cumulative incidence of divorce was highest for *psychiatrists (50 percent)*, followed by surgeons (33 percent) and “other” physicians (31 percent). Among internists, pediatricians, and pathologists, the incidence of divorce was similar (22 to 24 per- cent). > When we examined psychological variables, we found that physicians in the highest quartile for the anger scale had a higher risk of divorce than those scoring in the lower three quartiles. *Moreover, the cumulative incidence of divorce among the physicians with the highest anger scores was higher than that of any other subgroup, with the exception of those practicing psychiatry.*
  - xapata 3y ago
    Did you accidentally paste the same link twice? Looking at the "Medical Specialty and the Incidence of Divorce" article, my first thought on reading "Scores on these [psychological characteristic] scales were grouped according to quartiles for analysis" is that the researchers aren't experts in statistical methods, or else are hiding something by bucketing arbitrarily. It's a widespread problem in life sciences. They don't explain (not by this point in the article, at least) why they chose quartiles. I'm skeptical of any analysis that reduces the fidelity of the data without explanation. It smells like p-hacking. My second thought regarding their model is wondering why they didn't first build a model predicting divorce for the general population. I've heard (received wisdom) that financial stress is the primary cause. It seems unlikely that medical specialty is unrelated to household finances. Ignoring a likely confounding variable is sloppy. It makes the effort seem like a novelty article intended for amusement rather than serious research. It's in the "occasional notes" section of the periodical, which suggests less rigor. They do little to address the question of causality. They muse that, "One explanation is the longer work hours required in some specialties," but never bothered to analyze the hours worked. My conclusion: That article is literally a joke, published to give the community something to laugh about over beers after the conference. ---- If I were to perform the analysis, I'd first build a model of causes of divorce for the general population. Some candidate variables: household income, household income as a ratio to each person's childhood household income, cost of living where the household lives, frequency of attending religious services, number of children, number of hours worked per week, age when married, etc. I'm skeptical of psychological characteristic surveys, so I'd spend some time considering alternatives, but I'd want to include some measure of characteristics that might drive the choice of a medical specialty which might also be correlated with divorce. We want to isolate the choice of specialty as the cause as separate from confounders that cause both the choice and divorce. If medical specialty holds up as a factor after controlling for everything else, then I'd investigate further.
    - ctrlp 3y ago
      https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h706 https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h706 for the other study

by ctrlp 3y ago

Here's the paper, decide for yourself. https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-8 https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-009-9057-8

xapata 3y ago

Looks like my hypothesis is supported by the evidence: On page 4, you can see their regression results. In fact, they don't estimate the statistical significance of any occupation as a factor, not even the law enforcement occupation that they focused on. The "media and communications equipment workers" category had a reported 0.00% divorce rate! It seems implausible that we should infer causality from this.

ctrlp 3y ago
There are a few other studies on this. Maybe I'm reading these incorrectly so would appreciate your analysis. As far as I can interpret, the pattern is legit. What is especially counter-intuitive (unless you have a negative view of the profession, as I do) is that so-called professionals in mental health have a higher divorce rate even than respondents who score high on the "anger scale". So what's that all about? Divorce among physicians and other healthcare professionals in the United States https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 Medical Specialty and the Incidence of Divorce https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 https://sci-hub.st/10.1056/NEJM199703133361112 Some callouts: > Survey results from 2008 through 2013 included responses from more than 40,000 physicians; 200,000 other health professionals—dentists, pharmacists, nurses and health care executives; and more than 6 million other adults who reported currently being employed and ever being married. While 24 percent of physician respondents had ever been divorced, the probability of being divorced was 25 percent among dentists, 31 percent among health care executives and 33 percent among nurses. Only pharmacists, at 23 percent, were less likely than physicians to have been divorced. Lawyers had a 27 percent probability of being divorced, and *in all non-health-care occupations, the probability of ever being divorced was 35 percent.* > A subsequent, larger study of 1118 medical graduates of Johns Hopkins University found cumulative rates of divorce of 29% *with rates higher among psychiatrists (50%)* and surgeons (33%) but was limited by its analysis of physicians from a single institution. > The choice of specialty was significantly associated (P>0.001) with the risk of divorce (Fig. 1 and Table 2). The cumulative incidence of divorce was highest for *psychiatrists (50 percent)*, followed by surgeons (33 percent) and “other” physicians (31 percent). Among internists, pediatricians, and pathologists, the incidence of divorce was similar (22 to 24 per- cent). > When we examined psychological variables, we found that physicians in the highest quartile for the anger scale had a higher risk of divorce than those scoring in the lower three quartiles. *Moreover, the cumulative incidence of divorce among the physicians with the highest anger scores was higher than that of any other subgroup, with the exception of those practicing psychiatry.*
- xapata 3y ago
  Did you accidentally paste the same link twice? Looking at the "Medical Specialty and the Incidence of Divorce" article, my first thought on reading "Scores on these [psychological characteristic] scales were grouped according to quartiles for analysis" is that the researchers aren't experts in statistical methods, or else are hiding something by bucketing arbitrarily. It's a widespread problem in life sciences. They don't explain (not by this point in the article, at least) why they chose quartiles. I'm skeptical of any analysis that reduces the fidelity of the data without explanation. It smells like p-hacking. My second thought regarding their model is wondering why they didn't first build a model predicting divorce for the general population. I've heard (received wisdom) that financial stress is the primary cause. It seems unlikely that medical specialty is unrelated to household finances. Ignoring a likely confounding variable is sloppy. It makes the effort seem like a novelty article intended for amusement rather than serious research. It's in the "occasional notes" section of the periodical, which suggests less rigor. They do little to address the question of causality. They muse that, "One explanation is the longer work hours required in some specialties," but never bothered to analyze the hours worked. My conclusion: That article is literally a joke, published to give the community something to laugh about over beers after the conference. ---- If I were to perform the analysis, I'd first build a model of causes of divorce for the general population. Some candidate variables: household income, household income as a ratio to each person's childhood household income, cost of living where the household lives, frequency of attending religious services, number of children, number of hours worked per week, age when married, etc. I'm skeptical of psychological characteristic surveys, so I'd spend some time considering alternatives, but I'd want to include some measure of characteristics that might drive the choice of a medical specialty which might also be correlated with divorce. We want to isolate the choice of specialty as the cause as separate from confounders that cause both the choice and divorce. If medical specialty holds up as a factor after controlling for everything else, then I'd investigate further.
  - ctrlp 3y ago
    https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h706 https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h706 for the other study