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Yea, but that comparison literally underpins the main point of the article (Britain becoming like Poland is bad). Been to Poland recently? It's... kinda nice!

Yea, but that comparison literally underpins the main point of the article (Britain becoming like Poland is bad). Been to Poland recently? It's... kinda nice! He says in 10 years Britain (currently nice) = Poland (up and coming?) = Bangladesh (not as nice)

twixfel 3y ago
There wasn't even a direct comparison, which again makes such "stopped reading at X" even more brain dead. The quote that prompted the OP to discard the entire article (lol): > A slowdown in “frontier growth” and technological progress matters a lot for the United States. But it matters less to Poland or Bangladesh – countries that are still trying to get to the frontier. That Poland is a nice place is neither here nor there. Poland and Bangladesh are both playing catch up (objectively true). Britain used to not be playing catch up. Now it is starting to have to play catch up. That's bad.
rchaud 3y ago
> Been to Poland recently? It's... kinda nice! 2 decades of EU largesse and cross-Europe migrant remittances will do that. Does the UK have a similar windfall coming?
- gumballindie 3y ago
  > 2 decades of EU largesse and cross-Europe migrant remittances will do that. Does the UK have a similar windfall coming? But don't other countries have more than two decades of reimttances yet are still stuck at 10x lower gdps than poland? Could it simply be that good policy and hard work are the reasons why poland is developing?
  - rchaud 3y ago
    Good policy and hard work go a lot further when there's steady funding and guaranteed market access to support that. I'm not attributing all of Poland's advances to the EU, just mentioning that Poland's trajectory was upwards due in part to these factors. Factors that the UK does not currently have in its favour.
    - gumballindie 3y ago
      I see your point. The UK could try the same strategy, since it works, as it appears to be running out of options.
- ajuc 3y ago
  I'm from Poland, I've worked for UK company for several years and lived there from time to time. I disagree with the article main thesis. UK will still be more wealthy in 30 years, simply because wealth and GDP is not the same. Country wealth is a portion of each years' GDP accumulated over centuries - so Poland has decades to go even accounting for the depreciation of money and old infrastructure). People focus on GDP a lot, but wealth is just as important - because wealth creates opportunities and innovation. When Poland transformed from communism to capitalism most people had savings for less than a month. Nobody was rich. You can't do a startup or a company if you start starving after 1 month without income. And don't get me started about trying to get a credit when your only asset is house you share with 6 other people in the middle of post-communist nowhere. This changed in last 20 years, but we still got long way to go. People in the west are blind to how wealthy they are, and how many opportunities it creates. I worked for a small family company in UK that did embedded devices for blind people. 2 students after university created it because a father of one of them got blind. It's still hard to do in Poland. In 90s it was impossible for 99.9% of the population. Anyway - I also disagree with your characterization of Polish economic boom. The EU contribution to Poland started at about 2.5% of GDP and is currently around 1% yearly. It's nice to have, but it's not the determining factor. Polish export to EU is over 33% of GDP for comparison. It grew over 20 times since 2004. It's not the donations that keep countries in EU, it's the trade.
  - gumballindie 3y ago
    > When Poland transformed from communism to capitalism most people had savings for less than a month. Nobody was rich. You can't do a startup or a company if you start starving after 1 month without income. Ok, but that's modern britain. Millions of people can't save money and are far from rich. Plenty will starve after one month of no income. News reports seem to indicate quite a few already do even if they are employed. > In 90s it was impossible for 99.9% of the population. 99% of the british or western population doesn't start a startup either. That's why people resent the 1%. The main reason people in east europe don't have the culture of starting startups is due to the communist model that supressed the natural human tendency of doing trade and innovation. It's simple as that. Now that that's gone, Poland and the rest of the former bloc, are acquiring a taste for it. You are right about wealth accumulation though. That's why countries such as Italy or Greece for instance seem developed. Not having had a war in a long time, they were able to build their infrastructure and benefit from it. Let alone Britain that managed to accumulate wealth, by means we all know. Now that the same means can't be employed it would appear that a long, cold, period of decline lies ahead. Let's see how well these countries can handle the sea of change about to come. I bet they won't be as resilient and determined as, say Poland, which only as recently as 30 years became free and achieved so much. To put it into perspective you are probably older than your country was free. West Europe lacks that determination. The US and East Europe (and a few others) have it. The future, I believe, belongs to them.

twixfel 3y ago

There wasn't even a direct comparison, which again makes such "stopped reading at X" even more brain dead. The quote that prompted the OP to discard the entire article (lol): > A slowdown in “frontier growth” and technological progress matters a lot for the United States. But it matters less to Poland or Bangladesh – countries that are still trying to get to the frontier. That Poland is a nice place is neither here nor there. Poland and Bangladesh are both playing catch up (objectively true). Britain used to not be playing catch up. Now it is starting to have to play catch up. That's bad.

rchaud 3y ago

> Been to Poland recently? It's... kinda nice! 2 decades of EU largesse and cross-Europe migrant remittances will do that. Does the UK have a similar windfall coming?

gumballindie 3y ago
> 2 decades of EU largesse and cross-Europe migrant remittances will do that. Does the UK have a similar windfall coming? But don't other countries have more than two decades of reimttances yet are still stuck at 10x lower gdps than poland? Could it simply be that good policy and hard work are the reasons why poland is developing?
- rchaud 3y ago
  Good policy and hard work go a lot further when there's steady funding and guaranteed market access to support that. I'm not attributing all of Poland's advances to the EU, just mentioning that Poland's trajectory was upwards due in part to these factors. Factors that the UK does not currently have in its favour.
  - gumballindie 3y ago
    I see your point. The UK could try the same strategy, since it works, as it appears to be running out of options.
ajuc 3y ago
I'm from Poland, I've worked for UK company for several years and lived there from time to time. I disagree with the article main thesis. UK will still be more wealthy in 30 years, simply because wealth and GDP is not the same. Country wealth is a portion of each years' GDP accumulated over centuries - so Poland has decades to go even accounting for the depreciation of money and old infrastructure). People focus on GDP a lot, but wealth is just as important - because wealth creates opportunities and innovation. When Poland transformed from communism to capitalism most people had savings for less than a month. Nobody was rich. You can't do a startup or a company if you start starving after 1 month without income. And don't get me started about trying to get a credit when your only asset is house you share with 6 other people in the middle of post-communist nowhere. This changed in last 20 years, but we still got long way to go. People in the west are blind to how wealthy they are, and how many opportunities it creates. I worked for a small family company in UK that did embedded devices for blind people. 2 students after university created it because a father of one of them got blind. It's still hard to do in Poland. In 90s it was impossible for 99.9% of the population. Anyway - I also disagree with your characterization of Polish economic boom. The EU contribution to Poland started at about 2.5% of GDP and is currently around 1% yearly. It's nice to have, but it's not the determining factor. Polish export to EU is over 33% of GDP for comparison. It grew over 20 times since 2004. It's not the donations that keep countries in EU, it's the trade.
- gumballindie 3y ago
  > When Poland transformed from communism to capitalism most people had savings for less than a month. Nobody was rich. You can't do a startup or a company if you start starving after 1 month without income. Ok, but that's modern britain. Millions of people can't save money and are far from rich. Plenty will starve after one month of no income. News reports seem to indicate quite a few already do even if they are employed. > In 90s it was impossible for 99.9% of the population. 99% of the british or western population doesn't start a startup either. That's why people resent the 1%. The main reason people in east europe don't have the culture of starting startups is due to the communist model that supressed the natural human tendency of doing trade and innovation. It's simple as that. Now that that's gone, Poland and the rest of the former bloc, are acquiring a taste for it. You are right about wealth accumulation though. That's why countries such as Italy or Greece for instance seem developed. Not having had a war in a long time, they were able to build their infrastructure and benefit from it. Let alone Britain that managed to accumulate wealth, by means we all know. Now that the same means can't be employed it would appear that a long, cold, period of decline lies ahead. Let's see how well these countries can handle the sea of change about to come. I bet they won't be as resilient and determined as, say Poland, which only as recently as 30 years became free and achieved so much. To put it into perspective you are probably older than your country was free. West Europe lacks that determination. The US and East Europe (and a few others) have it. The future, I believe, belongs to them.