3 ms·

DuskOS is specifically for the interregnum period before full collapse, when microchips are still readily accessible, but can no longer be produced. (I think t

DuskOS is specifically for the interregnum period before full collapse, when microchips are still readily accessible, but can no longer be produced. (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.)

jacquesm 3y ago
> (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.) You should probably do me the courtesy to not make assumptions about what I've read and understood. This is such a common trope on HN that it made it into the guidelines. The whole idea that the collapse of civilization is something slow is a massive assumption, it could be all over in a few microseconds so fiddling around with tech at a level like this is an exercise in futility: if this is the level that you end up at that's pure luxury and proof that civilization has not collapsed and likely will not collapse in the near future. Microchips are not going to be much use in any situation where they can no longer be produced. They are the pinnacle of a very large pyramid and without the base the tip is next to useless. A better - and far more immediate - use case would be to target the re-use of scavenged chips in the present day undeveloped parts of the world which are 100% dependent on imported goods.
- mc32 3y ago
  Economic war, if it were to become full-blown, could result in locally constrained availability of microchips while civilizations still go on, no? Pandemic x5 or so. What if India and China decide to trade some nukes? It's not likely, but it's a possible scenario.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    It's a possibility. But in that case an all out effort to recreate a competition free fab in the west would be able to put something usable together in a few years. I don't see that as a scenario where you'd need to go for scavenged hardware, any old cellphone has enough power to deal with factory automation at that level and well beyond it. We know exactly what to build and how to tie it all together, the reason we currently do not is economics, not because we could not. Personally I think the degree to which the Western world is making itself dependent on supply chains like that is irresponsible, but I also think that to some degree it is the same kind of thinking that went on in Germany to make itself dependent on Russian gas. It goes something like 'let's tie ourselves together at the hip in an economic way so that a shooting war is no longer an option'. This presumes rational actors on both sides. Which was a giant mistake in the case of Russia and which may well be a giant mistake in the case of China and Taiwan. But then there is still Korea and possibly Japan.
    - PrimeMcFly 3y ago
      > But then there is still Korea and possibly Japan. If china becomes that aggressive that they are in open war with Taiwan, Korea and Japan won't be an option either.
- actionfromafar 3y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35046551 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35046551 "easy to imagine - a large enough collapse that making new ones is very very hard, especially compared to scrounging and repurposing the huge amount of existing ones. Imagine a huge population decline, and search parties looking through the ruins for useful tech, like computers, decades later. Such a society could probably make new computers, but the cost of making new, much worse specced computers, may not be cost effective for a long time as long as old computers can be found and repaired. Edit: such a movie or novel would make for great Fallout-ish world-building. Imagine for instance a large hotel in a big city running the booking system on an old laptop in a central secure location, and new 8-bit computers used as terminals at the front desk. Public access 8-bit computer terminals at public libraries connected to copies of WikiPedia running on some old gaming rig and such things. :-) "
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Yes, it would make for a nice movie. But real life isn't a movie and of course I'm fine with individuals making their own decisions I still think we should look at the general picture through the lens of finding out what the likelihood of certain scenarios is first. Prepping for an intermediate stage is ultimately not a very good disaster mitigation strategy, you plan for the worst and hope for the best. This intermediary stage of a slow slide isn't going to be stopped because of some FORTH code if and when it happens. But I wish those who believe it will all the best. edit: I think this sort of thinking is more of an excuse to scratch an itch than a realistic scenario. We are not so addicted to computers - yet - that we could not revert back to some stable society without them, but some of us are so addicted to them that we can't imagine a society without them. The first couple of hours of any major crisis will likely correct that in ways that are going to be very unpleasant. Effectively aiming for something 'in the middle' is aiming for a crisis that isn't a crisis. Anything that actually is a crisis would be better served by acid free prints of Wikipedia and the designs of common farm implements that can be made with just bench tools. You'd be on your feet again in a short few hundred years. But if you remain addicted to playing around in FORTH while the world goes to pieces around you chances are you'll be kicked out of any community you're a part of because you're slacking off your farming duties. Any world where you think you might need this will be so drastically altered from the one you live in today that you won't need it, you'll be way too busy to try to stay alive.

jacquesm 3y ago

> (I think the author’s predictions about the collapse of civilization are overblown, but still, if you’re going to engage in a middlebrow dismissal, at least do us the courtesy of reading and understanding what you’re dismissing.) You should probably do me the courtesy to not make assumptions about what I've read and understood. This is such a common trope on HN that it made it into the guidelines. The whole idea that the collapse of civilization is something slow is a massive assumption, it could be all over in a few microseconds so fiddling around with tech at a level like this is an exercise in futility: if this is the level that you end up at that's pure luxury and proof that civilization has not collapsed and likely will not collapse in the near future. Microchips are not going to be much use in any situation where they can no longer be produced. They are the pinnacle of a very large pyramid and without the base the tip is next to useless. A better - and far more immediate - use case would be to target the re-use of scavenged chips in the present day undeveloped parts of the world which are 100% dependent on imported goods.

mc32 3y ago
Economic war, if it were to become full-blown, could result in locally constrained availability of microchips while civilizations still go on, no? Pandemic x5 or so. What if India and China decide to trade some nukes? It's not likely, but it's a possible scenario.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  It's a possibility. But in that case an all out effort to recreate a competition free fab in the west would be able to put something usable together in a few years. I don't see that as a scenario where you'd need to go for scavenged hardware, any old cellphone has enough power to deal with factory automation at that level and well beyond it. We know exactly what to build and how to tie it all together, the reason we currently do not is economics, not because we could not. Personally I think the degree to which the Western world is making itself dependent on supply chains like that is irresponsible, but I also think that to some degree it is the same kind of thinking that went on in Germany to make itself dependent on Russian gas. It goes something like 'let's tie ourselves together at the hip in an economic way so that a shooting war is no longer an option'. This presumes rational actors on both sides. Which was a giant mistake in the case of Russia and which may well be a giant mistake in the case of China and Taiwan. But then there is still Korea and possibly Japan.
  - PrimeMcFly 3y ago
    > But then there is still Korea and possibly Japan. If china becomes that aggressive that they are in open war with Taiwan, Korea and Japan won't be an option either.
actionfromafar 3y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35046551 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35046551 "easy to imagine - a large enough collapse that making new ones is very very hard, especially compared to scrounging and repurposing the huge amount of existing ones. Imagine a huge population decline, and search parties looking through the ruins for useful tech, like computers, decades later. Such a society could probably make new computers, but the cost of making new, much worse specced computers, may not be cost effective for a long time as long as old computers can be found and repaired. Edit: such a movie or novel would make for great Fallout-ish world-building. Imagine for instance a large hotel in a big city running the booking system on an old laptop in a central secure location, and new 8-bit computers used as terminals at the front desk. Public access 8-bit computer terminals at public libraries connected to copies of WikiPedia running on some old gaming rig and such things. :-) "
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Yes, it would make for a nice movie. But real life isn't a movie and of course I'm fine with individuals making their own decisions I still think we should look at the general picture through the lens of finding out what the likelihood of certain scenarios is first. Prepping for an intermediate stage is ultimately not a very good disaster mitigation strategy, you plan for the worst and hope for the best. This intermediary stage of a slow slide isn't going to be stopped because of some FORTH code if and when it happens. But I wish those who believe it will all the best. edit: I think this sort of thinking is more of an excuse to scratch an itch than a realistic scenario. We are not so addicted to computers - yet - that we could not revert back to some stable society without them, but some of us are so addicted to them that we can't imagine a society without them. The first couple of hours of any major crisis will likely correct that in ways that are going to be very unpleasant. Effectively aiming for something 'in the middle' is aiming for a crisis that isn't a crisis. Anything that actually is a crisis would be better served by acid free prints of Wikipedia and the designs of common farm implements that can be made with just bench tools. You'd be on your feet again in a short few hundred years. But if you remain addicted to playing around in FORTH while the world goes to pieces around you chances are you'll be kicked out of any community you're a part of because you're slacking off your farming duties. Any world where you think you might need this will be so drastically altered from the one you live in today that you won't need it, you'll be way too busy to try to stay alive.