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>What does the future look like when we have 10 times as energy available? What does the future look like when we have 10 times the efficency on energy use? Th

by effed3 3y ago

>What does the future look like when we have 10 times as energy available? What does the future look like when we have 10 times the efficency on energy use? This is the right question/goal. Denemark (IIRC) has sometimes reached the 100% solar/wind coverage, sure in a sunny day and low demand situation, but 10 years ago this was unthinkable. This appear the true way of prosperity, not the growt of availability/consumption.

zerodensity 3y ago
Having excess energy is great! We can use it for alot of useful stuff. For example to: - Recycle waste products. Most (not all) things are recyclable you just need the energy. - Grow food vertically so more land can be nature. - Siphon greenhouse gasses out of the atmosphere. - Desalinate Water
- effed3 3y ago
  About this i absolutely agree.. if there is an equal amount of wisdom.
- ianburrell 3y ago
  Many of those extra things can be intermittent and shut down when excess power isn’t available. Which means can overbuild solar and wind to satisfy everything but the worst case, and use the excess most of the time. The result is that don’t need seasonal storage only daily storage. It is likely better to build more capacity than long-term storage. Although, generated fuels like hydrogen might work well for long-term storage.
  - Equadex 3y ago
    Production facilities idleing is not free. Intermittent production means the equipment isn't generating any money while costing the owner money. Wheter this is significant depends on the cost of the facility, economic yield from production and if costs are energy dominant or not.
rayiner 3y ago
> What does the future look like when we have 10 times the efficency on energy use Energy efficiency improvements of that magnitude don’t exist. In most industries, getting a 10% efficiency improvement would be groundbreaking. These are limits dictated by physics.
- effed3 3y ago
  True, an overall 10% improvement is a big number, one order of magnitude is SF now. But for single technologies, more than 10% is possible, internal combustion engines vs electric, incandescent light vs led.. So reasoning on the global efficiency (resource and energy use, recycling of materials, capture of wasted energy, ) is the mainline to go. IN nature photosynthesis is around 100% efficient.
  - genocidicbunny 3y ago
    > IN nature photosynthesis is around 100% efficient. If your measure of efficiency of photosynthesis is how much sunlight is turned into chemical energy, its in the low single digit percentages. C4 photosynthesis is something like ~4% efficient, C3 is lower still.
  - p1mrx 3y ago
    > photosynthesis is around 100% efficient. It's closer to 2% efficient: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency#Plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency#Plan...
  - effed3 3y ago
    Ops, true, overall photosynthesis is low, i remembered some higher capture eff. at some wavelenghts.. (just retina photon conversion is about 50% IIRC)
- cma 3y ago
  It exists for some segments, it happened for household lighting.
  - 3y ago
bob1029 3y ago
> This is the right question/goal. No. I have seen the effects of this "goal" at scale in my personal life. Semi-non-effective HVAC systems that I now have to run 24/7/365, LED lights with weird flicker that perpetually antagonize me everywhere, vehicles with obnoxious start/stop mechanisms that absolutely induce premature wear (causing much more serious waste than otherwise). Oh yeah - my washing machine doesn't really fill up with water all the way, so I run FOUR cycles just to make sure everything is properly rinsed. This one isn't even directly about energy (someone was trying to save water), but it consumes more energy as a consequence. Is this what the environmentalists were going for with the fake "deep fill" selector knob on my ultra-high "efficiency" machine? The people pushing "efficiency at any cost" are either completely blind to the idea of 2nd order+ consequences or are evil/anti-human. I cannot fathom a different set of options. Do you realize that you have to live on this damn planet with all these side-effects too? I am completely over it. Let's figure out how to make energy carbon free and infinite. Let's stop fucking over the user experience in every possible way just so we can feel like we are doing something to "help".
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  The water saving thing is truly obnoxious because water is a very regional issue. Why are people in regions with more than ample fresh water made to use inferior toilets designed to use little fresh water? Because activists from dry places think their regional water problems are universal and try to foist their water-saving nonsense onto everybody else. They're coming for high-flow shower-heads too; it takes me three times as long to rinse out my hair with those shower-heads so the water savings don't even exist. I think it's probably only a matter of time before they start making shower heads with built-in timers that force everybody to take navy showers.
  - bob1029 3y ago
    > I think it's probably only a matter of time before they start making shower heads with built-in timers that force everybody to take navy showers. Moen already has a "smart" shower. https://www.moen.com/smart-home/smart-shower https://www.moen.com/smart-home/smart-shower
- 3y ago

by effed3 3y ago

zerodensity 3y ago

Having excess energy is great! We can use it for alot of useful stuff. For example to: - Recycle waste products. Most (not all) things are recyclable you just need the energy. - Grow food vertically so more land can be nature. - Siphon greenhouse gasses out of the atmosphere. - Desalinate Water

effed3 3y ago
About this i absolutely agree.. if there is an equal amount of wisdom.
ianburrell 3y ago
Many of those extra things can be intermittent and shut down when excess power isn’t available. Which means can overbuild solar and wind to satisfy everything but the worst case, and use the excess most of the time. The result is that don’t need seasonal storage only daily storage. It is likely better to build more capacity than long-term storage. Although, generated fuels like hydrogen might work well for long-term storage.
- Equadex 3y ago
  Production facilities idleing is not free. Intermittent production means the equipment isn't generating any money while costing the owner money. Wheter this is significant depends on the cost of the facility, economic yield from production and if costs are energy dominant or not.

rayiner 3y ago

> What does the future look like when we have 10 times the efficency on energy use Energy efficiency improvements of that magnitude don’t exist. In most industries, getting a 10% efficiency improvement would be groundbreaking. These are limits dictated by physics.

effed3 3y ago
True, an overall 10% improvement is a big number, one order of magnitude is SF now. But for single technologies, more than 10% is possible, internal combustion engines vs electric, incandescent light vs led.. So reasoning on the global efficiency (resource and energy use, recycling of materials, capture of wasted energy, ) is the mainline to go. IN nature photosynthesis is around 100% efficient.
- genocidicbunny 3y ago
  > IN nature photosynthesis is around 100% efficient. If your measure of efficiency of photosynthesis is how much sunlight is turned into chemical energy, its in the low single digit percentages. C4 photosynthesis is something like ~4% efficient, C3 is lower still.
- p1mrx 3y ago
  > photosynthesis is around 100% efficient. It's closer to 2% efficient: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency#Plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency#Plan...
- effed3 3y ago
  Ops, true, overall photosynthesis is low, i remembered some higher capture eff. at some wavelenghts.. (just retina photon conversion is about 50% IIRC)
cma 3y ago
It exists for some segments, it happened for household lighting.
- 3y ago

bob1029 3y ago

> This is the right question/goal. No. I have seen the effects of this "goal" at scale in my personal life. Semi-non-effective HVAC systems that I now have to run 24/7/365, LED lights with weird flicker that perpetually antagonize me everywhere, vehicles with obnoxious start/stop mechanisms that absolutely induce premature wear (causing much more serious waste than otherwise). Oh yeah - my washing machine doesn't really fill up with water all the way, so I run FOUR cycles just to make sure everything is properly rinsed. This one isn't even directly about energy (someone was trying to save water), but it consumes more energy as a consequence. Is this what the environmentalists were going for with the fake "deep fill" selector knob on my ultra-high "efficiency" machine? The people pushing "efficiency at any cost" are either completely blind to the idea of 2nd order+ consequences or are evil/anti-human. I cannot fathom a different set of options. Do you realize that you have to live on this damn planet with all these side-effects too? I am completely over it. Let's figure out how to make energy carbon free and infinite. Let's stop fucking over the user experience in every possible way just so we can feel like we are doing something to "help".

mcpackieh 3y ago
The water saving thing is truly obnoxious because water is a very regional issue. Why are people in regions with more than ample fresh water made to use inferior toilets designed to use little fresh water? Because activists from dry places think their regional water problems are universal and try to foist their water-saving nonsense onto everybody else. They're coming for high-flow shower-heads too; it takes me three times as long to rinse out my hair with those shower-heads so the water savings don't even exist. I think it's probably only a matter of time before they start making shower heads with built-in timers that force everybody to take navy showers.
- bob1029 3y ago
  > I think it's probably only a matter of time before they start making shower heads with built-in timers that force everybody to take navy showers. Moen already has a "smart" shower. https://www.moen.com/smart-home/smart-shower https://www.moen.com/smart-home/smart-shower
3y ago