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A lot of people in the rationalist community are pretty obsessed with prediction markets, but I haven't seen clear evidence that they're actually useful or effe
by TheAceOfHearts 3y ago
A lot of people in the rationalist community are pretty obsessed with prediction markets, but I haven't seen clear evidence that they're actually useful or effective. In particular, I often see examples of prediction markets getting things incredibly wrong in areas where I know better, but I have little interest in playing games for monopoly money and imaginary internet points.
- rsynnott 3y agoSome prediction markets actually deal in either cryptocurrency or real money. Though these have the additional disadvantage, beyond all the other problems with prediction markets, that, as generally poorly rated financial markets, they’re very vulnerable to market manipulation (and there’s a strong incentive for market manipulation).