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Anecdotal, but the only people I know who use prediction markets are diehard twitter fans. I’ve said before, in my opinion Twitter has to fix the problems that
by hhh 3y ago
Anecdotal, but the only people I know who use prediction markets are diehard twitter fans.
I’ve said before, in my opinion Twitter has to fix the problems that they’re having with regressions allowing massive crypto scam spam, pushing of blue users to the top, and the lack of moderation or community notes.
It’s just become quite shit in my experience. Threads has been nice so far, but needs to open up to EU to thrive.
- LapsangGuzzler 3y agoI agree, it’s been shocking to see the unforced errors that Twitter has committed since the Musk takeover. Threads doesn’t need to match or beat Twitter in terms of feature parity. They just need to keep Threads stable while Twitter bleeds out. Twitter is now cash flow negative and Musk is starting to cut checks to content creators to stay, it’s hard to see them surviving this in the long-term.
- TheAceOfHearts 3y agoA lot of people in the rationalist community are pretty obsessed with prediction markets, but I haven't seen clear evidence that they're actually useful or effective. In particular, I often see examples of prediction markets getting things incredibly wrong in areas where I know better, but I have little interest in playing games for monopoly money and imaginary internet points.
- rsynnott 3y agoSome prediction markets actually deal in either cryptocurrency or real money. Though these have the additional disadvantage, beyond all the other problems with prediction markets, that, as generally poorly rated financial markets, they’re very vulnerable to market manipulation (and there’s a strong incentive for market manipulation).