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What is missing from the article is the reason the startup picked eggs. The main reason is that eggs are very expensive due to the invasive procedure needed to

by 0dayz 3y ago

What is missing from the article is the reason the startup picked eggs. The main reason is that eggs are very expensive due to the invasive procedure needed to extract healthy one (and the after effect of the procedure whole not dangerous to my knowledge can require you to stay in the hospital to recover). But fertility medtech is something that brings I think the reoccurring question of the biggest reason we don't have kids after financial, and that is that the 1950s model isn't sustainable/compatible with modern day lifestyle and no amount of conservative lifestyleshaming will change that. And the solutions to that can only be done via social ingenuity, something I think in general there's very little research and interest in. So the question then becomes of course just what solution will be used? Will we see government run child homes? Maybe a new definition of family based more of old tradional agrarian communal family structure? Something entirely new? Who knows but I think it's equally important to figure out a new more sustainable way of raising kids than the 1950s model as it is to fertility medtech.

bawolff 3y ago
> Will we see government run child homes? It seems like quite a jump to skip right over daycare into gov run child homes.
- 0dayz 3y ago
  In a way daycare is a temporary child home.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
inglor_cz 3y ago
From the societal point of view, the difference between TFR 1,5 and 1,8 might be quite crucial. Both translate towards an aging and shrinking population, but one of the slopes is much less steep and more manageable. Putting political labels aside, the main current problem with fertility is the length of education and career start. For someone who wants to have a good job, it means spending your twenties without actually making money and obtaining property. In the 30s, when this platform is finally built, plenty of people suddenly find that their fertility is no longer sufficient to produce the desired number of offspring. Given that we are not likely to see shorter career starts anytime soon, IVF improvements seem to be the only way to partially escape this trap. Also, gametes produced by this method could be cheaper in the long run. Classical stimulation involves a lot of doctors and procedures. Maybe this process could be automated and streamlined; it matters way less if you produce "only" 400 ova out of 500 possible than if you get 4 instead of 5 ova from a living person.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > Putting political labels aside, the main current problem with fertility is the length of education and career start. For someone who wants to have a good job, it means spending your twenties without actually making money and obtaining property. In the 30s, when this platform is finally built, plenty of people suddenly find that their fertility is no longer sufficient to produce the desired number of offspring. A big part of that is rising life expectancy. I'm 31, and my parents (probably and hopefully) won't die until I'm 60+ myself - which means unlike the generation prior to mine that had a reasonable hope of inheriting some wealth as a kickstarter (i.e. a downpayment or a place to live without having to pay shitloads in rent), I and many others of my generation will not have that. Related to this is that so fucking many Boomers can't leave the workforce - some (more so in the US) because they literally can't afford to live otherwise, but here in the EU more because they are completely unable to imagine a life without work. The result is that all upper layers of management are filled with old people, and young ones can't rise (and earn more money). Just look at the German Mittelstand - the amount of 80+ year olds still running their companies is utterly insane.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    You are right, healthcare improvements have translated into enormous slowdown of generation exchange on the top. The average age of CEOs of the largest 500 companies in the world at hire has grown 14 years between 2005-2019 [0], i.e. no generation exchange at all. Looking at the American politics, the combined age of Trump and Biden exceeded 150 in the last election, first such event in American history. Given that they both may be running again ... oh, well. And in the Czech presidential election, the winner (61 y.o., with a grandfatherly gray mane) defeated a 68-y.o. challenger. Putin is over 70, Xi is over 70, the Pope is over 80, the freshly crowned British king only stopped being "prince" at 74. Now add some more longevity progress onto the table and the once-famously geriatric Brezhnev politburo may start looking like a kindergarten. I can definitely see some members of the American Senate or SCOTUS exceeding 100 by 2050. [0] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/ceo-ages-at-hire.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/ce...
jokethrowaway 3y ago
> 1950s model isn't sustainable/compatible with modern day lifestyle I genuinely don't understand what you mean by that (as a parent of three who knows plenty of modern parents). The whole "your life is over once you have kids" is a falsehood from my experience. I'm working less, making more and picked up all the hobbies I wanted to pick. The first 2-3 years can be more demanding but nothing like the scaremongering I've heard all my life. Sure, I spend weekends with the family and not partying in Ibiza. > Will we see government run child homes? Where do you think the clones for the Galactic Empire in Star Wars are coming from?
- mnky9800n 3y ago
  Jango Fett DNA.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  That's wonderful for you that you're working less and making more; do you think that's the experience for everyone? Aren't around half of all births paid for via Medicaid these days?
- bcrosby95 3y ago
  A lot probably depends on how much personal time you expect to get, how you spend your free time, and how serious you are about what you do in your free time.
woleium 3y ago
I'd have picked eggs too. Curren process costs around $10k, only works for women under 40 (ish), takes 2 weeks of being pumped full of hormones, followed by up to a week of bed rest after the retrieval operation. To be able to offer this to men and women of any age with nothing more than a cheek swab sounds like a real breakthrough.
bradleyjg 3y ago
What is missing from the article is the reason the startup picked eggs. The main reason is that eggs are very expensive due to the invasive procedure needed to extract healthy one (and the after effect of the procedure whole not dangerous to my knowledge can require you to stay in the hospital to recover). The other thing is that even after you go through all that you get 0-30 usable eggs. There’s steep further attrition at every step of the process. A couple is lucky to end with 5 implantable blastocysts at the end of multiple rounds of egg extraction, fertilization, and cultivation. This makes embryo selection for multiple traits very weak and not really worth it. However, if hundred or thousands of eggs could easily be produced that would open up a lot more possibilities. There’d still need to be other advances—current cultivation, cell biopsy, and genetic testing techniques would not scale—but it would very much open the door. Scientists are understandably reluctant to make this point, given the Luddism on display even at a place like HN.
jacooper 3y ago
> But fertility medtech is something that brings I think the reoccurring question of the biggest reason we don't have kids after financial, and that is that the 1950s model isn't sustainable/compatible with modern day lifestyle and no amount of conservative lifestyleshaming will change that. In the west, eastern cultures aren't suffering the same problems for a reason, they still value families. The west doesn't seem to do so, and i think it's one of the reasons for the "mental health pandemic".
- 0dayz 3y ago
  Not a single Eastern European country has a replacement birth rate[0]. In fact certain Eastern European countries have a worse birth rate than western European countries[1]. It's also makes no sense to proclaim "eastern Europe" as a unified cultural group, as eastern Europe technically includes Austria, despite Austria having a modern history more aligned with western Europe due to not being part of the Warsaw bloc. And no, even if we take your argument at face value eastern European culture does not value "family" more in practice, outwards it does, but younger people in eastern Europe are just like westerners in that they are seeking out career, social and cultural fulfillment before wanting to settle down. The only real difference between west and eastern Europe is that Western Europe is aware of the issue and don't know what to do (yet), while certain eastern European countries thinks that you can duct tape conservatism with modern ideals (and cut away anything that doesn't fit their view). [0]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/DDN-20230309-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/D... [1]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics#The_birth_rate_in_the_EU_decreased_at_a_slower_pace_between_2000_and_2021_than_previously https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
  - jacooper 3y ago
    I wasn't talking about eastern Europe.
unaindz 3y ago
It is actually a dangerous operation, probably most if not all invasive operations are.

by 0dayz 3y ago

bawolff 3y ago

> Will we see government run child homes? It seems like quite a jump to skip right over daycare into gov run child homes.

0dayz 3y ago
In a way daycare is a temporary child home.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

inglor_cz 3y ago

From the societal point of view, the difference between TFR 1,5 and 1,8 might be quite crucial. Both translate towards an aging and shrinking population, but one of the slopes is much less steep and more manageable. Putting political labels aside, the main current problem with fertility is the length of education and career start. For someone who wants to have a good job, it means spending your twenties without actually making money and obtaining property. In the 30s, when this platform is finally built, plenty of people suddenly find that their fertility is no longer sufficient to produce the desired number of offspring. Given that we are not likely to see shorter career starts anytime soon, IVF improvements seem to be the only way to partially escape this trap. Also, gametes produced by this method could be cheaper in the long run. Classical stimulation involves a lot of doctors and procedures. Maybe this process could be automated and streamlined; it matters way less if you produce "only" 400 ova out of 500 possible than if you get 4 instead of 5 ova from a living person.

mschuster91 3y ago
> Putting political labels aside, the main current problem with fertility is the length of education and career start. For someone who wants to have a good job, it means spending your twenties without actually making money and obtaining property. In the 30s, when this platform is finally built, plenty of people suddenly find that their fertility is no longer sufficient to produce the desired number of offspring. A big part of that is rising life expectancy. I'm 31, and my parents (probably and hopefully) won't die until I'm 60+ myself - which means unlike the generation prior to mine that had a reasonable hope of inheriting some wealth as a kickstarter (i.e. a downpayment or a place to live without having to pay shitloads in rent), I and many others of my generation will not have that. Related to this is that so fucking many Boomers can't leave the workforce - some (more so in the US) because they literally can't afford to live otherwise, but here in the EU more because they are completely unable to imagine a life without work. The result is that all upper layers of management are filled with old people, and young ones can't rise (and earn more money). Just look at the German Mittelstand - the amount of 80+ year olds still running their companies is utterly insane.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  You are right, healthcare improvements have translated into enormous slowdown of generation exchange on the top. The average age of CEOs of the largest 500 companies in the world at hire has grown 14 years between 2005-2019 [0], i.e. no generation exchange at all. Looking at the American politics, the combined age of Trump and Biden exceeded 150 in the last election, first such event in American history. Given that they both may be running again ... oh, well. And in the Czech presidential election, the winner (61 y.o., with a grandfatherly gray mane) defeated a 68-y.o. challenger. Putin is over 70, Xi is over 70, the Pope is over 80, the freshly crowned British king only stopped being "prince" at 74. Now add some more longevity progress onto the table and the once-famously geriatric Brezhnev politburo may start looking like a kindergarten. I can definitely see some members of the American Senate or SCOTUS exceeding 100 by 2050. [0] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/ceo-ages-at-hire.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/ce...

jokethrowaway 3y ago

> 1950s model isn't sustainable/compatible with modern day lifestyle I genuinely don't understand what you mean by that (as a parent of three who knows plenty of modern parents). The whole "your life is over once you have kids" is a falsehood from my experience. I'm working less, making more and picked up all the hobbies I wanted to pick. The first 2-3 years can be more demanding but nothing like the scaremongering I've heard all my life. Sure, I spend weekends with the family and not partying in Ibiza. > Will we see government run child homes? Where do you think the clones for the Galactic Empire in Star Wars are coming from?

mnky9800n 3y ago
Jango Fett DNA.
hotpotamus 3y ago
That's wonderful for you that you're working less and making more; do you think that's the experience for everyone? Aren't around half of all births paid for via Medicaid these days?
bcrosby95 3y ago
A lot probably depends on how much personal time you expect to get, how you spend your free time, and how serious you are about what you do in your free time.

woleium 3y ago

I'd have picked eggs too. Curren process costs around $10k, only works for women under 40 (ish), takes 2 weeks of being pumped full of hormones, followed by up to a week of bed rest after the retrieval operation. To be able to offer this to men and women of any age with nothing more than a cheek swab sounds like a real breakthrough.

bradleyjg 3y ago

What is missing from the article is the reason the startup picked eggs. The main reason is that eggs are very expensive due to the invasive procedure needed to extract healthy one (and the after effect of the procedure whole not dangerous to my knowledge can require you to stay in the hospital to recover). The other thing is that even after you go through all that you get 0-30 usable eggs. There’s steep further attrition at every step of the process. A couple is lucky to end with 5 implantable blastocysts at the end of multiple rounds of egg extraction, fertilization, and cultivation. This makes embryo selection for multiple traits very weak and not really worth it. However, if hundred or thousands of eggs could easily be produced that would open up a lot more possibilities. There’d still need to be other advances—current cultivation, cell biopsy, and genetic testing techniques would not scale—but it would very much open the door. Scientists are understandably reluctant to make this point, given the Luddism on display even at a place like HN.

jacooper 3y ago

> But fertility medtech is something that brings I think the reoccurring question of the biggest reason we don't have kids after financial, and that is that the 1950s model isn't sustainable/compatible with modern day lifestyle and no amount of conservative lifestyleshaming will change that. In the west, eastern cultures aren't suffering the same problems for a reason, they still value families. The west doesn't seem to do so, and i think it's one of the reasons for the "mental health pandemic".

0dayz 3y ago
Not a single Eastern European country has a replacement birth rate[0]. In fact certain Eastern European countries have a worse birth rate than western European countries[1]. It's also makes no sense to proclaim "eastern Europe" as a unified cultural group, as eastern Europe technically includes Austria, despite Austria having a modern history more aligned with western Europe due to not being part of the Warsaw bloc. And no, even if we take your argument at face value eastern European culture does not value "family" more in practice, outwards it does, but younger people in eastern Europe are just like westerners in that they are seeking out career, social and cultural fulfillment before wanting to settle down. The only real difference between west and eastern Europe is that Western Europe is aware of the issue and don't know what to do (yet), while certain eastern European countries thinks that you can duct tape conservatism with modern ideals (and cut away anything that doesn't fit their view). [0]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/DDN-20230309-1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/D... [1]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics#The_birth_rate_in_the_EU_decreased_at_a_slower_pace_between_2000_and_2021_than_previously https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
- jacooper 3y ago
  I wasn't talking about eastern Europe.

unaindz 3y ago

It is actually a dangerous operation, probably most if not all invasive operations are.