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There's also the related idea of Superforecasting (explored initially by Tetlock): some people seem to just be really damn good at assigning probabilities to ev
by kqr 3y ago
There's also the related idea of Superforecasting (explored initially by Tetlock): some people seem to just be really damn good at assigning probabilities to events. A platform like Metaculus allows finding those people and, at least to some extent, training them.
- tersh 3y agoYeah, Metaculus trains, identifies, and hires "Metaculus Pro Forecasters" for particular projects: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#what-are-pros https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#what-are-pros