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https://www.cfidarren.com/r-178dissected.htm https://www.cfidarren.com/r-178dissected.htm Broad Points: 1. The study was done in 1954, not 1991. 2. The AI, DG

https://www.cfidarren.com/r-178dissected.htm https://www.cfidarren.com/r-178dissected.htm Broad Points: 1. The study was done in 1954, not 1991. 2. The AI, DG and VSI were covered. 3. The subjects had received NO prior instrument training whatsoever, typical for private pilots of that time period. 4. The study was performed in a real airplane, a Bonanza. None of the students had ever flown a complex high-performance aircraft prior to the study. Yes, flying IMC as a non IFR pilot is dangerous, but the video/study is misleading. I can't find the original source for 86% but I'd bet anything that a PPLs today would not die 86% of the time if they flew into IMC, I suspect they mean it was fatal in 86% of the cases where there was an incident.

psunavy03 3y ago
No one is saying a brief smidgen of inadvertent IFR is dangerous. Flying through puffies while cloud-surfing is not going to get you killed, and no one actually follows the FAA recommended cloud clearances anyway. What IS going to kill a VFR-only pilot is things like scud-running under a marginal ceiling trying to press an airport because "I swear it can't be that bad based on the last PIREP and I have to meet Mom/Dad/spouse/girlfriend/boyfriend/buddies because X." Then they find out the ceiling IS that bad, they go inadvertent IMC, they freak out, and now we're off to the races. Maybe they wrap it up too tight trying to do a 180. Maybe they CFIT. Maybe they pop out again mid-turn and now they're lost AND freaked out. One of the #1 rules of aviation is to KNOW YOUR LIMITS.
- BWStearns 3y ago
  For sure, I just felt like the specific numbers needed to be called out as very misleading. You don't fly safer by having unrealistic fears, you fly safer by having realistic fears. Being deeply and wrongly convinced you will insta-die if you _have_ to fly instrument for a minute will not help you if you get stuck and have to do that minute. That said, as a lowly PPL, I think we PPLs should do foggle practice somewhat regularly especially if you intend to fly at night in a rural/coastal area. There've been a few CFITs into the ocean at a nearby airport because of non-instrument PPLs taking off out into the ocean with no references.

psunavy03 3y ago

No one is saying a brief smidgen of inadvertent IFR is dangerous. Flying through puffies while cloud-surfing is not going to get you killed, and no one actually follows the FAA recommended cloud clearances anyway. What IS going to kill a VFR-only pilot is things like scud-running under a marginal ceiling trying to press an airport because "I swear it can't be that bad based on the last PIREP and I have to meet Mom/Dad/spouse/girlfriend/boyfriend/buddies because X." Then they find out the ceiling IS that bad, they go inadvertent IMC, they freak out, and now we're off to the races. Maybe they wrap it up too tight trying to do a 180. Maybe they CFIT. Maybe they pop out again mid-turn and now they're lost AND freaked out. One of the #1 rules of aviation is to KNOW YOUR LIMITS.

BWStearns 3y ago
For sure, I just felt like the specific numbers needed to be called out as very misleading. You don't fly safer by having unrealistic fears, you fly safer by having realistic fears. Being deeply and wrongly convinced you will insta-die if you _have_ to fly instrument for a minute will not help you if you get stuck and have to do that minute. That said, as a lowly PPL, I think we PPLs should do foggle practice somewhat regularly especially if you intend to fly at night in a rural/coastal area. There've been a few CFITs into the ocean at a nearby airport because of non-instrument PPLs taking off out into the ocean with no references.