2 ms·

Yes. The original phrasing is ambiguous though and the one I replied to doesn't say this. Without this very specific point, the other intuitive answer about swi

by IanCal 3y ago

Yes. The original phrasing is ambiguous though and the one I replied to doesn't say this. Without this very specific point, the other intuitive answer about switching is actually correct. > Picking randomly wouldn’t make sense. You’d pick a goat, then the host could randomly reveal the car and the game would end anticlimactically If you want to try and take the riddle that way, it also wouldn't make sense to always offer the switch. They offered the switch this time, but is that a bluff? Would make for a lot better tv show. But just like prison guards don't set up elaborate schemes for 100 prisoners to be let go, we constrain ourselves to the invented universe of the riddle. If you read a framing of lights with l and w and no setup explaining how the lights are logically changed the answer is not clear. If it is - your intuition is wrong.

latexr 3y ago
The original phrasing of the problem is not ambiguous at all: > Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem You can change the rules however you like but then it’s no longer the Monty Hall problem, and that’s what we’re discussing: a brain teaser with well defined rules and probabilistic interpretation.
- IanCal 3y ago
  That's not the original phrasing because that's from 1990, have a look at the wiki page you linked. The original problem does not specify that Monty will never open a box with the keys in. The game would still work if this was the case as Monty offers to buy the box before doing so. In the original problem, Monty says the chance is 1/2, which would actually be true if they had opened them randomly. (edit - a game where the host offers to buy the box you have before another one is opened is essentially the end part of deal or no deal). Even the 1990 version however is ambiguous when it comes to puzzles. It just says they open a door which has a goat. The solution originally posted explicitly assumes it to be the case, which is fine.

by IanCal 3y ago

latexr 3y ago

The original phrasing of the problem is not ambiguous at all: > Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem You can change the rules however you like but then it’s no longer the Monty Hall problem, and that’s what we’re discussing: a brain teaser with well defined rules and probabilistic interpretation.

IanCal 3y ago
That's not the original phrasing because that's from 1990, have a look at the wiki page you linked. The original problem does not specify that Monty will never open a box with the keys in. The game would still work if this was the case as Monty offers to buy the box before doing so. In the original problem, Monty says the chance is 1/2, which would actually be true if they had opened them randomly. (edit - a game where the host offers to buy the box you have before another one is opened is essentially the end part of deal or no deal). Even the 1990 version however is ambiguous when it comes to puzzles. It just says they open a door which has a goat. The solution originally posted explicitly assumes it to be the case, which is fine.