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Sometimes they can be. A lot of times people without IFR enter clouds because situation is worsening - so after a few minutes, cloud/fog might reach ground, or
by NikolaNovak 3y ago
Sometimes they can be. A lot of times people without IFR enter clouds because situation is worsening - so after a few minutes, cloud/fog might reach ground, or you might fly to a place where clouds are lower.
Other times, you get your airplane in a situation / position where, when you do exit a cloud, you don't have enough altitude to correct it. Some airplanes have various types of spins you can enter that you cannot exit or cannot exit quickly. As well, people can remain very disoriented when they exit the cloud if they are in a spin, or they can panic and provide incorrect control input.
Think about cars - people can accidentally induce understeer or oversteer when they encounter unexpected lose surface, and unless they've had training and practice, they frequently will do the wrong thing even when they're aware of situation and problem. Similarly, people can exit the clouds in a stall or spin, and due to panic or incorrect thinking or inexperience or even lack of oxygen, they can continue producing incorrect input. For example, if you're in a simple stall and losing altitude - the absolutely correct thing to do is to point your stick/airplane DOWN, gain speed, and then regain control. But it takes practice and conviction to do that when you're close to ground and falling. Spin recovery can be more intricate (depending on the airplane), with stick, rudder, and throttle inputs that your primitive brain may not register are conducive to immediate goal of "don't hit ground". It's one thing to practice things 4,000ft in the air on a clear day with instructor with you; and another when you're 600 ft from the ground, your airplane is spinning, you can barely ascertain which direction it's spinning, the sound is overwhelming, passengers are screaming, and you're panicking :<
Even extremely qualified airline pilots have numerous times provided textbook incorrect control input in critical situations :(
- bondarchuk 3y agoEven with all these explanations I'm still totally unclear on how flying in a cloud gets you an 86% fatality rate. It's difficult and counterintuitive, things can go wrong with instruments etc.., but what exactly makes a crash a near-certainty in this situation?
- NikolaNovak 3y agoHmm, if you've already read the previous and especially parallel posts in this thread, I'm not sure what other examples or analogies to use, so somebody else would need to try another tack. Basically - people's sense of direction actively lies to them, extremely strongly, so they do the wrong thing, and they crash the airplane, virtually without fail. As per my previous analogy - people without explicit driving instructions and practice (you must build actual reflexes, not just theoretical knowledge!), will overwhelmingly do the wrong thing when they understeer or oversteer a car - a machine they may operate daily otherwise and still have full sensory inputs. Flying in clouds / entering a spin is exponentially more complex and counterintuitive and punishing :< If that still feels incredibly unlikely, and please take this in the kindest possible way as an illustration and not personal :), that's exactly what kills people! The profound and pervasive unawareness of how dangerous the situation is, and just how much your body senses will lie to you and how much following them will kill you. (fwiw, note it's not "sum total of all people entering the clouds results in 86% fatality rate", of course - airlines go through clouds hundreds if not thousands of times around the world daily! But for untrained people to enter a cloud, especially inadvertently / unplanned, IS deadly)