This is the first thing to get, the second is that Monty won't pick the car. If you do not understand these two, then you will say 1/2. I've heard the analogy

This is the first thing to get, the second is that Monty won't pick the car. If you do not understand these two, then you will say 1/2. I've heard the analogy with 1 000 doors and opening 998 of them before but that doesn't explain anything at all. If you think that makes you understand then you're mistaken; that made you understand something else. The key is that you have 1/3 of being right, 2/3 of being wrong. So in 2/3 of the cases, you will be offered to pick the car. So 2/3 switching gives you the car and 1/3 loses you the car. So always switch, it has better odds.