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I like the variant: You pick a door. An earthquake hits and one door opens that is a goat. The earthquake of course had know knowledge of that it's just what ha
by patrickthebold 3y ago
I like the variant:
You pick a door. An earthquake hits and one door opens that is a goat. The earthquake of course had know knowledge of that it's just what happened.
Should you switch?
I really thought I understood the problem until I got that variant wrong.
There's a good video with a rant about the problem I will link to it when I find it.
- lisper 3y agoYep, this is the key. The host knows where the prize is, and the rules of the game force him to use and reveal some of that knowledge when he chooses the door to open.
- slavik81 3y agoThat rule is fundamentally what changes the odds, but it's worth noting that Monty only revealing goats was not one of the rules of the actual Monty Hall gameshow, nor was it explicitly stated in the original framing of this problem (though arguably it was implied). The somewhat ambiguous description of the problem in the newspaper column that popularized it may have contributed to the confusion.
- lisper 3y agoYes, definitely. However, it's a pretty reasonable inference, because Monty would not open a door without being sure that it would not contain the prize because that would just destroy the dramatic tension. "Oops, sorry, guess you lost. Didn't see that coming. Better luck next time."
- kgwgk 3y ago> Should you switch? Why not? There is no harm in doing so if the probabilities are the same anyway...