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If the host picked randomly then there would be a 1/6 chance that the show would end rather anticlimactically and you would be indifferent in switching. Now thi

If the host picked randomly then there would be a 1/6 chance that the show would end rather anticlimactically and you would be indifferent in switching. Now this 1/6 becomes your edge turning your 1/3 to 1/2 after the goat is revealed. EDIT: 1/3 not 1/6

IanCal 3y ago
1/3 not 1/6. There are six outcomes of you picking a door and the host opening one of the remaining doors. In two of them you pick a goat the first time and then the host reveals the car.
- jdechko 3y ago
  I wonder if a decision tree would help more people since it’s possible to visualize every possible outcome of every possible game.
  - IanCal 3y ago
    That's the thing that makes it click for me, and why there's a difference if the host is random or not.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]