4 ms·

If PRC is tumbling, everyone else is collapsing. PRC demographics, as in actual ability to coordinate and exploit divident is SIGNIFICANTLY better than India's

If PRC is tumbling, everyone else is collapsing. PRC demographics, as in actual ability to coordinate and exploit divident is SIGNIFICANTLY better than India's whose trending toward's PRC demographers worst nightmare. 100s of millions of undereducated and underemployed youths while their brightest get brain drained to advanced economies. PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years. It's only after mid century demographics / risk of Japanification is an issue. PRC demographic collapists (i.e. Zeihan tards) thinks PRC is going to tumble sharply from where she is now and soon, but really she's going to stagnate or fall slowly from a significantly higher position decades from now.

alephnerd 3y ago
> PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years This is a very questionable statement. "China’s overall education rate is one of the lowest in the middle-income world ... Comparing China’s human capital with that of other countries, it is not only systemically lower than South Korea, Ireland, and other “graduates” out of middle-income status, it is also lower than virtually all other middle-income countries." [0] This does not mean economic collapse or demise, but there is a very real human capital issue at a macro-level. That said, policymakers in the PRC know this and have been working with SIEPR at Stanford for over a decade on rectifying this at a policymaking level, but there are some very real systemic issues that mean China c. 2023 cannot be compared with countries at a similar levels of development such as Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, etc. [0] - https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/tracking-chinas-economic-path https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/trackin...
- dirtyid 3y ago
  Yes, it's questionable if the context is per capita. But with PRC pop denominator effect, it's fine/prudent to also recognize absolute effects, the trend of PRC talent generation that bias towards skilled individuals means PRC will accumulate historically unprecedented pool of skilled talent over next 20 years since they have pipeline of 10-14m new birth for past 26 years for accessible future tertiary talent. Unless CCP completely cracks down on educating their population, with rate of current tertiary excess capacity and even if bodies get redirected into skilled vocational training, the country is trending towards ~100m new skilled over next few decades. Which assuming PRC has ability to retain and coordinate (and so far they've done reasonable job), that cohort is very much potentially the best/greatest pool of (TBF potential) high skilled demographics divident humanity has ever assembled in a generation period. Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities. Hence PRC human capita can be per capita lower but also in aggregate better than virtually all other countries, including potentially US + immigration. Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors, while PRC with poor per capita education metrics is acknowledged as more than enough to be, because for some purposes, the more useful comparison is absolute vs relative. E: And in agreement, yes there will be macro level issues to low per capita performance - it's not going to be pretty but it's not going to be collapse either. A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors Because all those countries largely aligned with the liberal international order and didn't try to antagonize their neighbors. A notable exception to your list is Russia, a fellow upper middle income country that in 2010-2014 was on the precipice of becoming a developed country (HDI above 0.800 AND GDP per Capita above $12,000/yr c. 2010-13) Russia began playing a belligerent role in Georgia/Abkhazia/Ossetia (2008-Present), Ukraine (2014-present), Syria (2015-present), and the CAR (2018-president) and we burnt multiple cycles worrying about them. When I was on the Hill, we were honestly neutral/indifferent about China until you guys hacked our companies (Google, Lockheed Martin) and our government (OPM Hack in 2015, CIA in 2012-13). This is just the US. The leadership in post-2011 China has unnecessarily antagonized Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, India, Australia, and Vietnam despite all those countries preferring to the neutral in any US-PRC confrontation. All the hawkish comments on here hoping for the collapse of the PRC are disgusting and do not reflect what those of us in a decisionmaking capacity or adjacent to those think. Yet unbridled nationalism and hubris by commentators on both sides is impacting the ability to get shit done. > Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities India in 2023 is a country with developmental indicators, institutions, and infrastructure largely on par with the PRC in the 2000-2003 period. A lot of the same problems you mentioned about India are the exact same problems China faced and overcame, and the same playbook is being applied there. In fact, the same kind of commentary you are bristling too is the exact same commentary people used to give China during the exact same time period, and it's kind of funny seeing Chinese commentators reusing the same comments we Americans made about China in the 2000-2015 period on India. > A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline This is a still an open question. No country has ever transitioned from a developing country to an advanced economy with as crippling a Human Capital Handicap as the PRC today. The last large upper middle income countries that had a similar handicap were Mexico, Brazil, Türkiye, and Malaysia. None of these countries are shitholes, but when they reached a similar pivot as China did today in the late 90s/early 2000s, they had the need to resort to extensive social and economic reforms. While Malaysia has succeeded at that, this hasn't been as successful in Brazil, Türkiye, and Mexico. If I was a gambling man, I'd lean towards assuming this transition will be a protracted affair. Not "institutions collapse" bad but 7-10 years of malaise, because building human capital takes time and effort.

alephnerd 3y ago

> PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years This is a very questionable statement. "China’s overall education rate is one of the lowest in the middle-income world ... Comparing China’s human capital with that of other countries, it is not only systemically lower than South Korea, Ireland, and other “graduates” out of middle-income status, it is also lower than virtually all other middle-income countries." [0] This does not mean economic collapse or demise, but there is a very real human capital issue at a macro-level. That said, policymakers in the PRC know this and have been working with SIEPR at Stanford for over a decade on rectifying this at a policymaking level, but there are some very real systemic issues that mean China c. 2023 cannot be compared with countries at a similar levels of development such as Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, etc. [0] - https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/tracking-chinas-economic-path https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/trackin...

dirtyid 3y ago
Yes, it's questionable if the context is per capita. But with PRC pop denominator effect, it's fine/prudent to also recognize absolute effects, the trend of PRC talent generation that bias towards skilled individuals means PRC will accumulate historically unprecedented pool of skilled talent over next 20 years since they have pipeline of 10-14m new birth for past 26 years for accessible future tertiary talent. Unless CCP completely cracks down on educating their population, with rate of current tertiary excess capacity and even if bodies get redirected into skilled vocational training, the country is trending towards ~100m new skilled over next few decades. Which assuming PRC has ability to retain and coordinate (and so far they've done reasonable job), that cohort is very much potentially the best/greatest pool of (TBF potential) high skilled demographics divident humanity has ever assembled in a generation period. Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities. Hence PRC human capita can be per capita lower but also in aggregate better than virtually all other countries, including potentially US + immigration. Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors, while PRC with poor per capita education metrics is acknowledged as more than enough to be, because for some purposes, the more useful comparison is absolute vs relative. E: And in agreement, yes there will be macro level issues to low per capita performance - it's not going to be pretty but it's not going to be collapse either. A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors Because all those countries largely aligned with the liberal international order and didn't try to antagonize their neighbors. A notable exception to your list is Russia, a fellow upper middle income country that in 2010-2014 was on the precipice of becoming a developed country (HDI above 0.800 AND GDP per Capita above $12,000/yr c. 2010-13) Russia began playing a belligerent role in Georgia/Abkhazia/Ossetia (2008-Present), Ukraine (2014-present), Syria (2015-present), and the CAR (2018-president) and we burnt multiple cycles worrying about them. When I was on the Hill, we were honestly neutral/indifferent about China until you guys hacked our companies (Google, Lockheed Martin) and our government (OPM Hack in 2015, CIA in 2012-13). This is just the US. The leadership in post-2011 China has unnecessarily antagonized Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, India, Australia, and Vietnam despite all those countries preferring to the neutral in any US-PRC confrontation. All the hawkish comments on here hoping for the collapse of the PRC are disgusting and do not reflect what those of us in a decisionmaking capacity or adjacent to those think. Yet unbridled nationalism and hubris by commentators on both sides is impacting the ability to get shit done. > Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities India in 2023 is a country with developmental indicators, institutions, and infrastructure largely on par with the PRC in the 2000-2003 period. A lot of the same problems you mentioned about India are the exact same problems China faced and overcame, and the same playbook is being applied there. In fact, the same kind of commentary you are bristling too is the exact same commentary people used to give China during the exact same time period, and it's kind of funny seeing Chinese commentators reusing the same comments we Americans made about China in the 2000-2015 period on India. > A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline This is a still an open question. No country has ever transitioned from a developing country to an advanced economy with as crippling a Human Capital Handicap as the PRC today. The last large upper middle income countries that had a similar handicap were Mexico, Brazil, Türkiye, and Malaysia. None of these countries are shitholes, but when they reached a similar pivot as China did today in the late 90s/early 2000s, they had the need to resort to extensive social and economic reforms. While Malaysia has succeeded at that, this hasn't been as successful in Brazil, Türkiye, and Mexico. If I was a gambling man, I'd lean towards assuming this transition will be a protracted affair. Not "institutions collapse" bad but 7-10 years of malaise, because building human capital takes time and effort.