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I attended a talk recently by Justin Yifu Lin, the current chief economist of the World Bank. On the basis of a comparison of China's current Purchasing Power

I attended a talk recently by Justin Yifu Lin, the current chief economist of the World Bank. On the basis of a comparison of China's current Purchasing Power Parity to that of earlier Asian tigers, he argued that China's economy is likely to grow at a rate of 8% p.a. for the next two decades. He also argued that Africa will move into the cheap manufacturing jobs that are now becoming more expensive in the China. Not sure how that squares with his projected growth for the Chinese economy; presumably they will grow in the "knowledge economies." They are certainly trying to... If that's the case, knowledge workers in the West (which includes most readers of HN) may be in for some serious economic disruption.

mahyarm 15y ago
From what I know, rent in Beijing is very expensive, on par with the bay area or worse and wages are not dramatically lower for anybody who's in china and is somewhat competent. It's not the vast price difference gulf between a US factory worker and the peanuts that a chinese factory worker gets. What will happen after the chinese property bubble bursts and to everyones rent could change things although.
bane 15y ago
"He also argued that Africa will move into the cheap manufacturing jobs that are now becoming more expensive in the China." To play a counterpoint, that will require various African nations to put into effect a strong strategy for an export driven economy. While "Africa" has a billion or so people, it's not a monolithic nation-state. Some countries with better governance may go that route, others may not, and others may end up with a continuous string of dictatorial regimes and corrupt governments and accomplish nothing. In 20 years, there may still be more poor Chinese peasants looking for cheap factory work than available Africans looking for comparable factory work in countries that have switched to an appropriate economic model. It's also not entirely clear that the Asian export-driven model will work elsewhere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export-oriented_industrialization http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export-oriented_industrializati...

mahyarm 15y ago

From what I know, rent in Beijing is very expensive, on par with the bay area or worse and wages are not dramatically lower for anybody who's in china and is somewhat competent. It's not the vast price difference gulf between a US factory worker and the peanuts that a chinese factory worker gets. What will happen after the chinese property bubble bursts and to everyones rent could change things although.

bane 15y ago

"He also argued that Africa will move into the cheap manufacturing jobs that are now becoming more expensive in the China." To play a counterpoint, that will require various African nations to put into effect a strong strategy for an export driven economy. While "Africa" has a billion or so people, it's not a monolithic nation-state. Some countries with better governance may go that route, others may not, and others may end up with a continuous string of dictatorial regimes and corrupt governments and accomplish nothing. In 20 years, there may still be more poor Chinese peasants looking for cheap factory work than available Africans looking for comparable factory work in countries that have switched to an appropriate economic model. It's also not entirely clear that the Asian export-driven model will work elsewhere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export-oriented_industrialization http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export-oriented_industrializati...