> "A reasonable model for the “blowup factor” (actual time divided by estimated time) would be something like a log-normal distribution. Research has shown a p

> "A reasonable model for the “blowup factor” (actual time divided by estimated time) would be something like a log-normal distribution. Research has shown a power-law distribution to be a better fit. See "The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering a Power-Law Distribution" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4204819 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4204819