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That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and

by kkzz99 3y ago

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Looking at Chinese industries, they are on the path of full spectrum domination, from aerospace, chip development, ai, mechanical manufacturing, high tech agriculture, research and so on. Look at the number of research fields where China is now #1. Look at the industries China is dominating.

cscurmudgeon 3y ago
> China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...
- kkzz99 3y ago
  > Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.
  - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
    > They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. > But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. You can say the same about US. > There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate. It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too.
    - kkzz99 3y ago
      > Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. Huh? I don't understand what you mean by that. Different development strategies can result in different growth rates. Some will just take longer to ramp up but will pay off in the long term. > You can say the same about US. All major developed economies try to focus on high quality growth. The question is who is able to accomplish their goals faster/better. Considering the flexibility, strategic planning and political will, my bet in on China. > It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too. That is exactly why they are doing dual circulation and focusing on Latam, Asia and a Africa.
deleted 3y ago
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rr808 3y ago
This guy Zeihan is pretty US centric, but is worth listening to. https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- kkzz99 3y ago
  I know Peter Zeihan. He focuses mainly on energy and demographics. His predictions have a shoddy record. He is your typical "China will collapse any day now" think-tanker. In my opinion his analyses are simple and unscientific. He presents easy to digest ideas in an understandable way, he is also a great speaker. But if you actually deep dive into his narrative and the actual data, you will soon discover that he is mostly wrong or dramatically exaggerating.
  - rr808 3y ago
    Yeah he's just one voice though. Expats are leaving, Global companies are pulling out, the property market is finally crashing, the world is finding other suppliers. Its over.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Zeihan's a quack. He's PoliSci's Michio Kaku.

by kkzz99 3y ago

cscurmudgeon 3y ago

> China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...

kkzz99 3y ago
> Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago
  > They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. > But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. You can say the same about US. > There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate. It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too.
  - kkzz99 3y ago
    > Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. Huh? I don't understand what you mean by that. Different development strategies can result in different growth rates. Some will just take longer to ramp up but will pay off in the long term. > You can say the same about US. All major developed economies try to focus on high quality growth. The question is who is able to accomplish their goals faster/better. Considering the flexibility, strategic planning and political will, my bet in on China. > It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too. That is exactly why they are doing dual circulation and focusing on Latam, Asia and a Africa.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

rr808 3y ago

This guy Zeihan is pretty US centric, but is worth listening to. https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
kkzz99 3y ago
I know Peter Zeihan. He focuses mainly on energy and demographics. His predictions have a shoddy record. He is your typical "China will collapse any day now" think-tanker. In my opinion his analyses are simple and unscientific. He presents easy to digest ideas in an understandable way, he is also a great speaker. But if you actually deep dive into his narrative and the actual data, you will soon discover that he is mostly wrong or dramatically exaggerating.
- rr808 3y ago
  Yeah he's just one voice though. Expats are leaving, Global companies are pulling out, the property market is finally crashing, the world is finding other suppliers. Its over.
alephnerd 3y ago
Zeihan's a quack. He's PoliSci's Michio Kaku.