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People used to say that about China too, now China has started its tumble out of the sky. At least India has better demographics.

by rr808 3y ago

kaycey2022 3y ago
You think demographics are frozen? India will be in China’s position in about 40 years
kkzz99 3y ago
That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Looking at Chinese industries, they are on the path of full spectrum domination, from aerospace, chip development, ai, mechanical manufacturing, high tech agriculture, research and so on. Look at the number of research fields where China is now #1. Look at the industries China is dominating.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago
  > China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...
  - kkzz99 3y ago
    > Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.
    - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
      > They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. > But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. You can say the same about US. > There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate. It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too.
      - kkzz99 3y ago
        > Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. Huh? I don't understand what you mean by that. Different development strategies can result in different growth rates. Some will just take longer to ramp up but will pay off in the long term. > You can say the same about US. All major developed economies try to focus on high quality growth. The question is who is able to accomplish their goals faster/better. Considering the flexibility, strategic planning and political will, my bet in on China. > It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too. That is exactly why they are doing dual circulation and focusing on Latam, Asia and a Africa.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- rr808 3y ago
  This guy Zeihan is pretty US centric, but is worth listening to. https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - kkzz99 3y ago
    I know Peter Zeihan. He focuses mainly on energy and demographics. His predictions have a shoddy record. He is your typical "China will collapse any day now" think-tanker. In my opinion his analyses are simple and unscientific. He presents easy to digest ideas in an understandable way, he is also a great speaker. But if you actually deep dive into his narrative and the actual data, you will soon discover that he is mostly wrong or dramatically exaggerating.
    - rr808 3y ago
      Yeah he's just one voice though. Expats are leaving, Global companies are pulling out, the property market is finally crashing, the world is finding other suppliers. Its over.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Zeihan's a quack. He's PoliSci's Michio Kaku.
sremani 3y ago
Middle income trap is real. You do not grow like your teens and 20s in your 40s and 50s. Economies become big and complex, the character of the system changes and if the underlying demographics do not fit the growth model it is in danger. Republic of Korea, Japan got rich before they got old. China got old before it got rich. India disappoints both its optimists and pessimists. It is a middling country with growth spurts here and there, which is admirable in its own way.
- soligern 3y ago
  I don’t know if you can call 7-9% growth for the last ~20 years (with the exception of 2020 during covid) spurts. It’s a consistently fast growing economy, at massive scale, that has maintained steam for more than two decades and doesn’t look like it’s slowing down.
  - sremani 3y ago
    are you sure the floor of India's growth rate from 2002 is 7% I am looking at the following data and can see multiple 3s and 5s. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/gdp-growth-r...
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > Middle income trap is real. You do not grow like your teens and 20s in your 40s and 50s. Economies become big and complex Very true. Economic growth is going to be rough for Mainland China for the next several years, but that doesn't preclude becoming a developed country eventually. China today in 2023 is at roughly the same spot as Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea were in the 1980s. All 3 countries became developed, but at different paces. For example, Malaysia only hit the developed country precipice in 2021 (0.8 HDI), Taiwan in the 1990s, and South Korea in 2000. South Korea and Taiwan didn't become Advanced Economies until the late 2000s/early 2010s. > India disappoints both its optimists and pessimists. It is a middling country with growth spurts here and there Because India is incorrectly being compared with China. India is 15-20 years behind China because China opened their markets in 1973-1978, while India didn't conduct similar market reforms until 1992-1996. When factoring that 15-20 year lag, comparisons start making sense [1] [1] - https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2020/06/05/2003d_suzuki_e_1.pdf https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/__icsFiles/afi...
dirtyid 3y ago
If PRC is tumbling, everyone else is collapsing. PRC demographics, as in actual ability to coordinate and exploit divident is SIGNIFICANTLY better than India's whose trending toward's PRC demographers worst nightmare. 100s of millions of undereducated and underemployed youths while their brightest get brain drained to advanced economies. PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years. It's only after mid century demographics / risk of Japanification is an issue. PRC demographic collapists (i.e. Zeihan tards) thinks PRC is going to tumble sharply from where she is now and soon, but really she's going to stagnate or fall slowly from a significantly higher position decades from now.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years This is a very questionable statement. "China’s overall education rate is one of the lowest in the middle-income world ... Comparing China’s human capital with that of other countries, it is not only systemically lower than South Korea, Ireland, and other “graduates” out of middle-income status, it is also lower than virtually all other middle-income countries." [0] This does not mean economic collapse or demise, but there is a very real human capital issue at a macro-level. That said, policymakers in the PRC know this and have been working with SIEPR at Stanford for over a decade on rectifying this at a policymaking level, but there are some very real systemic issues that mean China c. 2023 cannot be compared with countries at a similar levels of development such as Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, etc. [0] - https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/tracking-chinas-economic-path https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/trackin...
  - dirtyid 3y ago
    Yes, it's questionable if the context is per capita. But with PRC pop denominator effect, it's fine/prudent to also recognize absolute effects, the trend of PRC talent generation that bias towards skilled individuals means PRC will accumulate historically unprecedented pool of skilled talent over next 20 years since they have pipeline of 10-14m new birth for past 26 years for accessible future tertiary talent. Unless CCP completely cracks down on educating their population, with rate of current tertiary excess capacity and even if bodies get redirected into skilled vocational training, the country is trending towards ~100m new skilled over next few decades. Which assuming PRC has ability to retain and coordinate (and so far they've done reasonable job), that cohort is very much potentially the best/greatest pool of (TBF potential) high skilled demographics divident humanity has ever assembled in a generation period. Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities. Hence PRC human capita can be per capita lower but also in aggregate better than virtually all other countries, including potentially US + immigration. Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors, while PRC with poor per capita education metrics is acknowledged as more than enough to be, because for some purposes, the more useful comparison is absolute vs relative. E: And in agreement, yes there will be macro level issues to low per capita performance - it's not going to be pretty but it's not going to be collapse either. A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline.

People used to say that about China too, now China has started its tumble out of the sky. At least India has better demographics.

by rr808 3y ago

People used to say that about China too, now China has started its tumble out of the sky. At least India has better demographics.

kaycey2022 3y ago

You think demographics are frozen? India will be in China’s position in about 40 years

kkzz99 3y ago

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Looking at Chinese industries, they are on the path of full spectrum domination, from aerospace, chip development, ai, mechanical manufacturing, high tech agriculture, research and so on. Look at the number of research fields where China is now #1. Look at the industries China is dominating.

cscurmudgeon 3y ago
> China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...
- kkzz99 3y ago
  > Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.
  - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
    > They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. > But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. You can say the same about US. > There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate. It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too.
    - kkzz99 3y ago
      > Mathematically there can be only rate of growth at any point in time. Huh? I don't understand what you mean by that. Different development strategies can result in different growth rates. Some will just take longer to ramp up but will pay off in the long term. > You can say the same about US. All major developed economies try to focus on high quality growth. The question is who is able to accomplish their goals faster/better. Considering the flexibility, strategic planning and political will, my bet in on China. > It can go this or that way. With access to Western tech cut off, rate of pilfering from the West will also decrease, so that needs to be factored in too. That is exactly why they are doing dual circulation and focusing on Latam, Asia and a Africa.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
rr808 3y ago
This guy Zeihan is pretty US centric, but is worth listening to. https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so https://youtu.be/ISk9ZpKM9so
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- kkzz99 3y ago
  I know Peter Zeihan. He focuses mainly on energy and demographics. His predictions have a shoddy record. He is your typical "China will collapse any day now" think-tanker. In my opinion his analyses are simple and unscientific. He presents easy to digest ideas in an understandable way, he is also a great speaker. But if you actually deep dive into his narrative and the actual data, you will soon discover that he is mostly wrong or dramatically exaggerating.
  - rr808 3y ago
    Yeah he's just one voice though. Expats are leaving, Global companies are pulling out, the property market is finally crashing, the world is finding other suppliers. Its over.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Zeihan's a quack. He's PoliSci's Michio Kaku.

sremani 3y ago

Middle income trap is real. You do not grow like your teens and 20s in your 40s and 50s. Economies become big and complex, the character of the system changes and if the underlying demographics do not fit the growth model it is in danger. Republic of Korea, Japan got rich before they got old. China got old before it got rich. India disappoints both its optimists and pessimists. It is a middling country with growth spurts here and there, which is admirable in its own way.

soligern 3y ago
I don’t know if you can call 7-9% growth for the last ~20 years (with the exception of 2020 during covid) spurts. It’s a consistently fast growing economy, at massive scale, that has maintained steam for more than two decades and doesn’t look like it’s slowing down.
- sremani 3y ago
  are you sure the floor of India's growth rate from 2002 is 7% I am looking at the following data and can see multiple 3s and 5s. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/gdp-growth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/gdp-growth-r...
alephnerd 3y ago
> Middle income trap is real. You do not grow like your teens and 20s in your 40s and 50s. Economies become big and complex Very true. Economic growth is going to be rough for Mainland China for the next several years, but that doesn't preclude becoming a developed country eventually. China today in 2023 is at roughly the same spot as Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea were in the 1980s. All 3 countries became developed, but at different paces. For example, Malaysia only hit the developed country precipice in 2021 (0.8 HDI), Taiwan in the 1990s, and South Korea in 2000. South Korea and Taiwan didn't become Advanced Economies until the late 2000s/early 2010s. > India disappoints both its optimists and pessimists. It is a middling country with growth spurts here and there Because India is incorrectly being compared with China. India is 15-20 years behind China because China opened their markets in 1973-1978, while India didn't conduct similar market reforms until 1992-1996. When factoring that 15-20 year lag, comparisons start making sense [1] [1] - https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2020/06/05/2003d_suzuki_e_1.pdf https://www.mitsui.com/mgssi/en/report/detail/__icsFiles/afi...

dirtyid 3y ago

If PRC is tumbling, everyone else is collapsing. PRC demographics, as in actual ability to coordinate and exploit divident is SIGNIFICANTLY better than India's whose trending toward's PRC demographers worst nightmare. 100s of millions of undereducated and underemployed youths while their brightest get brain drained to advanced economies. PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years. It's only after mid century demographics / risk of Japanification is an issue. PRC demographic collapists (i.e. Zeihan tards) thinks PRC is going to tumble sharply from where she is now and soon, but really she's going to stagnate or fall slowly from a significantly higher position decades from now.

alephnerd 3y ago
> PRC has the best high skilled demographics in recorded history in the next 30 years This is a very questionable statement. "China’s overall education rate is one of the lowest in the middle-income world ... Comparing China’s human capital with that of other countries, it is not only systemically lower than South Korea, Ireland, and other “graduates” out of middle-income status, it is also lower than virtually all other middle-income countries." [0] This does not mean economic collapse or demise, but there is a very real human capital issue at a macro-level. That said, policymakers in the PRC know this and have been working with SIEPR at Stanford for over a decade on rectifying this at a policymaking level, but there are some very real systemic issues that mean China c. 2023 cannot be compared with countries at a similar levels of development such as Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, etc. [0] - https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/tracking-chinas-economic-path https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/trackin...
- dirtyid 3y ago
  Yes, it's questionable if the context is per capita. But with PRC pop denominator effect, it's fine/prudent to also recognize absolute effects, the trend of PRC talent generation that bias towards skilled individuals means PRC will accumulate historically unprecedented pool of skilled talent over next 20 years since they have pipeline of 10-14m new birth for past 26 years for accessible future tertiary talent. Unless CCP completely cracks down on educating their population, with rate of current tertiary excess capacity and even if bodies get redirected into skilled vocational training, the country is trending towards ~100m new skilled over next few decades. Which assuming PRC has ability to retain and coordinate (and so far they've done reasonable job), that cohort is very much potentially the best/greatest pool of (TBF potential) high skilled demographics divident humanity has ever assembled in a generation period. Like there simply isn't any time period in the past where one country had population or institutions to do so, nor are any countries likely to match including US who would to increase immigration to politically unfeasible levels, or (IMO) India even with 1.6B pop unless they manage to not only stop crippling brain drain but also coordinate talent domestically on par with PRC capabilities. Hence PRC human capita can be per capita lower but also in aggregate better than virtually all other countries, including potentially US + immigration. Hence why c 2023 no one seriously thinks Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia are currently or even potential future US competitors, while PRC with poor per capita education metrics is acknowledged as more than enough to be, because for some purposes, the more useful comparison is absolute vs relative. E: And in agreement, yes there will be macro level issues to low per capita performance - it's not going to be pretty but it's not going to be collapse either. A country can simulatenously improve/lead at top while bottom languish/decline.