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Within 50 years, India will pass the United States to become the second largest economy: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/india-to-become-worlds-second-largest-

Within 50 years, India will pass the United States to become the second largest economy: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/india-to-become-worlds-second-largest-economy-by-2075-goldman-sachs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/india-to-become-worlds-secon...

paxys 3y ago
Yet will continue to be among the worst in the world in all per capita metrics. Is having a large economy really that meaningful when the benefits are enjoyed by the top 0.1% and not able to trickle down?
- soligern 3y ago
  That’s essentially impossible. The birth rate in India is below 2 at this point so the population will drop. That combined with a larger economy means the per capita metrics will improve.
enkid 3y ago
Economic projections like this are notoriously bad. For example, two editions of the same text book used the exact same graph showing the Soviet Union would pass the US is about 20 years... Despite the editions being twenty years apart. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/soviet-growth-american-textbooks.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/so...
qazpot 3y ago
50 Years is too long a time period to make any kind of useful prediction.
cscurmudgeon 3y ago
I am a believer in India but this is a ridiculous horizon. Looks like some intern at GS found out FBProphet.
screye 3y ago
Sometimes you're Argentina, sometimes you are Spain. [1] Same people, same starting point, different outcomes. [1] https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/argentina/spain?sector=GDP+per+capita+%28Dollars%29&sc=XE34#tbl https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/argentina/spain... Have to wait and see. Only time will tell.
- kaycey2022 3y ago
  Even if India reaches Argentina’s per capita GDP in today’s terms, it will be a massive, world changing development.
- weekendvampire 3y ago
  This is fascinating. Any particular reasons for the disparity?
  - sremani 3y ago
    Spain benefits from being part of EU, Argentina does not have a "support system" like that and sanctified practice of bankruptcy. In the long run, Argentina will beat Spain but that requires them getting their shit together, which is a big if.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - screye 3y ago
    There is a joke in economics. > Simon Kuznets, the winner of the 1971 Nobel Prize in Economics, famously stated there were four types of economies in the world: developed, undeveloped, Japan and Argentina
  - mardifoufs 3y ago
    Mostly the EU. Almost every other reason is at best rationalization in comparison. The same goes for Poland. though people from those countries don't necessarily like to admit that the reason they are richer than their peers (in this case, Argentina) is mostly due to geographical luck. But Argentina also has a peculiar, almost hard to believe tendency to shoot itself in the foot economically
rr808 3y ago
People used to say that about China too, now China has started its tumble out of the sky. At least India has better demographics.
- kaycey2022 3y ago
  You think demographics are frozen? India will be in China’s position in about 40 years
- kkzz99 3y ago
  That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Looking at Chinese industries, they are on the path of full spectrum domination, from aerospace, chip development, ai, mechanical manufacturing, high tech agriculture, research and so on. Look at the number of research fields where China is now #1. Look at the industries China is dominating.
  - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
    > China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...
    - kkzz99 3y ago
      > Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.
otikik 3y ago
According to Goldman Sachs, which sometimes fumbles their bold predictions: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/24/goldman-sachs-worst-predictions-of-2014.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/24/goldman-sa...
sremani 3y ago
It is a projection based on a model. People should stop talking as if it is fiat accompli.
edgyquant 3y ago
Sure it will. Just like China would surpass the US by 2018 and then it didn’t happen. These only apply if the US does nothing and let’s these countries do so.

paxys 3y ago

Yet will continue to be among the worst in the world in all per capita metrics. Is having a large economy really that meaningful when the benefits are enjoyed by the top 0.1% and not able to trickle down?

soligern 3y ago
That’s essentially impossible. The birth rate in India is below 2 at this point so the population will drop. That combined with a larger economy means the per capita metrics will improve.

enkid 3y ago

Economic projections like this are notoriously bad. For example, two editions of the same text book used the exact same graph showing the Soviet Union would pass the US is about 20 years... Despite the editions being twenty years apart. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/soviet-growth-american-textbooks.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/01/so...

qazpot 3y ago

50 Years is too long a time period to make any kind of useful prediction.

cscurmudgeon 3y ago

I am a believer in India but this is a ridiculous horizon. Looks like some intern at GS found out FBProphet.

screye 3y ago

Sometimes you're Argentina, sometimes you are Spain. [1] Same people, same starting point, different outcomes. [1] https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/argentina/spain?sector=GDP+per+capita+%28Dollars%29&sc=XE34#tbl https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/argentina/spain... Have to wait and see. Only time will tell.

kaycey2022 3y ago
Even if India reaches Argentina’s per capita GDP in today’s terms, it will be a massive, world changing development.
weekendvampire 3y ago
This is fascinating. Any particular reasons for the disparity?
- sremani 3y ago
  Spain benefits from being part of EU, Argentina does not have a "support system" like that and sanctified practice of bankruptcy. In the long run, Argentina will beat Spain but that requires them getting their shit together, which is a big if.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- screye 3y ago
  There is a joke in economics. > Simon Kuznets, the winner of the 1971 Nobel Prize in Economics, famously stated there were four types of economies in the world: developed, undeveloped, Japan and Argentina
- mardifoufs 3y ago
  Mostly the EU. Almost every other reason is at best rationalization in comparison. The same goes for Poland. though people from those countries don't necessarily like to admit that the reason they are richer than their peers (in this case, Argentina) is mostly due to geographical luck. But Argentina also has a peculiar, almost hard to believe tendency to shoot itself in the foot economically

rr808 3y ago

People used to say that about China too, now China has started its tumble out of the sky. At least India has better demographics.

kaycey2022 3y ago
You think demographics are frozen? India will be in China’s position in about 40 years
kkzz99 3y ago
That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Looking at Chinese industries, they are on the path of full spectrum domination, from aerospace, chip development, ai, mechanical manufacturing, high tech agriculture, research and so on. Look at the number of research fields where China is now #1. Look at the industries China is dominating.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago
  > China's rise will accelerate even further. Growth rate is sinking because they switched to high quality development and dual circulation, which doesn't pump up the numbers as much as low quality development. Don't you think those two are contradictory? If what you say is the case then why is China struggling to retaliate in the chip war? https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-against-us-chip-controls-technology-war/ https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/china-struggles-retaliate-aga...
  - kkzz99 3y ago
    > Don't you think those two are contradictory. No, because high quality development focuses on innovation, sustainability and green development instead of raw growth via low quality development (construction, low-end manufacturing etc.) They could ramp up low quality development faster and thus achieving higher growth rates in the short term. But they are focusing on long term strategic goals. China just retaliated by issuing export restrictions for some rare earths, which is an indicator that they are rapidly approaching self sufficiency in many aspects. There are still some major hurdles(EUV alternatives, high end AI accelerators, software stack) but if the current speed of development is any indication, then these too will be overcome and probably much faster than many anticipate.

otikik 3y ago

According to Goldman Sachs, which sometimes fumbles their bold predictions: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/24/goldman-sachs-worst-predictions-of-2014.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/24/goldman-sa...

sremani 3y ago

It is a projection based on a model. People should stop talking as if it is fiat accompli.

edgyquant 3y ago

Sure it will. Just like China would surpass the US by 2018 and then it didn’t happen. These only apply if the US does nothing and let’s these countries do so.