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I don't think I am, am I? Sorry if I am missing your point. I am just saying you want to know whether they're actually irrational or just pretending (which is o

I don't think I am, am I? Sorry if I am missing your point. I am just saying you want to know whether they're actually irrational or just pretending (which is often rational). And when Putin says "X is a red line" you want to KNOW whether he means it or not. And it's likely a good thing for him to know the same about Biden. Good in this context is defined as avoiding nuclear war. Whether it means winning a particular point in Ukraine or not... Sorry Ukraine.

_fat_santa 3y ago
I would make a counterargument and say the "big stuff" (ie Nuclear War) is pretty well known by all sides. For the "big stuff" everyone from world leaders to regular folks who just pay attention to the news know because it gets brought up practically every day in the context of the war.
- LatteLazy 3y ago
  Well that depends right? I don't think anyone WANTS a nuclear exchange. But we're escalating pretty rapidly. A year ago we were "no lethal aid", now we're giving Ukraine F 16s. If Putin said "do that and I'll blow them the fuck up on the way over", who he be serious or not? If he tried would we retaliate and how? If a conventional missile strike fails will he hit it with an ICBM (much harder to intercept)? If so, we will not know whether it is nuclear armed until it hits. So do we (nuclear) strike back or just take the first hit? And if we hit back is Russia's early warning system smart enough to tell whether we're using a nuke? And all of this assumes 1000s of individual soldiers who we rely on to man these systems, report information and make no mistakes will be 100% on it... And these are all rational actions by rational actors none of whom actually wants a nuclear exchange right? And if someone on either side is NOT rational. Then there is even more need to know what it actually happening right? It would be nice to have answers to all of these questions without having to try them out and see...
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > But we're escalating pretty rapidly. A year ago we were "no lethal aid", now we're giving Ukraine F 16s. I don't know who the 'we' is in this scenario but the west has been giving Ukraine lethal aid ever since 2017.
    - LatteLazy 3y ago
      The earliest I am aware of is June 2020 (some small patrol boats) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain... Happy to be corrected. I believe that before then we were limited ourselves to "non-lethal aid" like radios and kevlar...
      - _kbh_ 3y ago
        > The earliest I am aware of is June 2020 (some small patrol boats) In 2017 the US sent javelins to Ukraine. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/23/us-officials-say-lethal-weapons-headed-to-ukraine.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/23/us-officials-say-lethal-...
    - red-iron-pine 3y ago
      Before 2017, as far back as 2015, when the "little green men" started showing up. Non-trivial -- but nowhere near as much as now -- amounts of ammo and other supplies.
  - watwut 3y ago
    > A year ago we were "no lethal aid", This is 100% false. A year ago, in July of 2022, Ukraine was already getting a lot of lethal aid. They started getting a lot of it pretty much by the beginning, when it was clear that Ukraine did not fold instanly in three days.
    - LatteLazy 3y ago
      You're correct, it started in June 2020. How time flies!
      - watwut 3y ago
        2017
watwut 3y ago
> And when Putin says "X is a red line" you want to KNOW whether he means it or not. He does not mean it. It was shown again and again and again. And in any case, spying in Austria will not reveal Putin thoughts.
- LatteLazy 3y ago
  Look at Putin's actions and you can see plenty of aggression when people cross a given red line. The invasions of both Ukraine and Georgia were well advertised before they happened. And even if this were not true, do you really want to bet the future of humanity on it? Presumably you will lead the march east yourself as Putin is all talk?
  - watwut 3y ago
    He was claiming red lines about 30 times during the last war, the lines were crossed and absolutely nothing happened. Again and again. Putin does not have actual red lines. He attacks when he thinks you are weak and does not attack when he thinks you are strong. Before latest full scale invasion of Ukraine happened, Putin claimed that there will be no invasion and it is just evil Americans lying about his plans. And during previous invasions, be claimed he is not invading at all, it was all supposed to be rebels. And annexation of Crimea had zero to do with any red lines too. > Presumably you will lead the march east yourself as Putin is all talk? I am not military leader nor politician. I can not possibly lead the march to anywhere.

_fat_santa 3y ago

I would make a counterargument and say the "big stuff" (ie Nuclear War) is pretty well known by all sides. For the "big stuff" everyone from world leaders to regular folks who just pay attention to the news know because it gets brought up practically every day in the context of the war.

LatteLazy 3y ago
Well that depends right? I don't think anyone WANTS a nuclear exchange. But we're escalating pretty rapidly. A year ago we were "no lethal aid", now we're giving Ukraine F 16s. If Putin said "do that and I'll blow them the fuck up on the way over", who he be serious or not? If he tried would we retaliate and how? If a conventional missile strike fails will he hit it with an ICBM (much harder to intercept)? If so, we will not know whether it is nuclear armed until it hits. So do we (nuclear) strike back or just take the first hit? And if we hit back is Russia's early warning system smart enough to tell whether we're using a nuke? And all of this assumes 1000s of individual soldiers who we rely on to man these systems, report information and make no mistakes will be 100% on it... And these are all rational actions by rational actors none of whom actually wants a nuclear exchange right? And if someone on either side is NOT rational. Then there is even more need to know what it actually happening right? It would be nice to have answers to all of these questions without having to try them out and see...
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > But we're escalating pretty rapidly. A year ago we were "no lethal aid", now we're giving Ukraine F 16s. I don't know who the 'we' is in this scenario but the west has been giving Ukraine lethal aid ever since 2017.
  - LatteLazy 3y ago
    The earliest I am aware of is June 2020 (some small patrol boats) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain... Happy to be corrected. I believe that before then we were limited ourselves to "non-lethal aid" like radios and kevlar...
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      > The earliest I am aware of is June 2020 (some small patrol boats) In 2017 the US sent javelins to Ukraine. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/23/us-officials-say-lethal-weapons-headed-to-ukraine.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/23/us-officials-say-lethal-...
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    Before 2017, as far back as 2015, when the "little green men" started showing up. Non-trivial -- but nowhere near as much as now -- amounts of ammo and other supplies.
- watwut 3y ago
  > A year ago we were "no lethal aid", This is 100% false. A year ago, in July of 2022, Ukraine was already getting a lot of lethal aid. They started getting a lot of it pretty much by the beginning, when it was clear that Ukraine did not fold instanly in three days.
  - LatteLazy 3y ago
    You're correct, it started in June 2020. How time flies!
    - watwut 3y ago
      2017

watwut 3y ago

> And when Putin says "X is a red line" you want to KNOW whether he means it or not. He does not mean it. It was shown again and again and again. And in any case, spying in Austria will not reveal Putin thoughts.

LatteLazy 3y ago
Look at Putin's actions and you can see plenty of aggression when people cross a given red line. The invasions of both Ukraine and Georgia were well advertised before they happened. And even if this were not true, do you really want to bet the future of humanity on it? Presumably you will lead the march east yourself as Putin is all talk?
- watwut 3y ago
  He was claiming red lines about 30 times during the last war, the lines were crossed and absolutely nothing happened. Again and again. Putin does not have actual red lines. He attacks when he thinks you are weak and does not attack when he thinks you are strong. Before latest full scale invasion of Ukraine happened, Putin claimed that there will be no invasion and it is just evil Americans lying about his plans. And during previous invasions, be claimed he is not invading at all, it was all supposed to be rebels. And annexation of Crimea had zero to do with any red lines too. > Presumably you will lead the march east yourself as Putin is all talk? I am not military leader nor politician. I can not possibly lead the march to anywhere.