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I don't totally understand what drives people to project demand for urban residential when urban office is in decline and is being removed. Historically people

I don't totally understand what drives people to project demand for urban residential when urban office is in decline and is being removed. Historically people moved to the cities because that's where the work was. What will drive people to cities when that's no longer true? Granted some people really enjoy "density" but I suspect most people prefer more space / a yard / etc if the lack of commute enables then to spread out.

spaced-out 3y ago
People aren't "projecting" demand, the demand is being driven by the market. Downtown apartments (in good condition) are expensive because they are in high demand while office space is getting harder and harder to fill. If you own a bunch of downtown commercial real estate, you don't need to be a business guru to see that you could be making a lot more money if you could rent that space out as apartments.
- xyzelement 3y ago
  // Downtown apartments (in good condition) are expensive because they are in high demand Yup, my question is - do we expect this to hold when downtown is no longer the place to be for work.
  - lovich 3y ago
    It’s the place where shit is though, even beyond work. My wife and I moved out of Boston due to the pricing, but if we could afford it while maintaining our current savings rate we’d move back in a heartbeat even though we both have remote jobs. The density allows for so many choices in food and entertainment that you can’t get in the suburbs or countryside. And that’s without even accounting for the lack of needing a car which is a constant headache in terms of maintenance and logistics that I wish I could just be rid of
    - xyzelement 3y ago
      Sure, but it doesn't sound like you have kids (yet) based on how you are describing it. Sorry if that's a wrong assumption. I totally get how at the period of life before you have kids, the city has advantages but once you have kids that formula flips quite a bit (eg: you care about access to Thai food less, while the backyard starts to matter a lot.) To put it in the terms of my up-thread post - that still sounds like a relatively smaller total demand vs before (eg, before COVID I suggested buying a larger place so we could have kids in NYC and I would have an easy commute - now I couldn't care less about being there vs my nice burb)
      - ghaff 3y ago
        I don't have kids. But still appreciate the quiet/space of the exurb and going into town for the theater is still not that big a deal. And I don't really eat out a lot if I'm not traveling. So, yeah, not a lot of interest in living in the city and would probably need a car for weekend activities, etc. anyway (which most of my urban friends have anyway). I could afford to live in the city if I wanted to but I choose not to.
        xyzelement 3y ago
        Now you are all set to have a buncha kids :)
      - lovich 3y ago
        I’m late 30s. You’re right about not having kids but that’s because I don’t want any. Even if I did though, I’d be looking at moving to an area with a good school system, and those areas are just as expensive as living in a city with multiple school options, ex: brookline
ghaff 3y ago
A lot of (especially younger) people project their own urban living preferences--even if the absence of a need to go into an urban office--onto the population as a whole. But a net migration to cities isn't a law of nature. To the current example, there was a net outflow of population from Boston until the late nineties and most of the large computer industry companies were out in the suburbs/exurbs. Of course, these things are also self-reinforcing cycles. If people move out, housing prices come down but a lot of the amenities that lead many people to live in the city in the first plce may go away as well.

spaced-out 3y ago

People aren't "projecting" demand, the demand is being driven by the market. Downtown apartments (in good condition) are expensive because they are in high demand while office space is getting harder and harder to fill. If you own a bunch of downtown commercial real estate, you don't need to be a business guru to see that you could be making a lot more money if you could rent that space out as apartments.

xyzelement 3y ago
// Downtown apartments (in good condition) are expensive because they are in high demand Yup, my question is - do we expect this to hold when downtown is no longer the place to be for work.
- lovich 3y ago
  It’s the place where shit is though, even beyond work. My wife and I moved out of Boston due to the pricing, but if we could afford it while maintaining our current savings rate we’d move back in a heartbeat even though we both have remote jobs. The density allows for so many choices in food and entertainment that you can’t get in the suburbs or countryside. And that’s without even accounting for the lack of needing a car which is a constant headache in terms of maintenance and logistics that I wish I could just be rid of
  - xyzelement 3y ago
    Sure, but it doesn't sound like you have kids (yet) based on how you are describing it. Sorry if that's a wrong assumption. I totally get how at the period of life before you have kids, the city has advantages but once you have kids that formula flips quite a bit (eg: you care about access to Thai food less, while the backyard starts to matter a lot.) To put it in the terms of my up-thread post - that still sounds like a relatively smaller total demand vs before (eg, before COVID I suggested buying a larger place so we could have kids in NYC and I would have an easy commute - now I couldn't care less about being there vs my nice burb)
    - ghaff 3y ago
      I don't have kids. But still appreciate the quiet/space of the exurb and going into town for the theater is still not that big a deal. And I don't really eat out a lot if I'm not traveling. So, yeah, not a lot of interest in living in the city and would probably need a car for weekend activities, etc. anyway (which most of my urban friends have anyway). I could afford to live in the city if I wanted to but I choose not to.
      - xyzelement 3y ago
        Now you are all set to have a buncha kids :)
    - lovich 3y ago
      I’m late 30s. You’re right about not having kids but that’s because I don’t want any. Even if I did though, I’d be looking at moving to an area with a good school system, and those areas are just as expensive as living in a city with multiple school options, ex: brookline

ghaff 3y ago

A lot of (especially younger) people project their own urban living preferences--even if the absence of a need to go into an urban office--onto the population as a whole. But a net migration to cities isn't a law of nature. To the current example, there was a net outflow of population from Boston until the late nineties and most of the large computer industry companies were out in the suburbs/exurbs. Of course, these things are also self-reinforcing cycles. If people move out, housing prices come down but a lot of the amenities that lead many people to live in the city in the first plce may go away as well.