5 ms·

I don't have any special insight into what happened at Oragenics (my full context on this application includes what's listed at the link, plus a short call with

I don't have any special insight into what happened at Oragenics (my full context on this application includes what's listed at the link, plus a short call with Aaron about his fundraising plans). There's a little more color on the Wikipedia page for the cavity vaccine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caries_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caries_vaccine A few HN commenters seem to think that there's a nefarious explanation where a cavity wonder treatment would be unprofitable to develop; I think that's possible, but also it could just be that the company dropped the ball. Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

jaggederest 3y ago
I've looked at it pretty extensively over the years and the explanation is pretty obvious: the cost to run the trials would have been ruinous for the return. Look at the clinical requirements for the stage 1 and 2 trials - IRB specified only people without teeth and some other requirement which was prohibitive, like a clean room, or only terminal patients, or something. It's clear they couldn't raise $10b to fund trials on a timely basis for something that was far from a sure thing - it worked in a couple cases, but imagine if it caused increased heart disease or "no clinical benefit" and you'd poured billions into it.
- jansan 3y ago
  Hello billionaires, how about becoming known by future generation as "the person who eradicated cavities"?
  - jaggederest 3y ago
    Yeah that would probably get your name on a lot of high schools, if that's your thing. On the other hand, it wouldn't eliminate oral hygiene, for both the obvious olfactory and comfort reasons, as well as gingivitis and other non-caries oral health issues.
    - justinclift 3y ago
      It'd be funny if it accidentally eliminated Alzheimer's disease as a side effect though. ;)
  - brookst 3y ago
    I’ve got my checkbook here but I am scared of being remembered as “the person who eradicated teeth”
- petra 3y ago
  Does anybody has access for the document with the clinical requirements ? It seems like an interesting problem.
  - jaggederest 3y ago
    Here's a related document, not sure if this is where I first read it though https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174940/000156459019010173/ogen-10k_20181231.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174940/000156459019... Relevant portion excerpted: > Replacement Therapy > > Our SMaRT Replacement Therapy is based on the creation of a genetically modified strain of bacteria that colonizes in the oral cavity and replaces native bacteria that cause tooth decay. Our SMaRT Replacement Therapy product candidate is designed to be a painless, one-time, five-minute topical treatment applied to the teeth that has the potential to offer lifelong protection against dental caries, or tooth decay. While we commenced a Phase 1b clinical trial for SMaRT Replacement Therapy during the first quarter of 2011, the very restrictive trial enrollment criteria required by the FDA made the enrollment of candidates meeting the restrictive criteria difficult. This enrollment difficulty was also present in our Phase 1a clinical trial. Due to the enrollment difficulties we encountered with our initial Phase 1a clinical trial and with our Phase 1b clinical trial, we determined to discontinue pursuit of our Phase 1b clinical trial. Our focus for the SMaRT Replacement Therapy technology is on possible partnering opportunities that may exist.
    - another2another 3y ago
      For something that could benefit all of humanity (and the sugar industry), we have a whole planet we could utilize for trials. Couldn't we outsource at least the initial stages somewhere where the cost would be less for the same clinical criteria?
- mkmk 3y ago
  $10b?!
TeMPOraL 3y ago
> Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" Don't forget about Hanlon's handgun: don't attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by systemic incentives promoting malice.
- ClumsyPilot 3y ago
  exactly, playing dumb cant be a free get-out-of-jail card

jaggederest 3y ago

I've looked at it pretty extensively over the years and the explanation is pretty obvious: the cost to run the trials would have been ruinous for the return. Look at the clinical requirements for the stage 1 and 2 trials - IRB specified only people without teeth and some other requirement which was prohibitive, like a clean room, or only terminal patients, or something. It's clear they couldn't raise $10b to fund trials on a timely basis for something that was far from a sure thing - it worked in a couple cases, but imagine if it caused increased heart disease or "no clinical benefit" and you'd poured billions into it.

jansan 3y ago
Hello billionaires, how about becoming known by future generation as "the person who eradicated cavities"?
- jaggederest 3y ago
  Yeah that would probably get your name on a lot of high schools, if that's your thing. On the other hand, it wouldn't eliminate oral hygiene, for both the obvious olfactory and comfort reasons, as well as gingivitis and other non-caries oral health issues.
  - justinclift 3y ago
    It'd be funny if it accidentally eliminated Alzheimer's disease as a side effect though. ;)
- brookst 3y ago
  I’ve got my checkbook here but I am scared of being remembered as “the person who eradicated teeth”
petra 3y ago
Does anybody has access for the document with the clinical requirements ? It seems like an interesting problem.
- jaggederest 3y ago
  Here's a related document, not sure if this is where I first read it though https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174940/000156459019010173/ogen-10k_20181231.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174940/000156459019... Relevant portion excerpted: > Replacement Therapy > > Our SMaRT Replacement Therapy is based on the creation of a genetically modified strain of bacteria that colonizes in the oral cavity and replaces native bacteria that cause tooth decay. Our SMaRT Replacement Therapy product candidate is designed to be a painless, one-time, five-minute topical treatment applied to the teeth that has the potential to offer lifelong protection against dental caries, or tooth decay. While we commenced a Phase 1b clinical trial for SMaRT Replacement Therapy during the first quarter of 2011, the very restrictive trial enrollment criteria required by the FDA made the enrollment of candidates meeting the restrictive criteria difficult. This enrollment difficulty was also present in our Phase 1a clinical trial. Due to the enrollment difficulties we encountered with our initial Phase 1a clinical trial and with our Phase 1b clinical trial, we determined to discontinue pursuit of our Phase 1b clinical trial. Our focus for the SMaRT Replacement Therapy technology is on possible partnering opportunities that may exist.
  - another2another 3y ago
    For something that could benefit all of humanity (and the sugar industry), we have a whole planet we could utilize for trials. Couldn't we outsource at least the initial stages somewhere where the cost would be less for the same clinical criteria?
mkmk 3y ago
$10b?!

TeMPOraL 3y ago

> Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" Don't forget about Hanlon's handgun: don't attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by systemic incentives promoting malice.

ClumsyPilot 3y ago
exactly, playing dumb cant be a free get-out-of-jail card