3 ms·

LEI growth rate is very negative: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicator...

• JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  The main financial drag on the LEI change has since softened [1], as have the new orders component of the ISM index [2] and consumer confidence [3], the main non-financial ones. In line with the trend of June portending better months ahead than did May. Given we're attempting a novel monetary maneuver--essentially, the opposite of stagflation--I'd widen my error bars on macroeconomic heuristics. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF/ [2] https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/ https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/... [3] https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence