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Do the people cheering this understand that inflation is not a 'baseline' measurement, but a relative one? CPI (which inflation is measured off of) is based on
by somenameforme 3y ago
Do the people cheering this understand that inflation is not a 'baseline' measurement, but a relative one? CPI (which inflation is measured off of) is based on the cost of a fixed bucket of goods, which you can see here [1]. In January 2020, this bucket of goods cost $259 units. Today it costs $304. For context, had the CPI maintained target interest levels of 2% per annum, then today that bucket of goods 'should' cost somewhere around $278.
And even this substantially inflated bucket cost continues to rise, quite rapidly. In other words, this news does not mean that prices are going to go down - let alone return to the normal. A slowing inflation rate is better than the opposite, but that's really all this is. We are not at the finish line or anywhere remotely near to it, yet. It will be important to see how inflation continues, especially as wages adjust. In particular, a raise of ~18% over the past 3 years (in total), would be the break-even point. Below that and you'd be seeing a real decline in wages, which I think is almost certainly the vast majority of people.
[1] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
- sangnoir 3y ago> Do the people cheering this understand that inflation is not a 'baseline' measurement, but a relative one? Yes, of course. Inflation is a derivative, and when the rate at which prices were increasing slows down: that is worth cheering. It's a good thing (for consumers) in and of itself.
- ryanwaggoner 3y agoYes, I think most people who are paying any attention to either inflation rates or the economy know that an inflation rate of 2% does not imply deflation. And there is no finish line, this is an infinite game, not a finite one. Lastly, wages are also up over the last three years (that’s a huge driver of inflation!). Obviouslyy not evenly distributed, but I don’t think you can make the case that real wages are sharply decreasing (especially once you remove the weird outlier spike that 2020 gave us): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q