4 ms·

The question is whether the prospect of a WGA deal (and, admittedly, having to go back to the table with SAG-AFTRA and IATSE) is so unpalatable to the studios t

The question is whether the prospect of a WGA deal (and, admittedly, having to go back to the table with SAG-AFTRA and IATSE) is so unpalatable to the studios that they're willing to take the hit of a significant gap in theater releases and a year of lost TV production, or if this is a last-ditch effort to scare the Guild into taking a deal as bad as the one the DGA bought into. This is also aimed at the actors, since their strike kicks off at midnight tonight if no deal's reached, and that'll bring everything to a halt -- not just in Hollywood, but abroad, too. (Also, it can't be lost on actors or below-the-line talent that AI is probably a greater threat to their jobs than to writers: I'm skeptical that LLMs are going to replace screenwriters in any serious way, but a whole lot of AI technologies are just on the cusp of being able to hollow out everyone from the cinematographer on down.) I think the insistence that AMPTP is totally unified on forcing the writers into homelessness is a bit villainously overblown; sure, streaming-only companies like Netflix can weather this by just picking up more global content and unscripted work, but keeping the strike going through Q4 is going to expose some real strategic fissures between streamers, networks, and studios that cash hoarding alone isn't going to paper over, especially since the studios' bets on blockbusters and in-house streaming aren't paying off. If AMPTP is really serious about this, the studio chiefs could end up taking down their own companies by exposing them to potentially multiple quarters without significant new content availability. With IATSE negotiations coming up in 2024, it seems unlikely to me that the studios are willing to lose the rest of this year and then go right back into a strike situation.

babypuncher 3y ago
My understanding is that it's companies like Netflix that are hardlining on the strike while Disney and other traditional studios have been more interested in negotiating. Probably because, like you mentioned, Netflix can more easily lean on foreign content. I think Netflix is being particularly shitty here because they negotiated unique terms with the unions 10 years ago under the guise of being a new business model. They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys.
- aleph_minus_one 3y ago
  > They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys. Well, playing by the same rules as the big boys can also be attained if the big boys join the rules that Netflix negotiated (which are, of course, less favorable for the writers). I do believe that many studio executives will at least attempt to make use of this once-in-a-life opportunity. ;-)
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> that they're willing to take the hit of a significant gap in theater releases and a year of lost TV production Practically every studio was announcing cuts to programming spend in the months preceding the strike. An industry-wide pause means nobody loses market share while delaying expenses.
doctorpangloss 3y ago
> ...AI is probably a greater threat to their jobs than to writers: I'm [making an accurate observation], but [here's some other speculation.] There are no LLMs writing scripts for TV productions today, and yet, WGA writers are out of work. Something political - I mean, something that is totally controlled by humans, and can be turned around with a stroke of a pen, if collectively - has the biggest impact on writers' work. Not technology. In case you're confused where my opinions lie, I do support the writers, because this is what they are actually asking for: > But the fear is that studios will use AI to turn out a crappy first draft, and then turn it over to writers who they hire for a few days or a week to turn it into something good. And they won’t pay them as if it’s an original script. That is the fear. https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-technology-ban-1235610076/ https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-tech... The whole article is about how studios have a tool that could seemingly pass legal muster and abrogate a lot of the economic obligations they have when they start an engagement with a writer. Basically via tricks. It's about politics. Writers want to use AI. They also want to use Google and pirate movies and TV shows and read other people's books and file the serial numbers off of the characters and do all sorts of things that have complex copyright implications. This isn't about luddites or whatever the fuck. What they don't want is for studios to do tricks. They want "we will not use this to do tricks where we pay you to do something that has for the last 20 years meant X and then when it turns out you make us a ton of money, it will actually mean Y." That sounds like a reasonable contract term for me. If you see a trick coming from a mile away; if your opposing party has a trick-manufacturing machine overseen only by octogenarians, and you have collective bargaining power, what else can you do?
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > this is what they are actually asking for There's a lot of other stuff, like staffing requirements and increased pay, that the studios are frankly not in a position to concede on. This strike should have been staged in 2021, or not at all.
  - doctorpangloss 3y ago
    > that the studios are frankly not in a position to concede on. This strike should have been staged in 2021, or not at all. You should look at the Sony hack and see for yourself what a studio does and how it is built. You don't have to rely on any speculation whatsoever. I know gaming better. Steam gives away for free all the proprietary data movie studios hoard. A few people with Steam data, if they're numerate, can do the work of 1,000 movie studio people. People are worrying about LLMs and economics and all this bullshit. It's all political, in the strict sense of the outcomes are controlled entirely by people and can change with the stroke of the pen. The real thing the two sides should be worrying about is not this speculative AI bullshit or copyright law. It's how Hollywood is working more like the games industry does.
philwelch 3y ago
> I'm skeptical that LLMs are going to replace screenwriters in any serious way I have seen at least one movie that grossed a billion dollars that could have very well been written by an LLM. In fact, that was one of my immediate impressions while watching that movie. I don’t think it would be sustainable to do this across the industry but it could easily be done.

babypuncher 3y ago

My understanding is that it's companies like Netflix that are hardlining on the strike while Disney and other traditional studios have been more interested in negotiating. Probably because, like you mentioned, Netflix can more easily lean on foreign content. I think Netflix is being particularly shitty here because they negotiated unique terms with the unions 10 years ago under the guise of being a new business model. They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys.

aleph_minus_one 3y ago
> They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys. Well, playing by the same rules as the big boys can also be attained if the big boys join the rules that Netflix negotiated (which are, of course, less favorable for the writers). I do believe that many studio executives will at least attempt to make use of this once-in-a-life opportunity. ;-)

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> that they're willing to take the hit of a significant gap in theater releases and a year of lost TV production Practically every studio was announcing cuts to programming spend in the months preceding the strike. An industry-wide pause means nobody loses market share while delaying expenses.

doctorpangloss 3y ago

> ...AI is probably a greater threat to their jobs than to writers: I'm [making an accurate observation], but [here's some other speculation.] There are no LLMs writing scripts for TV productions today, and yet, WGA writers are out of work. Something political - I mean, something that is totally controlled by humans, and can be turned around with a stroke of a pen, if collectively - has the biggest impact on writers' work. Not technology. In case you're confused where my opinions lie, I do support the writers, because this is what they are actually asking for: > But the fear is that studios will use AI to turn out a crappy first draft, and then turn it over to writers who they hire for a few days or a week to turn it into something good. And they won’t pay them as if it’s an original script. That is the fear. https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-technology-ban-1235610076/ https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-tech... The whole article is about how studios have a tool that could seemingly pass legal muster and abrogate a lot of the economic obligations they have when they start an engagement with a writer. Basically via tricks. It's about politics. Writers want to use AI. They also want to use Google and pirate movies and TV shows and read other people's books and file the serial numbers off of the characters and do all sorts of things that have complex copyright implications. This isn't about luddites or whatever the fuck. What they don't want is for studios to do tricks. They want "we will not use this to do tricks where we pay you to do something that has for the last 20 years meant X and then when it turns out you make us a ton of money, it will actually mean Y." That sounds like a reasonable contract term for me. If you see a trick coming from a mile away; if your opposing party has a trick-manufacturing machine overseen only by octogenarians, and you have collective bargaining power, what else can you do?

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> this is what they are actually asking for There's a lot of other stuff, like staffing requirements and increased pay, that the studios are frankly not in a position to concede on. This strike should have been staged in 2021, or not at all.
- doctorpangloss 3y ago
  > that the studios are frankly not in a position to concede on. This strike should have been staged in 2021, or not at all. You should look at the Sony hack and see for yourself what a studio does and how it is built. You don't have to rely on any speculation whatsoever. I know gaming better. Steam gives away for free all the proprietary data movie studios hoard. A few people with Steam data, if they're numerate, can do the work of 1,000 movie studio people. People are worrying about LLMs and economics and all this bullshit. It's all political, in the strict sense of the outcomes are controlled entirely by people and can change with the stroke of the pen. The real thing the two sides should be worrying about is not this speculative AI bullshit or copyright law. It's how Hollywood is working more like the games industry does.

philwelch 3y ago

> I'm skeptical that LLMs are going to replace screenwriters in any serious way I have seen at least one movie that grossed a billion dollars that could have very well been written by an LLM. In fact, that was one of my immediate impressions while watching that movie. I don’t think it would be sustainable to do this across the industry but it could easily be done.