Yes, predicting correctly does pay. Currently 80% long with cost basis mostly around last October/SVB lows in primarily REITs and financials/lenders. Market wi

Yes, predicting correctly does pay. Currently 80% long with cost basis mostly around last October/SVB lows in primarily REITs and financials/lenders. Market will likely rally over next few months (smaller caps), until the reality sets in on sticky inflation. If Fed sees through the short-term data and signals this, then market will pull back soon, otherwise will happen later in the year. Inflation falling back to 2% and staying there with 6% wage gains and rallying markets/commodities is a fantasy. A quite obvious one to predict, yes, if you study the history of monetary policy for more than a few minutes. There is always the possibility of a trapdoor recession though. By some measures household accumulated savings are close to depleting, student loans resuming... and consumer credit measures are looking weaker. We have a stimulus impulse thats fading competing against a structurally strong economy. Which one will win in the end? If the signs start pointing in that direction, then it will be time to pivot to a recession trade. You just have to be there first