5 ms·

Aren't we always a small disaster away from a really big problem?

gjsman-1000 3y ago
"It hasn't happened yet, therefore it can't happen." Well, yes, we are always at that risk... but even basic numbers are getting much worse. Depending on who you ask, about 37% of Americans (give-or-take) cannot withstand a sudden $400 expense without using debt. This is ~5% higher than it was a year before, in 2021 when it was 32%. https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm It goes without saying that there is a finite ceiling for how much debt a person can obtain. When 1/3 of the country risks hitting that ceiling with how debt use has increased, is unable to get more debt, and can't afford $400; you have a perfect recipe for extreme social unrest in the future if things don't turn around. It's made worse by inflation eating away at pay, and also the record-high APRs that credit cards are demanding; and high rates in general for debt of any kind.
- ryanwaggoner 3y ago
  This number was 50% back in 2013, so I’m not sure it’s the canary in the coalmine that you’re making it out to be.
  - oneTbrain23 3y ago
    In 2013, there was no Ukraininian war, and China and Japan willing to hold huge chunk of American bonds to allow financing of Afghan-Iraq wars. There is no brics too with cryptocurrencies/digital negligible on the far far fringe. Today, American concluded Afghan and Iraq wars with humiliation defeat. Entire "war investments" didn't yielded a single embassy over there let alone the fable 3T$ mining rights of lithium there. Chinese now actively pursuing space explorations and photonic chips while US losing tons of bright Indian+Chinese scholars coming over. Plus, in terms of poor people and population growth, there are more today than 2013. Plus Siberia is thawing making Russia now more hospitalable than Bush time. Non of American hypersonic missiles operational while Russian and Chinese are in the process of changing all their nuke missiles to newer missiles. American Patriots and Thaad are widely jokes in military industries. And the greatest kicker is in the east for centuries there are prophecies of American destructions from possibily nukes. Even John Titor in the early Bush era or late Clinton era hinted his timeline USA nuked by Russia and China. With current Biden and woke cultures permeating entire USA, those kind of economic numbers would force American governments to do very stupid thing since lacking room to manuerve. It's canary, but dead or alive, miners dont care.
    - ryanwaggoner 3y ago
      I’m sure you could have penned a similar screed in 2013.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > inflation eating away at pay Real wages are lower than their pandemic highs, but higher than they've been at any point [EDIT: before] late 2019 [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > Real wages are lower than their pandemic highs, but higher than they've been at any point since late 2019 This description is self-contradictory. I think you mean “before” not “since”.
- spywaregorilla 3y ago
  You're making a trend line out of two data points. One of which was the peak of the pandemic. If you remove 2021, there's nothing particularly noteworthy about where we are right now.

"It hasn't happened yet, therefore it can't happen." Well, yes, we are always at that risk... but even basic numbers are getting much worse. Depending on who you ask, about 37% of Americans (give-or-take) cannot withstand a sudden $400 expense without using debt. This is ~5% higher than it was a year before, in 2021 when it was 32%. https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm It goes without saying that there is a finite ceiling for how much debt a person can obtain. When 1/3 of the country risks hitting that ceiling with how debt use has increased, is unable to get more debt, and can't afford $400; you have a perfect recipe for extreme social unrest in the future if things don't turn around. It's made worse by inflation eating away at pay, and also the record-high APRs that credit cards are demanding; and high rates in general for debt of any kind.

ryanwaggoner 3y ago
This number was 50% back in 2013, so I’m not sure it’s the canary in the coalmine that you’re making it out to be.
- oneTbrain23 3y ago
  In 2013, there was no Ukraininian war, and China and Japan willing to hold huge chunk of American bonds to allow financing of Afghan-Iraq wars. There is no brics too with cryptocurrencies/digital negligible on the far far fringe. Today, American concluded Afghan and Iraq wars with humiliation defeat. Entire "war investments" didn't yielded a single embassy over there let alone the fable 3T$ mining rights of lithium there. Chinese now actively pursuing space explorations and photonic chips while US losing tons of bright Indian+Chinese scholars coming over. Plus, in terms of poor people and population growth, there are more today than 2013. Plus Siberia is thawing making Russia now more hospitalable than Bush time. Non of American hypersonic missiles operational while Russian and Chinese are in the process of changing all their nuke missiles to newer missiles. American Patriots and Thaad are widely jokes in military industries. And the greatest kicker is in the east for centuries there are prophecies of American destructions from possibily nukes. Even John Titor in the early Bush era or late Clinton era hinted his timeline USA nuked by Russia and China. With current Biden and woke cultures permeating entire USA, those kind of economic numbers would force American governments to do very stupid thing since lacking room to manuerve. It's canary, but dead or alive, miners dont care.
  - ryanwaggoner 3y ago
    I’m sure you could have penned a similar screed in 2013.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> inflation eating away at pay Real wages are lower than their pandemic highs, but higher than they've been at any point [EDIT: before] late 2019 [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Real wages are lower than their pandemic highs, but higher than they've been at any point since late 2019 This description is self-contradictory. I think you mean “before” not “since”.
spywaregorilla 3y ago
You're making a trend line out of two data points. One of which was the peak of the pandemic. If you remove 2021, there's nothing particularly noteworthy about where we are right now.