The spread on the 30-year is usually ~2.5% higher than short-term rates: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?typ

The spread on the 30-year is usually ~2.5% higher than short-term rates: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2015 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/... I'm not a bond-pricing wizard, but if for N years, you expect short-term rates to be higher than long-term rates, that has to get priced into the long-term spread (putting it above the normal spread over the short-term durations). This absolutely does not mean the market expects short-term rates of ~4% indefinitely.