4 ms·

Well, what does month over month say? We don't have to hae a recession to kill inflation. We can just have a soft-landing.

adam_arthur 3y ago
MoM gives you a more current view of the state of inflation. Even better is to annualize the previous 3m, 6m, 12m Why care about inflation at all? Well, you can reference the history of most South American countries for that
- jonnycomputer 3y ago
  Ok Adam "I answer questions you didn't really have" Arthur.
  - adam_arthur 3y ago
    You had one question in your comment which I answered, whether rhetorical or not. Saying "we can have a soft landing" with no context or supporting reasoning isn't really saying anything at all. History shows only really 1 instance of a "soft landing", and the economy was less overheated and policy much more proactive back then. Back then the Fed actually tried to move ahead of inflation by assessing structural tightness... not reactive based on CPI
    - jonnycomputer 3y ago
      No, I asked how the MoM compares to the YoY. Not for a definition of MoM. Anyway, here is MoM. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/inflation-at-month-on-month-headline-core-sticky-trimmed-mean-instantaneous https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/inflation-at-month-... You are correct that the decline is exaggerated by base effects; but it's also true that there has been a fairly steady decline last few quarters (disinflation)
      - adam_arthur 3y ago
        The first line of my original comment states that MoM CPI will be low over the next few months, in my opinion from factors that will ultimately be fleeting. So you seem to be having a conversation with yourself that is unrelated to my original post. MoM inflation on its own doesn't tell you anything about structural inflation. MoM fell many times in the 70s/80s only to rebound later due to overly optimistic policy makers assuming a downward trajectory would be sustained without further action from them. It's effectively the exact same situation we're in now... only question is whether the Fed chooses to repeat that path or not
lamontcg 3y ago
"economists have correctly predicted 10 of the last 0 soft landings" to paraphrase the aphorism.

adam_arthur 3y ago

MoM gives you a more current view of the state of inflation. Even better is to annualize the previous 3m, 6m, 12m Why care about inflation at all? Well, you can reference the history of most South American countries for that

jonnycomputer 3y ago
Ok Adam "I answer questions you didn't really have" Arthur.
- adam_arthur 3y ago
  You had one question in your comment which I answered, whether rhetorical or not. Saying "we can have a soft landing" with no context or supporting reasoning isn't really saying anything at all. History shows only really 1 instance of a "soft landing", and the economy was less overheated and policy much more proactive back then. Back then the Fed actually tried to move ahead of inflation by assessing structural tightness... not reactive based on CPI
  - jonnycomputer 3y ago
    No, I asked how the MoM compares to the YoY. Not for a definition of MoM. Anyway, here is MoM. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/inflation-at-month-on-month-headline-core-sticky-trimmed-mean-instantaneous https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/inflation-at-month-... You are correct that the decline is exaggerated by base effects; but it's also true that there has been a fairly steady decline last few quarters (disinflation)
    - adam_arthur 3y ago
      The first line of my original comment states that MoM CPI will be low over the next few months, in my opinion from factors that will ultimately be fleeting. So you seem to be having a conversation with yourself that is unrelated to my original post. MoM inflation on its own doesn't tell you anything about structural inflation. MoM fell many times in the 70s/80s only to rebound later due to overly optimistic policy makers assuming a downward trajectory would be sustained without further action from them. It's effectively the exact same situation we're in now... only question is whether the Fed chooses to repeat that path or not

lamontcg 3y ago

"economists have correctly predicted 10 of the last 0 soft landings" to paraphrase the aphorism.